نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال هفدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 54، بهار 1401)

Globalization has created fundamental changes in various economic dimensions. In the economic dimension, the most important of these changes are expansion and integration of global markets, such as increasing the flow of finance and international market of capital, production relations and capital exchanges. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization (FG) on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in the selected Islamic countries during the period 2000-2019 using the Panel VAR method. The results indicated that FG reduces the changes in GDP by interacting with the liquidity, so FG contributes to the effectiveness of monetary policy. But changes in GDP responded positively to the interactive shocks of FG and interest rates. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy has decreased through interest rate Chanel. Inflation changes do not response to the interactive shocks of FG and liquidity in the long run. Therefore, in the long run, the interaction between FG and the liquidity has no effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy, while changes in inflation show a negative response to the interactive shocks of FG and interest rates. Indeed, the interaction of interest rates and FG reduces changes in inflation and increases the effectiveness of monetary policy through interest rates. Changes of GDP and inflation rates do not show a significant response to the interactive shocks of FG and government spending. Thus, FG in interaction with fiscal policy has no effect on changes in inflation and GDP, so it does not affect the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

Exchange rate is one of the most important variables in financial systems and identifying its determinants can significantly improve the performance of such systems. This paper proposes a hybrid exchange rate monetary model for the Iranian economy that has more explanatory variables than the classical monetary exchange rate models and uses the annual data of the period 1398-1398 and Johansen's approach. According to the results of long-term co-integration test, it can be inferred that the variables of real GDP difference and nominal interest rate difference have a negative impact and the variables of inflation rate difference, liquidity difference, crude oil real price, government expenditure share of GDP and the productivity difference of the tradable sector has a positive effect on the exchange rate. The positive effect of the difference in the productivity of the tradable sector on the exchange rate denies the existence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Iran. According to the impulse response function, the exchange rate itself has the greatest effect on the exchange rate by creating an impulse equal to a standard deviation on the variables affecting the exchange rate. The results of the variance decomposition also indicate that the most explanation of exchange rate fluctuations during 10 years is the exchange rate variable itself.

The rapid growth of financial systems and the expansion of its various dimensions in societies have attracted special attention to this category and its effects on the mechanisms, processes and functions of the economy. In this regard, it is very important to investigate the role of financial systems development as the main infrastructure for the implementation of monetary policy and the realization of pre-determined policy goals. In this study, considering the policy goal of reducing unemployment, the impact of financial development on the effectiveness of monetary policy is examined. For this purpose, by emphasizing the two instruments of interest rate and monetary base, in the first step, the effectiveness of monetary policy on reducing unemployment in terms of each instrument is estimate, separately and in the form of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model for 1989: 1 to 2016: 4 In Iran, and then using rolling regression models, the effectiveness of each monetary policy is extracted over time. In the final step, the relationship between the estimated effectiveness and the financial development index is estimated. The results show that the development of financial institutions and markets has a diminishing effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy using interest rate tools to achieve the goal of reducing unemployment, but this diminishing effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy using the monetary base is significant only for the development of financial institutions.

As the knowledge-based economy expands, what can create a competitive advantage and increase international competitiveness is the increasing level of economic complexity of export products. On the other hand, one of the important prerequisites for promoting economic complexity is having a skilled and trained workforce. In the meantime, developed countries have become destinations for Brain Drain (migration of human capital) from countries that have not been successful in achieving a knowledge-based economy and producing complex products due to providing suitable conditions for using the potential of human capital in the context of globalization and achieving a knowledge-based economy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic complexity on Brain Drain from selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation during the period 2010-2019 using the GMM (Generalized Moment of Method). The results of model estimation show that economic complexity in this regard is directly related to the brain drain. In other words, the unfavorable situation of the economic complexity of these societies, which indicates the sluggishness of the market of knowledge-based factors such as human capital and skilled labor, is a kind of repulsive factor to the country with high economic complexity. In addition, variables determining the realization of knowledge-based economy and competitiveness in the international trade such as; The Globalization Index, R&D Expenditure, and Institutional quality indicators inversely related to the rain drain to United States.

The outbreak of Covid 19 pandemic started from a disease affecting the human immune system and health and now it has spread to the economies of all the countries of the world and the international economy. In other words, this disease has directly faced a serious crisis in the service sector, such as tourism and has pushed other sectors with broad economic constraints and to some extent to the brink of bankruptcy. Unemployment and employment have become critical in many countries, and declining GDP has been reported in many countries. The question is, has globalization fueled the spread of the corona in the world? And has the outbreak had a significant impact on trade volume and globalization? In other words, are countries with more open indicators from the perspective of globalization, for example, have the degree of openness made the disease more prevalent in the world? And has the outbreak significantly reduced business flows in the world? This study analyzes the relationship between global trade and the prevalence of Covid 19 among 70 countries of the world, two groups of developing countries (50 countries) and developed countries (20 countries) using the monthly panel data and GMM method from the of 2019 to the beginning of 2021. Research results Indicates the significant effects of the disease outbreak on the reduction of trade flows between countries. The results also show that the prevalence of Granger causality between Covid 19 and the reduction of globalization and trade volume of countries. Finally, suggestions for reducing the negative effects of epidemics is about the global economy.

Understanding the water content of export and import products in international trade has an effective role in the optimal management of water in Iran as a country with water stress. The main purpose of this study is to identify the balance of water content of products in Iran's foreign trade. For this purpose, using the input-output tables - 2016 and considering the interrelationships and dependencies between major economic sectors including agriculture, mines, manufacturing, electricity and gas production, treatment, supply and wastewater, buildings, services and others, the Water footprint index, net import of virtual water and some indicators related to water consumption have been calculated. The results show that in 2016, Iran was a net importer of virtual water. Although the agricultural sector has the highest national water footprint ( 89%), according to the water consumption multiplier index, increasing water consumption in this sector has very little effect on increasing water consumption in other sectors. After the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector has the highest intensity of indirect water consumption (3.5 cubic meters / million Rials), and the increase in water consumption in this sector has the greatest impact on increasing water consumption in the economy. So that the increase of one unit of water consumption in this sector increases the water consumption of the agricultural sector by 7 times and the water consumption of the whole country by 9 times. After the agricultural sector, the highest amount of virtual water content (direct and indirect water consumption) was allocated to the treatment, supply and wastewater sector(5.8 cubic meters / million Rials). The services and other sectors, which has been the largest net exporter of virtual water ( 217 million cubic meters), have the largest water footprint after agriculture.