نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال نهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 17، بهار و تابستان 1401)

Impulses are seen as a fundamental challenge to sustainable and sustainable economic growth and development. When a common shock comes to the economies of different regions of the world, the reaction of the economies of each region is different. The difference in countries' response to common shocks stems from differences in their economic resilience. In the event of adverse shocks, a country with high economic resilience will return to a faster growth path before the outbreak of shock, and a country with low resilience will face disruption and slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, it is important to examine the factors affecting economic resilience in order to deal with the risks facing the economy and achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development. Technology Foreign Spillover from the channels of import of intermediate and capital goods, foreign direct investment or brains reverse migration is one of the most important factors that can reduce the limitations of domestic research and development and fill the gap in technology, increase competitiveness and reduce the gap in economic resilience of developing countries and developed countries. The phenomenon of globalization is another important factor that can affect economic resilience by facilitating economic, social and political relations outside the country's borders. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the effect of the Technology Foreign Spillovers and globalization on the economic resilience during the period 2007-2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of the technology foreign spillover through two channels, import of intermediate and capital goods and globalization on economic resilience.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of coordinating of monetary and fiscal policies in the co-operative game space on macroeconomic components in which the government acts as a leader and central bank as a follower and its effect on macroeconomic variables including inflation. Unemployment, economic growth, as well as the Tehran Stock Exchange market index have been studied and compared with the situation in which these two institutions operate in a non-cooperative manner. This article uses SVAR method to study and test the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies in the period 1979 to 2016. The results show that the dominance of the financial sector as a leader over the monetary sector as a follower has led to higher inflation and lower unemployment rates as policies are implemented, indicating the dominance of the financial sector as well as the government's political goals. The central bank's economic goals have led to an increase in the GDP gap during the study period.

Given the rapid exchange rate rise and deviation from the way of ensuring price stability, as well as its adverse effects on the Iranian economy, the study of the effect of this deviation on the macroeconomic variable of production is more important.In this study, after estimating the deviation of the exchange rate from the exchange rate ensuring price stability, it is attempted to investigate its relation with production in the country using appropriate definitions. The estimation results show that the higher the deviation from the exchange rate than the exchange rate guarantee the stability of prices, the lower the produced variable and the positive impact of capital input variables, intermediate inputs and labor force on positive output. In this regard, one percent increase in short-term exchange rate deviation reduces by 7 tenths of a percent, and in the long run it results in a two hundred percent decline in output.

Between 1387 and 1396, mutual funds experienced a significant growth in terms of capital under their management, so that during this period, the volume of their available capital has reached about 800 billion tomans. Over the period, however, the return on these funds was less than both the stock market index and the fixed income funds. This research aims to address the question of whether, despite their poor long-term performance, individual and institutional investors are able to earn higher returns by predicting high-return funds and proper timing of their buys and sells. In technical terms, is money smart in the mutual funds market? To test the ability of investors in these funds, we construct hypothetical portfolios based on fund flows and compare the average monthly return on inflows with outflows and the average fund. The results show that funds with more inflows perform better than the average fund which is consistent with the smart money hypothesis. Comparing the performance of individual and institutional investors separately also shows that individuals and institutional investors, on average, identify funds with higher and lower returns, but there is no evidence that one performs better than the other.

Analyzing the relationship between inequality and social unrest is a crucial issue which, requires a deep investigation. Adequate historical evident have indicated that countries with more political and social stability have been more successful in achieving the economic development as well. Poverty position, inequality, unemployment, hyperinflation and status of civil liberty, have had influential roles on political stability and economic development too. Inequality leads to unrest which in turn causes much more instability. In addition, instability threats property right and productive investment. This trend finally will decline economic growth and economic welfare. Hence, this article is testing and analyzing the relationship between inequality and politico-social unrest among 36 developed countries on one hand and 17 MENA countries (including Iran) on the other. Some findings of this work indicates that inequality causes unrest and political instability which eventually declines economic growth. According to the result of it improving political and social stability and alleviating inequality will decrease, social unrest.

In this study, we seek to answer the question of what effect investment has on stock returns, given the volatile market and the impact of a variety of crises, given the adjustment costs. For this purpose, using the rotary model and changing the Markov switching diet, the present topic for the period of 1370 to 1397 in the Iranian economy is examined. The results of Marcov's estimation of the period of recession and prosperity show; Positive oil shocks during the boom (second regime) have a positive effect on stock returns. Also, financial crises, sanctions and investment, despite the cost of adjusting, have a negative effect on stock returns in both periods of recession and prosperity. According to the model estimates, the economic downturn in the recession for the period under review in the present study is 18 periods of recession versus 9 periods of boom, which in turn increases the investment risk with the current situation. Therefore, it is suggested that in the event of oil shocks, financial crises and increased investment adjustment costs, the government and the central bank should preferably implement their policy in times of recession, because in these periods the economy has potential.

The goal of this study is to examine the effect of governance dimensions (political governance, social governance, economic governance) on the sustainable development index in OPEC Plus oil countries in the period 1997-2018. For this purpose, the panel method, based on the Chow test and the fixed effects method, based on the Hassman test, is used to estimate the research models. The results of estimating the models suggest that the rule of law index (as a representative of political governance) and the human development index (as a representative of social governance) have a positive and significant effect on the sustainable development index in the studied countries and the macroeconomic stability index (as a representative of economic governance) has a negative and significant effect on the sustainable development index of these countries, the results of which are confirmed by studies. Among the governance dimensions, social governance is the most important governance dimension affecting the sustainable development index in these countries.

One of the most important tasks in the field of government when intervening in economic systems is to try to distribute revenues more appropriately among different segments of society. The development of the financial system in two ways can affect this process. One of these ways is through the impact of the financial system on economic growth and how it is distributed among economic agents. In addition, financial development in terms of how to create investment opportunities for different segments of society will be able to influence the distribution of income. The aim of the present study was to investigate the functioning of the banking system in terms of facilities and deposits on the distribution of income inequality in the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, in the present study, quantitative regressions have been used as a suitable method in estimating income inequality models. The results of the period during 2011-2018 for 31 provinces of Iran showed that there is a positive and significant relationship in all deciles between the balance of facilities granted by banks and deposits of the banking system separately on income inequality. Therefore, it is recommended to pay serious attention to the issue of the impact of banking system performance factors on income inequality distribution in reforming the banking system.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil revenues and exchange rates on the amount of investment in the stock market in Iran using seasonal data in the period 2008-2016. To this end, the impact of oil revenues and exchange rates and the amount of liquidity on investment in the stock market in Iran has been estimated using the Markov-Switching two-mode model. The results of model estimation show that oil revenues, exchange rates and liquidity have different effects on investment in the stock market in Iran. Second regime are related to the variance and high average ( Prosperity) and diet (2) are associated with variance and low average (recession) regimes. It should be noted that in regime (1) only the volume of liquidity has a positive and significant effect on the amount of investment in the stock market, but in regime (2) the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect and oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on the amount of investment in the market Has had shares.

Inclusive growth has been the focus of much attention in many countries due to Low economic growth and widespread inequalities. Inclusive growth is a development concept that focuses on the process of achieving growth. It is created by opportunities and people’s participation in the growth process. Given that the government can take appropriate measures to providing the way for more inclusive growth, there is a close relationship between inclusive growth and government performance in good governance. In this regard, this study aims to investigate the relationship between good governance and inclusive growth and the panel data method has been used for two selected groups of middle and high per capita income countries in period 2010-2018. By measuring the multidimensional index of inclusive growth, it was observed that the average inclusive growth index for high income countries is higher than middle income countries. The results show that the good governance has a positive and significant effect on the inclusive growth index in middle per capita income countries, and other determinants of inclusive growth such as capital, labor, technology, trade openness, government expenditure and human development index have a positive effect on inclusive growth. It is recommended that middle income countries pay special attention to institutional reforms to provide the appropriate for people to participate in economic opportunities and achieve inclusive growth.

The purpose of this article was to assess competition and financial stability in the country's banking system by assessing capital and losses in times of crisis. In this study, using statistical information of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period 2006-2018, using the method of panel autoregression data, the relationship between macroeconomic variables with banking stability and banking competition was examined. The results showed that economic growth has led to an increase in banking stability and banking competition among the country's banks. On the other hand, banking stability has had a positive and significant impact on economic growth and banking competition. Finally, the results of the action-response charts and analysis of variance showed that the shock of the banking competition led to a positive reaction to economic growth and banking stability. The results indicate a significant relationship between competition and stability and confirming the view of fragility competition in Iran's banking industry. Also, the results of Granjer causality test showed the existence of a two-way relationship between the variables.

The oil industry has always played an important role in the economies of OPEC member countries, and current and future oil price fluctuations are among the factors increasing or decreasing the stock market index in OPEC member countries. The process of convergence and divergence of the total stock index can cause changes in oil sales. Countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to test two research hypotheses that there is a convergence of current and future oil prices with the total stock index of member countries using the model of spatial econometrics. For this purpose, the convergence of Sigma and Beta in the combined data of 12 OPEC countries during the period 1995-1998 was investigated using the Anslin model for the spatial econometric test. The findings showed that there was a convergence between the future oil prices with maturities of 1, 3 and 6 months with the total stock index of OPEC member countries and a slow convergence between the instantaneous price and the total stock index of OPEC member countries compared to the future oil price.