فهرست مطالب

مطالعات جغرافیایی نواحی ساحلی - سال سوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 8، بهار 1401)
  • سال سوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 8، بهار 1401)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1401/03/04
  • تعداد عناوین: 6
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  • صادق منعم لفمجانی، سید محمود شبگو منصف*، علی قلی پورسلیمانی صفحات 5-26

    جایگاه رقابتی برند مقصد، ارایه چارچوبی از جانب مقصدهاست که از طریق آن می توانند متمایز بودن خود را از مقاصد دیگر نشان دهند. در تحقیقات مختلف به جنبه های متنوعی از برندهای گردشگری پرداخته شد، اما به موضوع جایگاه یابی رقابتی برند گردشگری پرداخته نشده است. جایگاه یابی رقابتی برند نه تنها یک تصویر مثبت در ذهن مخاطب نسبت به رقبا ایجاد می کند بلکه با تبدیل مزیت های نسبی به مزیت های رقابتی باعث توسعه در ابعاد مختلف و هویت بخشی به آن می گردد. هدف این پژوهش ارایه مدل از عوامل تاثیرگذار و پیامدهای جایگاه رقابتی برند گردشگری در استان گیلان است. این پژوهش از نوع ترکیبی است که در بخش کیفی آن از الگوی نظام مند نظریه داده بنیاد استفاده شده است. همچنین بر حسب روش گردآوری داده ها از نوع تحقیقات میدانی محسوب می شود. جامعه آماری پژوهش اساتید رشته مدیریت و جغرافیای دانشگاه ها و مدیران حوزه گردشگری در استان گیلان هستند. در بخش کیفی از نمونه گیری نظری یکی از انواع نمونه گیری هدفمند استفاده گردید و تعداد حجم نمونه با توجه به اشباع نظری 11 نفر بوده است. نتایج تحلیل داده های حاصل از مصاحبه های نیمه ساختاریافته جهت تدوین الگوی جایگاه رقابتی برند گردشگری استان گیلان به روش کدگذاری نشان داد که 321 کدباز شناسایی و در قالب 26 مفهوم طبقه بندی و بر اساس رهیافت استراوس و کوربین (1998) در هفت مقوله اصلی شامل منابع رقابتی، جایگاه رقابتی برند گیلان، عوامل زمینه ای، مدیریت مقصد و عملیات جایگاه یابی و برندسازی مقصد، عوامل مداخله گر و پیامدها تقسیم بندی شدند. همچنین به منظور سنجش مدل طراحی شده در بخش کمی پژوهش از نظرات 169 نفر از مدیران، کارشناسان ارشد و کارشناسان حوزه گردشگری در استان گیلان استفاده شد. نتایج این بخش نیز نشان از برازش مناسب مدل طراحی شده با داده های به دست آمده داشت. سایر نتایج نیز نشان دادند که کلیدی ترین عامل جایگاه یابی برند مقصد در ذهن مشتریان، عملیات مربوط به جایگاه یابی، برندسازی و تبلیغات آن مقصد بوده و تمامی عوامل دیگر با اجرای صحیح این عامل نمود بارزتری خواهند داشت.

    کلیدواژگان: جایگاه یابی مقصد، برند گردشگری، رقابت پذیری مقصد، جایگاه رقابتی برند مقصد
  • مهدی حسین پور*، محسن کلانتری، عیسی پیری صفحات 27-43

    شهر به عنوان کلیتی به هم پیوسته، به سازمانی مقتدر با مدیریتی یکپارچه نیازمند است. با ورود بخش خصوصی و گروه های داوطلب به عرصه سیاستگذاری و حکومت، می توانیم شاهد شکل مطلوب تری از اداره شهر باشیم. شهرها برای مدیریت و اداره خود راهی به جزء زمینه سازی برای توسعه دموکراسی نیافته اند که تمام این ها به شیوه جدیدی از اداره شهرها به نام حکمروایی خوب شهری دلالت دارد. این الگو به عنوان فرایند مشارکتی توسعه تعریف می شود که به موجب آن همه بهره وران شامل حکومت، بخش خصوصی و جامعه مدنی راهی را برای حل مشکلات فرایند شهری شدن سریع فراهم می کنند. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و بررسی بازیگران تاثیرگذار و اصلی در حکمروایی خوب شهر ارومیه است. فرایند حاکم بر این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر نوع روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. ماهیت داده ها کیفی و کمی و روش گردآوری داده ها به صورت کتابخانه ای، میدانی (پرسش نامه تاثیرات متقابل) است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل 35 نفر از کارشناسان حوزه برنامه ریزی شهری، مدیران شهری و پژوهشگران (22نفر مدیر و کارشناس و 13 نفر پژوهشگر) به روش دلفی انتخاب شدند و روش نمونه گیری در این پژوهش گلوله برفی است. بازیگران اصلی و تاثیرگذار در محیط نرم افزار Mactor مورد تحلیل و اقدام به تعیین میزان رقابت پذیری، همگرایی و توافق بین بازیگران اصلی شده است. 12 بازیگر اصلی و تاثیرگذار در حکمروایی خوب شهر ارومیه مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که؛ اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم بین بازیگران بیانگر بیشترین تعداد اثرگذاری برای بازیگر استانداری با 187 اثر بوده است. بیشترین میزان رقابت پذیری مربوط به شبکه های اجتماعی با میزان 83/1 می باشد. توسعه راه ها، مسکن و ساماندهی مدیریت شهری به میزان 12 اتفاق بر هدف مشخص گردیده است.

    کلیدواژگان: حکمروایی خوب شهری، تحلیل بازیگران، Mactor، ارومیه
  • سهراب قائدی*، مرتضی اسمعیل نژاد صفحات 45-60

    بادهای شدید ساحلی به صورت مستقیم و یا با مواج نمودن آب های ساحلی می توانند موجب آسیب رسیدن به تاسیسات و اختلال در فعالیت های مختلف انسان از جمله کشتیرانی، بازرگانی، تفریحی و... گردد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از داده های باد بیشینه ی ایستگاه های سواحل شمالی و جنوبی ایران، وردایی زمانی و مکانی آنها بررسی شد. بررسی آماری میانگین سرعت بادهای بیشینه نشان می دهد که در سواحل خلیج فارس، سرعت باد بیش از سایر سواحل است و همچنین تغییرات ماهانه باد بیشینه بیانگر آن است که بیشینه ی میانگین ماهانه مربوط به ماه آبان در بندر انزلی و کمینه سرعت مربوط به ایستگاه چابهار در تمام ماه ها است. بطور کلی میزان تغییرپذیری ماه های فصول تابستان و پاییز کمتر از بهار و زمستان است. جهت باد بیشینه در سواحل خلیج فارس و دریای مازندران از شرق به غرب، تغییری ساعتگرد دارد. برای بررسی روند سرعت باد بیشینه از تحلیل رگرسیون خطی استفاده شد که حاکی از ناهمگونی شیب خط ایستگاه ها در سواحل جنوبی و همگونی ایستگاه های سواحل شمالی با شیب مثبت است.

    کلیدواژگان: باد بیشینه، رگرسیون خطی، تغییرات زمانی و مکانی، نواحی ساحلی
  • محسن سلحشوری، رضا احمدی کهنعلی*، علی حیرانی صفحات 61-82

    در عرصه برنامه ریزی به ویژه برنامه ریزی توسعه خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی، تصمیم گیران به رهیافت های جدید برای پاسخگویی به تغییرات و روش های پیش بینی تغییرات آینده نیاز دارند تا آمادگی بیشتری برای آینده داشته باشند. در این تحقیق برای جمع آوری اطلاعات از دو روش اسنادی و میدانی استفاده می گردد که بدین منظور از بررسی اسناد و پیشینه ها و انجام مصاحبه ها استفاده شده است. جامعه پژوهش این تحقیق، خبرگان بخش سلامت در حوزه مکران هستند که با روش هدفمند انتخاب شده اند. برای تحلیل داده های کیفی از تحلیل تم و برای تدوین سناریوها، از روش تحلیل مورفولوژیک و نرم افزار مورفول، تکنیک چرتکه راینر و سنجش مطلوبیت فرض ها استفاده شده است. پس از شناسایی و بررسی عوامل اثرگذار، 9 عامل به عنوان مهم ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر توسعه خدمات بهداشتی درمانی در منطقه مکران شناسایی گردید و داده ها برای تحلیل در نرم افزار مورفول قرار گرفت. 4988 سناریو به عنوان سناریوهای مقدم یا مرجح نرم افزار شناسایی گردیدند و ده سناریو برتر که احتمال معناداری آن ها در سطح بالاتری می باشد از این بین استخراج شدند. پژوهش حاضر سناریوهای پیش روی توسعه خدمات بهداشتی درمانی در منطقه سواحل مکران در افق 1415 را شناسایی نموده است.

    کلیدواژگان: سناریونگاری، لاپراسپکتیو، تحلیل مورفولوژی، خدمات بهداشتی درمانی، سواحل مکران
  • قاسم کیخسروی*، علیرضا شکیبا، پگاه حمیدپور صفحات 83-100

    برای بررسی بارش های ابرسنگین حوضه کرخه، ازآمار بارش های روزانه حوضه آبخیز(2018-2005)،تصاویر ماهواره ای راداری سنتینل 1، لندست و از داده های جوی نم ویژه، فشار، ارتفاع ژیوپتانسیل،امگا و جریان باد، استفاده گردید. نتایج بیانگر آن است، در مجموع بارش های سنگین به تفکیک سال روند افزایشی را نشان می دهد.بارش های سنگین از مقدار حداقلی15 تا 49 روز (مقدار تجمعی بلند مدت) در سطح حوضه تغییر دارند. بیشترین بارش های سنگین در سطح حوضه به ترتیب متعلق به ماه های دسامبر، آوریل، نوامبر و مارس می باشد. موقعیت استقرار سامانه های حرارتی پرفشار سیبری، کم فشار سودان،کم فشار پاکستان در سطح زمین و سامانه های دینامیکی پرفشار عربستان و ناوه مدیترانه الگوی غالب و تعیین کننده بارش های ابر سنگین در حوضه ابریز کرخه می باشد. عامل اصلی افزایش پهنه آبی دریاچه در بارش های ابر سنگین،افزایش تعداد روزهای دوره بارشی نیست، بلکه گسترش زیاد جنوب سوی ناوه مدیترانه، جابجایی شرق سوی واچرخند عربستان بر روی دریاهای گرم و شار قایم بخار آب شمال سو دریاهای گرم جنوبی به جلو ناوه می باشد. همچنین در بررسی موقعیت قرارگیری هسته جت برای ایجاد بارش های ابرسنگین، مناسب ترین حالت قرارگیری هسته درموقعیت عرضی 24 درجه شمالی و طول 42 شرقی(مرکز کشور عربستان) مشاهده شد، بگونه ای که در این حالت ناپایدارترین بخش جت(منطقه خروجی جت) منطبق بر بخش جلویی ناوه بر روی حوضه کرخه می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: بارش ابرسنگین، تصاویر ماهواره‎ ای، کم فشار سودان، پرفشارعربستان، ناوه جنب قطبی
  • توحید خیری، مجید یاسوری*، سمیه سادات شاه زیدی صفحات 101-118

    تنوع شالوده و اساس ثبات و پایداری هر سیستمی است و هراندازه سیستمی متنوع تر گردد، پایداری و پویایی آن در طول زمان ومکان حفظ می گردد. شناخت موانع تنوع بخشی اقتصاد روستایی یکی از رویکردهایی است که در جهت تحقق توسعه پایدار روستایی مطرح شده است. هدف در این تحقیق بررسی موانع تنوع بخشی به اقتصاد روستایی از ابعاد طبیعی، زیر ساختی نهادی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی در دهستان مرحمت آباد جنوبی پرداخته شده است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی و روش آن توصیفی-تحلیلی است. به منظورجمع آوری اطلاعات ازمطالعات کتابخانه ای و پیمایش میدانی (مشاهده ،مصاحبه وپرسشنامه) در محدوده مورد مطالعه استفاده شده است. قلمرو مکانی این تحقیق دهستان مرحمت آباد جنوبی شهرستان میاندوآب است. این دهستان دارای19 روستا و 3363 خانوار بوده است. تعداد353 خانوار از طریق فرمول اصلاح شده کوکران به عنوان حجم نمونه تحقیق انتخاب شد. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از آزمون T استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که از دیدگاه روستاییان منطقه از لحاظ موانع تنوع بخشی اقتصاد روستایی، عوامل نهادی مدیریتی مانند عدم دسترسی روستاییان به وام ها و منابع مالی، نبود یا نامناسب بودن خدمات مالی و عدم سرمایه گذاری بخش دولتی و خصوصی، نسبت به سایرعوامل تاثیر بیشتری را در ایجاد موانع تنوع بخشی به فعالیت های اقتصادی روستاهای منطقه را داشته است. لذا تامین منابع مالی، ارایه آموزش های مهارتی، حذف موانع اداری و قانونی می تواند در تنوع بخشی اقتصادی نواحی روستایی منطقه در فعالیتهای غیر زراعی بسیار موثر باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: تنوع بخشی، دریاچه ارومیه، دهستان مرحمت آباد جنوبی
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  • Sadegh Monem Lafmejani, Seyed Mahmoud Shabgoo Monsef *, Ali Gholipour Soleimani Pages 5-26

     The competitive position of the destination brand is the provision of a framework by the destinations through which they can show their distinction from other destinations. Various aspects of tourism brands have been addressed in various studies, but the issue of competitive positioning of tourism brands has not been addressed. Competitive positioning of a brand not only creates a positive image in the audience's minds towards competitors but also turns relative advantages into competitive advantages, leading to development in various dimensions and identification. The purpose of this study was to present a model of the influential factors and consequences of the competitive position of the tourism brand in Gilān province. It was a mixed-methods study in which the systematic model of data-based theory has been used in its qualitative part. In terms of the data collection method, it is field research. The research population included professors of management and geography and managers of tourism in Gilān province. In the qualitative part, theoretical sampling was used as one of the types of purposeful sampling, and the number of samples due to theoretical saturation was 11 individuals. The results of semi-structured interviews to develop a model of the competitive position of the tourism brand of Gilān province by coding method showed that 321 open codes were identified and classified in 26 concepts based on Strauss and Corbin's (1998) approach in seven main categories, including competitive sources, the competitive position of Gilān brand, contextual factors, destination management, and positioning and destination branding operations, intervening factors and consequences. Also, to measure the model designed in the quantitative part, the opinions of 169 managers, master experts, and experts in the field of tourism in Gilān province were used. The results of this section also showed a good fit of the designed model with the obtained data. Other results showed that the key factor in positioning the destination brand in customers' minds is the operations related to positioning, branding, and advertising of that destination, and all other factors will be more noticeable with the correct implementation of this factorHighlightThe competitive positioning indices of the destination brand were identified using the foundation data theory.Factors affecting the competitive positioning of the destination brand and the relationship between them were identified.The role of destination brand competitive positioning on the environmental, social and economic consequences of the destination was analyzed. Extended Abstract  Introduction Tourism branding means to form a special image of a destination in the eyes of target audience, hoping this special image will help solve the problems of tourism and lead to attract investment. Accordingly, the goal of branding a place is much more than marketing and advertising for destination, it aims to make the given destination competitive (Wei et al., 2020, p. 2). In order to make the brand of tourism destinations competitive, it is necessary to use various tools and strategies, one of which is the concept of brand positioning. Brand positioning is a set of brand activities that leads to gain a specific position in the minds of target market audience for that brand (Donnelly et al, 2020, p. 7). Kotler et al. (2018) in the book entitled as ‘fourth generation marketing’ emphasize effective brand positioning needs brand identity in its various layers (including roots, essence and outer shell) and brand codes. Positioning tool should also be changed accordingly and redefined from customer’s point of view. This is where 4P, i.e. product, price, place, promotion, change into 4C, i.e. customer value, convenience, cost, and communication. Positioning in fourth age marketing does not consider the customer as a goal but as the main ruler who must solve his/her problem (Kotler et al., 2018). In this regard, since the limited study in the field of brand competitive position to investigate the role and importance of tourism brand and determining its position, this study aims to address the causes and consequences of tourism brand competitive position in Guilan through a paradigm approach. By accurate identification of each individual component affecting the brand competitive positioning, tourism brand modeling will help not only to identify the relationship and role of each component, but also to explain its consequences. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to design and explain a model for tourism brand position in Guilan.MethodologyThe method used in this study is a mixed one (qualitative and quantitative). In qualitative part, it uses ‘grounded theory’ strategy. The instrument used for data collection in qualitative part, was a semi-structured interview with pre-designed questions. Theoretical sampling method was used to select the sample for interview, so that 11 subjects including university professors, officials and policy makers in Guilan tourism field were the sample members of this part of the study. Qualitative data analysis in the present study is based on the systematic approach of Strauss and Corbin (1998). According to Strauss and Corbin, qualitative data analysis for theorization requires the use of open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. In this study, coding operations were performed after interviewing and writing them, through MAXQDA. In quantitative data analysis, after performing confirmatory factor analysis test in LISREL 8.8 to measure the validity of the data obtained from the questionnaire, designed model was tested using structural equation modeling of partial least squares method in Smart PLS3.Results and discussion The results of data analysis obtained from semi-structured interviews by coding method showed that 321 open codes were identified and categorized into 26 concepts and 7 categories including competitive resources, Guilan brand competitive position, contextual factors, destination management and its positioning and branding operations, intervening factors and consequences. The study of relationship between categories revealed that destination management, competitive resources, contextual factors and positioning and branding operations plays an effective role in Guilan brand competitive position, which in turn will bring about economic, social and environmental consequences.Conclusion Given to the results and in order to improve the competitive position of Guilan brand, it is suggested first to focus on branding and advertising issues. It can be consisted of three steps. To create a destination brand, first of all one should find the main characteristics and values ​​of destination and travelers’ perception from that given destination. Next, appropriate communication skills should be improved in order to increase brand awareness. After implementing destination branding, undertaking organizations should also monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of destination brand through investigation and measurement of communications effectiveness. Therefore, they can determine the success and failure factors of destination brand for proper compatibility.Funding There is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the workConflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest.Acknowledgments This manuscript is prepared based on PhD thesis of first author at Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran.

    Keywords: Destination Positioning, Tourism Brand, Destination Competitiveness, Destination Brand Competitive Position
  • Mahdi Hosseinpour *, Mohsen Kalāntari, Isā Piri Pages 27-43

    As an interconnected whole, the city needs a strong organization with integrated management. With the entry of the private sector and volunteer groups into policy and government, we can see a more desirable form of city administration. Cities have found no way to govern and manage themselves except laying the groundwork for the development of democracy, all of which implies a new way of governing cities called good urban governance. This model is defined as a participatory development process in which all stakeholders, including the government, the private sector, and civil society, provide a way to solve the problems of the rapid urbanization process. This paper aimed to identify the influential and prominent factors in good governance of Urmiā. It is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the research method. The nature of the data is qualitative and quantitative, and the method of data collection is the library research and field (interaction questionnaire). The research sample included 35 experts of urban planning, city managers, and researchers (22 managers and experts and 13 researchers) who were selected by the Delphi method and snowball. The prominent and influential factors have been analyzed in the Maxtor software environment, and the degree of competitiveness, convergence, and agreement among the main factors have been determined. Twelve prominent and influential factors in the good governance of Urmiā were examined. The results showed that direct and indirect effects among the factors represent the highest number of effects for a provincial factor with 187 effects. The highest level of competitiveness was related to the social networks, with a rate of 1.83. Road development, housing, and an urban management organization with 12 events per goal have been identified.Highlight-Identifying and examining actors, creates benefits and capacities for managers and planners of Urmia city that can be fully synchronized with facilitating the principles of good urban governance.-The classification of the governing actors of Urmia city in the diagram of influence and effectiveness indicates the existence of a vicious cycle in the interactions between the effective actors in the management process of the city.Extended Abstract Introduction The city needs a strong organization with integrated management as an interconnected whole. With the entry of the private sector and volunteer groups into policy and government, we can see a more desirable form of the city administration. Cities have found no way to govern and manage themselves except by laying the groundwork for the development of democracy, all of which implies a new way of governing cities called good urban governance. This model is defined as a participatory development process in which all stakeholders, including the government, the private sector, and civil society, provide a way to solve the problems of the rapid urbanization process. The question that arises in this paper is who are the role-playing actors, influential people, and prominent forces in governing the city of Urmiā? Efforts are made to explain better the various dimensions of a better understanding of the conditions of urban managers and policymakers and their position in the city of Urmiā to be understood from the citizens' perspective. This can be an effective step to eliminate the deficiencies and shortcomings in the structural and executive body.The literature review (identification of the main actors of urban governance) indicated that there is no research on the subject under study. Therefore, this research is a step towards advancing this important issue for the city of Urmiā. Also, the subject's methodology under investigation is another novelty aspect. Mactor software examines and analyzes the actors influential in realizing good governance in the city of Urmiā. This study tried to provide a model to improve the current process of developing urban governance programs. On the one hand, the prepared projects meet the needs of the people and the urban system and, on the other hand, provide a suitable platform for improving the feasibility of urban spatial development plans.Methodology This paper aimed to identify the influential and prominent factors in good governance of Urmiā. It is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the research method. The nature of the data is qualitative and quantitative, and the method of data collection is the library research and field (interaction questionnaire). The data analysis method is quantitative-qualitative (mixed method) in this research. According to the needs of this research, the sample population includes experts and elites who have the necessary and sufficient expertise in the field of integrated urban management and good governance in the studied city. The research sample included 35 experts, specialists, and elites selected by the snowball method. We asked the experts to introduce the next person to us. Hidden and overt actors in urban management and good urban governance were extracted through an open questionnaire and the Delphi method. After gathering the actors and goals, the matrix of works was formed in two stages, so that the indicators are placed in its rows and columns. Excel and Mactor software were used to convert indicators and variables After gathering the actors and goals, the interaction matrix was formed in two steps, in a way that the indicators are located in rows and columns. Excel and Mactor software were used to convert indexes and variables. The research method is done in 8 steps; the first step is to identify the actors and the goals, the second step is the interaction of the actors with each other, the third step is the effects of the actors and the goals on each other, the fourth step is the analysis of the actors' performance, the fifth step is the competitiveness of the actors; the sixth step is the position of the maximum matrix of the actors, the seventh step, is the degree of convergence and divergence among the actors, the eighth and the final step agreement of the actors between the goals. Twelve prominent and influential factors in the good governance of Urmiā were examined.Results and discussionFindings showed that direct and indirect effects among actors represent the highest number of influences for governorship with 187 effects. Social networks were the most competitive with 1.83%. Twelve events per goal have determined the purpose of developing roads, housing, and organizing urban management. According to the results, to achieve good governance for the city of Urmiā, the participatory planning system should be improved, and the transfer of management of local affairs in the areas of administration, coordination, supervision, and regulation should be established.ConclusionThe present study has tried to analyze the impact, effectiveness, convergence, divergence, agreement of actors and goals by identifying the influential actors in good governance of Urmiā from the experts' viewpoint in the field of urban planning and urban management. The classification of the governing actors of Urmiā in the chart of influence and effectiveness indicates the existence of a vicious cycle in the interactions among the influential actors in the management process of the city. The most influential and effective actors are the governmental organizations and institutions, but the actors and public stakeholders such as universities and consulting engineers and the engineering system that should be part of the influential group are practically in the lower category of influence and effectiveness. Also, the convergence and divergence among the actors over their goals showed that the greatest convergence is among public actors. However, according to the city's ultimate goal of good governance, it should be among the government institutions. Regarding the poor coordination among the urban management institutions, the power of government-affiliated actors (governorate, management organization, road, and urban development, etc.) has been more than the total weight of private and public actors. Such a situation can be considered one of the reasons for the lack of proper management of a city, which necessitates paying more attention to the actors and stakeholders in the management process and the city's governance.Funding There is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the workConflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest.Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper.

    Keywords: good urban governance, factor analysis, Maxtor, Urmiā
  • Sohrāb Ghāedi *, Mortezā Esmāil Nejād Pages 45-60

    Severe coastal winds, either directly or by flooding the coastal waters, can damage installations or cause disorder in various human activities such as shipping, commerce, recreation, etc. This study investigated the temporal-spatial variability of maximum coastal winds using the maximum wind data from stations in Iran's northern and southern coasts. Statistical analysis of the average maximum wind speed showed that the Persian Gulf coast had the highest speed. The monthly changes of the maximum wind indicated that the maximum monthly average is related to November in Anzali port and the minimum rate is for Chābahār station in all months. Generally, the variability of summer and autumn months is less than spring and winter. The maximum wind direction on the shores of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea has a clockwise shift from east to west. Linear regression analysis was used to study the trend of maximum wind speed, which indicated the heterogeneity of the line slope of the stations on the southern coasts and the homogeneity of the northern coast stations with a positive slope.Highlight The maximum average monthly is related to November in Bandar-e-Anzali and the minimum speed is related to Chabahar station in all months and the variability of summer and autumn is less than spring and winter seasons.The topography altitude in the coastal areas and their distance to the coast, play a decisive role in the direction of maximum winds.Linear regression analysis shows the maximum wind time series have a negative slope on the south coasts (except Chabahar and Abadan stations) and a positive slope on the north coasts.Extended Abstract Introduction Coastal areas are the confluence of hydrosphere, atmosphere and litosphere, and this triple link provides special biological conditions for humans and other living organisms. Due to the special characteristics of coastal areas, human life and activity in these areas are affected by the intense functions of natural factors. One of the most important natural factors in these areas is wind, and as the intensity of these winds increases, the effects increase. Severe coastal winds, either directly or by flooding the coastal waters, can damage installations and disorder in various human activities such as shipping, commerce, recreation, etc.In this study, the monthly data of speed and direction of maximum wind of the Meteorological Organization for coastal stations on the coasts of Oman, Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea were used in the thirty-year period of October 1992 to October 2021.MethodologyFirst, descriptive statistics related to each station were calculated. The maximum wind vane of each station was plotted. The frequency of wind vector events for each station was calculated and plotted. Linear regression related to each station was calculated to determine the temporal variations of maximum wind in each station.Results and discussion The study of the average maximum wind speed shows that the Caspian Sea coasts with an average of 12.75 meters per second have the highest and the Oman Sea coasts with 10.97 meters per second have the lowest average maximum winds; this amount in the Persian Gulf coasts is about 12.3 meters per second. Investigation of monthly changes of maximum wind shows that the maximum average monthly is related to November in Bandar-e-Anzali and the minimum speed is related to Chabahar station in all months and the variability of summer and autumn is less than spring and winter seasons. The severe winds direction in Chabahar station are from the west-southeast and in Jask station are from the west-eastern. The direction of the maximum wind on the shores of the Persian Gulf changes clockwise from east to west stations, so that from the south in Bandar Abbas, finally it turns north in Abadan; in the shores of the Caspian Sea, from east to west (Gorgan to Astara), the prevailing wind, like the shores of the Persian Gulf, moves clockwise and changes from west to north. On the shores of the Caspian Sea from east to west (Gorgan to Astara) the prevailing wind, like the shores of the Persian Gulf, has a clockwise movement and changes west to north (except Astara). In general, due to the maximum winds are the result of pressure daily changes and considering the clockwise changes in wind direction from east to west on both the north and south coasts of Iran, it can be concluded that the topography altitude in the coastal areas and their distance to the coast, play a decisive role in the direction of maximum winds. As a result, in areas where the altitudes are low or far from the coast, high pressures are formed in the water zones and therefore the direction of maximum winds are from the sea to the land. Linear regression analysis shows the maximum wind time series have a negative slope on the south coasts (except Chabahar and Abadan stations) and a positive slope on the north coasts. The highest line slope is related to Gorgan station in the easternmost part of the Caspian Sea coast.ConclusionOverall it can be said that with more concentration of human activities on the coast and an increase extreme climate events, including severe winds, the probability of human and financial losses on the coast has increased and the need for identification and planning to prepare with such hazards is inevitable. According to the results of this study, which shows the increasing trend of severe winds in the northern regions, and also due to the intense concentration of population on the northern coasts, this hazard must be taken seriously. The use of coastal meteorological stations to predict and warn of severe winds, the correct location of piers, strengthening of coastal structures and construction of coastal walls to deal with strong waves caused by severe winds and Educate local residents to deal with severe winds can reduce the risk of severe damage during these events.FundingThere is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the workConflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to Iran meteorological organization for providing data in this paper.

    Keywords: Maximum wind, Linear Regression, Temporal-Spatial variation, Coastal areas
  • Mohsen Salahshouri, Rezā Ahmadi Kahnāli *, Ali Heirāni Pages 61-82

    In the field of planning, especially health care development planning, decision-makers need new approaches to respond to the changes and ways to predict future changes to be more prepared for the future. The data collection method was documentary and field methods. For this purpose, reviewing documents and literature and interviews have been used. The research population included health experts in the Makrān region who have been selected by the purposeful method. Theme analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. The morphological analysis, Morphol software, Régnier's abacus technique, and the desirability of the hypotheses were used to formulate the scenarios. After identifying and examining the influential factors, 9 factors were identified as the most important factors affecting the development of health services in the Makrān region. The data were analyzed in Morphol software. 4988 scenarios were identified as the first or preferred scenario, from which the top ten scenarios with the highest probability of significance were extracted. The present study has identified the leading scenarios for developing health services in the Makrān coastal region on the horizon of 1415.Highlight This study highlights the importance of developing health services in the Makran coastal region.Identifying progressive scenarios for the development of health services in the Makran coastal region will enable future studies to be conducted within the required scientific framework.Extended Abstract Introduction The future is constantly being built in every moment and never stops, by looking at the future it can be discovered and evaluated to create a desirable future (Pouragha & et al., 2018: 290-296). Thinking requires a certain language to be formulated by it, and the planner needs a tool to be able to express the future in the form of predictable elements and uncertainties, these tools are the same scenarios. Relatively specific elements and uncertainties of the future can be explained with a set of scenarios and based on it to take a position and plan for the future (Randall and Fahey, 1998: 3-9). Planning for the future plays a key role, especially in a competitive business world. Scenario analysis is a popular tool for future exploration and acceptable planning (Tavana et al., 2021: 1-17). Scenario planning is in fact, a tool used in the decision-making process; It is very useful when the decision maker is dealing with issues under uncertainty, That is a situation where at least one of the parameters of the decision is not a definite decision is very useful (Gaspars-Wieloch, 2019: 111-21).Sustainable development is the most important goal of the modern era and can only be achieved through a comprehensive approach. Effective governance measures are the key to success in maintaining a balance between meeting basic needs and expected goals, and each country must find a path to development tailored to its national circumstances. Such a broad approach requires the realization of activities through a rational division of labor and cooperation between management bodies, and only by achieving goals, including; Living without poverty, ensuring health, education, gender equality, economic and labor rights, social equality and the development of a more inclusive society, we can live a life of prosperity (Wang & et al., 2019: 386-388).We are currently witnessing changes in the health care system and we can expect more such drastic changes in the future, and one of the developing methods is to find strategies to achieve the future situation, this approach involves reasoning from a favorable image and The future state is to identify the changes needed to create the desired image (Dortland & et al., 2014: 15-31). The results of studies in the health sector indicate that futures study provide important tools and evidence for policymakers in almost all areas of the health system's functions, such as determining the amount and types of services needed, allocating funds, number of beds, expansion of hospital departments, technology requirements, the impact of policies and programs (Pouragha & et al., 2018: 290-296).The Makran coastal region, which includes the eastern coast of Iran, is of strategic importance to the country due to its extraordinary economic, security, regional and international access and communication capacities, and since this area is underdeveloped and health services are not in a good condition in this area, so it is necessary to know the scenarios for the development of health services for the development of Makran coastal region, so this study seeks to answer the question of what are the upcoming scenarios for health services in Makran coast?MethodologyThe present research is a mixed research method quantitative and qualitative methods. The data collection method is done in both library and field methods and the data collection tool in the field method is interview and questionnaire. First, using hand search, relevant resources were searched among articles, books and dissertations, and then, using a systematic review method, Appropriate and relevant backgrounds were extracted. Also, in order to obtain upstream documents related to health services in Makran region, searches were conducted, which eventually led to the extraction of relevant documents. Then, by designing the relevant protocol, interviews were conducted with experts to obtain the required information, and then categorization. The influential components extracted from the backgrounds, documents and interviews of researchers were classified as effective factors on the development of health services in Makran region and on the horizon of 1415. Thematic analysis method was used to identify factors affecting health development and data collected by soft Maxqda software was categorized. Then, the most important and final influential factors on the development of health services were extracted by the researchers with the help of Micmac software.Scenarios were developed based on the French school method of La prospective and morphological analysis method. The main influencing factors were used for analysis in Morphol software Also, by designing another questionnaire, the experts were asked about the preferred connections between the situations related to the main factors, and finally the scenarios of health services in Makran coastal region were extracted.Results and discussion9 variables; "Existence of government laws and regulations", "Foreign policies", "Support plans and programs", "Economic situation of the region", "Coordination of influential actors", "Demographic characteristics", "Investment activities", "Regional economic events" and " "Migration" were identified as the main influential variables.Through morphological analysis, 4988 scenarios were identified as the preferred scenarios of the software according to the amount of significant probability. By morphological analysis, 4988 scenarios were identified as software preferred scenarios according to the probability of significance, of which the top 10 scenarios were analyzed. Finally, solutions were provided for different situations of health services in Makran coastal region.ConclusionThe results of the analysis of the best and most probable scenarios of health services in the horizon of 1415 in the region, show the gradual growth of possible situations of effective indicators. Considering the importance of the development of Makran coastal region in the development plans of the country, paying attention to the results of this research can be used for planning the development of this region and also the results of this research can be used by the Management and Planning Organization, Parliamentary Research Department, Council Planning and development of Hormozgan province and Sistan and Baluchestan province and other developing regions of the country and even the world, to consider these results to advance their goals.FundingThere is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the workConflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper We also thank The Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal (GSCAJ) and the respected reviewers.

    Keywords: scenario, La prospective, Morphological Analysis, Health Services, Makrān Coasts
  • Ghasem Keikhosravi *, Alireza Shakiba, Pegah Hamidpour Pages 83-100

     To investigate the super-heavy precipitation of Karkheh Basin, daily precipitation statistics of the basin (2005-2018), radar satellite images of Sentinel 1, Landsat, and data on specific humidity, pressure, geopotential height, omega, and wind flow have been used. The results show that the total of heavy rainfall by year shows an increasing trend. Heavy rainfall varies from a minimum of 11 to 40 days (long-term cumulative amount) at the basin level. Most of the heavy rainfall in the basin occurs in the last days of winter and the first days of autumn. The location of Siberian high-pressure, Sudan low pressure, Pakistan low-pressure surface systems and dynamic high-pressure systems of Saudi Arabia and the Mediterranean is the dominant pattern and determinant of extremely precipitation in the Karkheh catchment. The main reason for the increase in the lake's water area in extremely precipitation is not the increase in the number of days of the rainy, but the large expansion south of the Mediterranean trough, eastward movement of the Saudi anticyclone on warm seas and vertical water vapor flux north of the warm southern seas.  Also, in examining the position of the jet core to create extremely rainfall, the most suitable position of the core was observed in the transverse position of 24 degrees north and longitude 42 east (center of Saudi Arabia), so that in this case the most unstable part of the jet (exit area Jet) corresponds exactly to the front of the trough on the Karkheh basin.Highlight The synoptic conditions of super-heavy precipitation are such that in the lower levels of Troposphere, the pattern of Siberian high pressure systems,Sudan low pressure , Saudi Arabia high pressure and the combined model of Sudan low pressure - Pakistan low pressure and in the upper levels of Troposphere.the large expansion south of the Mediterranean trough, eastward movement of the Saudi anticyclone on warm seas and vertical water vapor flux north of the warm southern seas, It plays a major role in the intensity of super-heavy precipitation and increasing the water area of Karkheh Dam Lake.Extended Abstract Introduction Heavy rainfall is when the amount of rain or snow experienced in a place is significantly more than normal. Heavy rainfall is an indicator of climate change and is dependent on climate change, because as temperatures rise, the atmosphere will be able to hold more water vapor, and warmer oceans will increase the amount of water evaporated into the air. Karkheh River is one of the main streams in the southwest of Iran. Due to the geographical location, topography and also its position in relation to the circulating pattern of the atmosphere, the mechanism of precipitation in this basin is very similar to the mechanism of precipitation systems in tropical regions. In most parts of the basin, even in the cold days of the year, rainfall falls in the form of rain. On the other hand, due to the precipitation mechanism of this region, most of the precipitation occurs in the form of short-term rainfall systems and sometimes in the form of small precipitation cores. Due to the hot nature and high humidity potential on the one hand and access to warm seas on the other hand, these systems cause heavy rainfall. Due to the nature (liquid precipitation) and precipitation mechanism of the systems in this basin, there is a possibility of flooding in this The basin is larger than other basins.Methodology Research Method In this research, the environmental method is circulating. First, the daily rainfall statistics of the watershed in an 11-year statistical period (2005-2018) are extracted for all synoptic stations. Then, based on global and national criteria for selecting heavy rainfall and extremely rainfall for the rainfall period of the basin is extracted. In the second step, after determining the number of days of heavy rain, satellite images of Sentinel 1 and Landsat radar in the days before the rain and also after heavy rain were called in the Google Earth engine system. After radiometric and atmospheric corrections of satellite images, NDWI and Log Ratio indices were used to calculate the water area and water changes of Karkheh Dam Lake. Step 3: Atmospheric data for days with extremely using the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other related sites in the range of 10 ° E to 80 ° N and 0 to 70 ° N Extracted and plotted with geopotential moisture, omega and moisture, flow and moisture for sea levels, 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hP and jet of 300 and 250 hP in Grads environment. The systems are originated using sea level data and 1000 and 850 hPa. Results and discussionThe highest frequency of heavy rainfall in the basin occurs in autumn and then winter. Heavy rainfall varies from a minimum of 15 to 49 days (cumulative is long-term) at the basin level. In addition to the 30 mm threshold for another day, another condition was considered for selecting extremely rainy days, so that at least 50% of the stations on that day had more than 30 mm of rainfall recorded. Based on the mentioned dual conditions, 7 pervasive events were identified for heavy cloud precipitation in Karkheh basin. In the occurrence of extremely, the area of Karkheh Dam Lake has been increased from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 51 square kilometers. The main reason for the increase in the lake's water area in extremely precipitation is not the increase in the number of days of the rainy, but the large expansion south of the Mediterranean trough, eastward movement of the Saudi anticyclone on warm seas and vertical water vapor flux north of the warm southern seas.  In all study samples of extremely precipitation, in the lower levels of Troposphere, the pattern of Siberian high pressure systems, Sudan low pressure, Saudi Arabia high pressure and the combined model of Sudan low pressure of Pakistan low pressure and in the upper levels of Troposphere, Saudi Arabia anticyclone and Mediterranean trough, The shape of the trough dominates the area.The transfer moisture of the warm southern seas (Oman Sea, Arabian, Red Sea) from the lower levels and the humidity of the tropical convergence region at the upper levels are the most important causes of atmospheric disturbances and heavy rainfall. ConclusionExtremely precipitation is one of the climatic hazards whose changes in the basin can have irreparable consequences for the region; Direct feedback from extremely precipitation is pervasive floods. The results show that the total of heavy rainfall by year shows an increasing trend. Heavy rainfall varies from a minimum of 15 to 49 days (long-term cumulative amount) at the basin level. Most of the heavy rainfall in the basin occurs in the last days of winter and the first days of autumn. The location of Siberian high-pressure, low-pressure Sudan, low-pressure Pakistan surface systems and dynamic high-pressure systems of Saudi Arabia and the Mediterranean is the dominant pattern and determinant of extremely precipitation in the Karkheh catchment. The main reason for the increase in the lake's water area in extremely precipitation is not the increase in the number of days of the rainy, but the large expansion south of the Mediterranean trough, eastward movement of the Saudi anticyclone on warm seas and vertical water vapor flux north of the warm southern seas.  Also, in examining the position of the jet core to create extremely rainfall, the most suitable position of the core was observed in the transverse position of 24 degrees north and longitude 42 east (center of Saudi Arabia), so that in this case the most unstable part of the jet (exit area Jet) corresponds exactly to the front of the trough on the Karkheh basin.Funding There is no funding support.Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the workConflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the Meteorological Organization for permission to use the daily Meteorology data.

    Keywords: Extremely precipitation, Satellite imagery, Sudan low pressure, Saudi Arabia High pressure, Sub polar Trough
  • Tohid Khayri, Majid Yāsouri *, Somayeh Sādāt Shāhzeidi Pages 101-118

    Diversity is the basis of the sustainability of any system. Whatever the system varies, its sustainability and dynamism are preserved over time and place. Understanding the barriers to rural diversification is one of the attitudes towards sustainable rural development. This study aimed to study the barriers to the diversification of the rural economy from natural, institutional, economic and social dimensions in South Marhamatābād. The research is applied with a descriptive-analytical method. Library studies and field surveys (observation, interview, and questionnaire) were used to collect information. The spatial scope of this research is the south Marhamatābād village in Miāndoāb County. This sub-district has 19 villages and 3363 rural families. 353 families were selected through the modified Cochran formula as the research sample size. T-test was used to analyze data. The results of the research showed that from the viewpoint of the villagers of the region, in terms of the barriers to the diversification of the rural economy; organizational-institutional factors such as the lack of access of villagers to loans and financial resources, the lack or inappropriateness of financial services, and the lack of public and private sector investment, have had a more prominent influence on the creation of barriers to the diversification of the economic activities of villages in the region.Highlight -With proper management in order to preserve lakes and water resources, the problem of water shortage is solved and the possibility of developing employment and entrepreneurship is provided.-One of the most important ways to diversify the economy of coastal areas is the development of tourism. By providing infrastructure and investment from the private sector and facilitating business start-ups by government agencies, it is possible to increase employment and income in these areas. Extended Abstract Introduction Rural development programs, along with prioritizing the economic needs of local people and the participatory role of rural people on various activities in the rural economy, can lead to economic development and rural development and integrated and comprehensive rural development. The importance of the diversification approach to economic activities is that if the agricultural sector is in recession, the non-agricultural rural economy may be able to repair some of the damage and improve the economic and social resilience of rural settlements. Diversification of rural livelihood plays a prominent role in sustainable development, especially the economic, social and environmental sustainability of rural areas. Economic restructuring is possible by using the livelihood diversification strategy because as a fundamental solution, it creates employment, increases income, stabilizes the population, increases production and accumulation of savings, increases self-awareness, etc. in rural areas. Villages along Lake Urmia in the last decade due to neglect of environmental aspects and uncontrolled water withdrawal, has led to a decrease in water, especially in agriculture. In addition, the weakness of infrastructure, lack of water resources, lack of capital, lack of government facilities, lack of specialized personnel, etc. have caused problems in the region. Due to the weakening of economic activities in the region, recognizing the capabilities of the region and creating suitable conditions for various economic activities for the sustainability of rural settlements in the region are among the items that necessitate the need for this research. The purpose of this study is to investigate the barriers to diversification of rural economy from natural, infrastructural, institutional, economic and social dimensions in South Merhamatabad rural area. MethodologyThe present research is of applied type and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. In order to collect information, library studies and field survey (questionnaire and observation) have been used. The study village has 19 villages. According to the population of the region, the sample size was selected based on the Cochran's formula, equivalent to 345 questionnaires. In order to select the sample members from the statistical population, a simple random sampling method was used. Then, the sample size in the formula was calculated and a questionnaire was completed for each household in each village. Results and discussionAccording to exploratory studies in the region conducted by experts and local people and data available in the executive branch, the most important barriers to economic diversification of rural settlements in the region were classified into four categories: social, economic, natural and managerial-institutional. In order to investigate the effect of the variables on the lack of diversity of rural economic activities, multiple regression analyzes were used by stepwise method. The standardized beta coefficients related to institutional-managerial factors were calculated to be 0.582, which has the highest value compared to other independent variables entered in the regression model. Therefore, it can be said that the existing institutional-managerial factors such as; Inadequate roads, lack of production support services, inadequate banking services, lack of cooperatives, low level of investment and lack of conversion industries more than other restrictions affect the lack of diversity of rural economic activities in the region and later , Economic factors, social factors and natural factors have had an effect on the lack of diversity of rural economic activities. It can also be predicted that each unit of increase in the independent variable "institutional-managerial", 0.582 units increase in the lack of diversity of rural economic activities, plays a role. This figure is 0.080 units in the variable "environmental factors (provided that the independent variables of the model are constant), 0.273 units in the variable" economic factors "and 0.257 units in the variable" social factors ". Therefore, it can be said. The most important factor limiting the economic diversification of the villages in the region is the institutional-managerial barriers. ConclusionAccording to the field observations of the researcher, it can be stated that one of the obstacles faced by the inhabitants of the study area for economic development is the lack of possible infrastructure, reduction of the water level of Lake Urmia and as a result the lack of sufficient and necessary investment. Lack of sufficient motivation and skills to establish non-agricultural activities. So that if appropriate facilities are provided by banks and governmental and non-governmental institutions to the villagers of Marhamatabad district, it will increase the motivation for non-agricultural activities and improve the situation of water and soil resources, especially in the agricultural sector. Therefore, the lack of proper investment and income reduced the possibility of creating non-agricultural employment related to agriculture in rural areas. It is necessary to identify new areas of income that are not dependent on land and water, given the region's constraints on economic diversification. In addition, access to low-interest credit, education and skills acquisition, marketing, self-confidence, the establishment of non-agricultural cooperatives, and attention to the capabilities of women and youth should be a priority for the region's economic diversification. According to the obtained results, in order to diversify the rural activities of the region, in the first priority, it is suggested to: expand economic activities such as industrial livestock, poultry breeding, natural and cultural tourism, cold storage, grading warehouses and product segregation and construction Salt refinery on the shores of Lake Urmia. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ ContributionAuthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.AcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the Meteorological Organization for permission to use the daily Meteorology data.

    Keywords: diversification, Urmiā Lake, South Marhamatābād