فهرست مطالب

مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام - پیاپی 14 (زمستان 1401)

فصلنامه مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 14 (زمستان 1401)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1401/12/01
  • تعداد عناوین: 6
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  • امیر زندی*، محمد رحیم زندی، مهدی احمدیان، حسین موسوی صفحات 1-25
    شناخت آینده و ایجاد تصویری از آن در زمان حال، از وظایف مدیران و سیاست گذاران کشورها است. ایجاد شناخت موردنظر باید به کمک روش های مناسب پیش بینی و تحلیل انجام شود. هرقدر این روش ها اتکاپذیرتر باشند، نتایج تحلیل و پیش بینی اهمیت بیشتری خواهد داشت. روش های تحلیل و پیش بینی مختلف هستند. در این میان سناریوسازی یکی از روش های مطالعه آینده و تحلیل امنیتی است که حاصل مطالعات پژوهشگران در تحلیل رخدادهای امنیتی است. در این پژوهش با توجه به فراگیری اهل سنت نسبت به سایر مذاهب موجود در کشور می کوشیم ضمن شناسایی کنشگران و پیشران ها و عدم قطعیت های موثر اهل سنت ایران در امنیت ملی به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که سناریوهای آینده تاثیر اهل سنت در امنیت ملی ایران کدامند؟ در این پژوهش مجموعه ای از روش ها و تکنیک های رایج در فرارشته مطالعه آینده را به کار می گیریم و آینده اهل سنت را با رویکردی میان رشته ای مطالعه می کنیم. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، پژوهشی کاربردی و از نظر روش کیفی است و اقدام اصلی در این پژوهش سناریونویسی به روش جی بی ان است. بر این اساس در قالب چهار سناریو آینده اهل سنت ایران را ترسیم می کنیم.
    کلیدواژگان: آینده پژوهی، امنیت ملی، اهل سنت، سناریو
  • محمد غفاری فرد*، فاطمه حسینی صفحات 27-52

    کشورهای اسلامی همانند سایر کشورها برای رسیدن به سطحی از رفاه نیازمند رشد اقتصادی هستند. بیشتر کشورهای در حال توسعه با کمبود منابع برای رسیدن به رشد و توسعه اقتصادی مواجه هستند. بنابراین در این کشورها جریان انواع سرمایه گذاری های خارجی اهمیت قابل توجهی دارد. هدف در این مقاله بررسی اثرگذاری بلندمدت جریان انواع سرمایه های خارجی شامل سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، کمک های رسمی توسعه ای و درآمدهای انتقالی اشخاص بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب اسلامی (جمهوری آذربایجان، بنگلادش، بنین، کامرون، مصر، اندونزی، ایران، اردن، قزاقستان، مراکش، نیجر، نیجریه، پاکستان، سودان، ترکیه، تونس و اوگاندا)  در سال های 2000 تا 2019 است. مدل این پژوهش بعد از انجام آزمون ها با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی پانل (حداقل مربعات کاملا اصلاح شده) برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که در بلندمدت جریان سرمایه های خارجی (کمک های رسمی توسعه ای، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و درآمدهای انتقالی شخصی) بر تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی این کشورها تاثیر مثبت و معناداری می گذارد. همچنین متغیرهای نیروی کار، سرمایه و مخارج دولت نیز اثر مثبت و معنا داری بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. بنابراین سیاست گذاران اقتصادی برای رونق اقتصادی باید سیاست های توسعه فضای کسب وکار، استفاده بهینه از منابع خارجی در توسعه زیرساخت ها و هدایت منابع افراد ملی ساکن در خارج از کشور را برای ارتقای شاخص های زیربنایی و اقتصادی  ملی در نظر بگیرند.

    کلیدواژگان: جریان سرمایه خارجی، حداقل مربعات کاملا اصلاح شده، رشد اقتصادی، کشورهای اسلامی
  • مهرشاد غفارزاده*، مهدی امیری، ایمان شعبان زاده صفحات 53-79
    پس از پایان جنگ سرد چین یک شبکه مشارکت جهانی تشکیل داده است. دیپلماسی مشارکتی چین در سه دهه اخیر به ابزار اصلی سیاست خارجی این کشور تبدیل شده و شاخص نمادین سطح روابط دوجانبه و چندجانبه با دولت ها و سازمان های بین المللی و منطقه ای است. این پرسش مطرح است که غرب آسیا چه جایگاهی در دیپلماسی مشارکتی چین دارد؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می شود که چین مانند گذشته شریک های خود را به قدرت های بزرگ محدود نکرده است که این راهبرد قابل توجه ترین تغییر در شبکه مشارکت چین است. از آنجایی که خارج از منطقه ایندو-پاسیفیک برای چین، غرب آسیا یکی از مهم ترین مناطق است، رویکرد چین به غرب آسیا مبتنی بر امنیت منابع مهم و دسترسی به بازارها و منابع است. این نوشتار استدلال می کند که سلسله مراتب سطوح دیپلماسی مشارکتی نشان می دهد که دولت ها و سازمان های منطقه غرب آسیا برای چین اهمیت دارند. بنابراین با درک این سلسله مراتب می توان رویکرد چین به روابط با کشورهای غرب آسیا را تحلیل کرد. دیپلماسی مشارکت چین با غرب آسیا بر محورهای انرژی، ابتکار یک کمربند و یک راه، سرمایه گذاری خارجی، تجارت و فناوری متمرکز است. روش پژوهش این مقاله توصیفی-تحلیلی است.
    کلیدواژگان: چین، دیپلماسی مشارکتی، غرب آسیا، مشارکت راهبردی
  • حسین کریمی فرد* صفحات 81-104
    بررسی تحولات سیاسی در عراق در سال های 2003 تا 2022 نشان می دهد که دموکراسی در این کشور از چندین جنگ داخلی گذر کرده است. هنوز انتخابات مورد تاکید همه گروه های مذهبی، قومی و سیاسی است، اما رقابت بین فرقه ها و گروه های مختلف سیاسی سبب بی ثباتی و گاه آشوب در این کشور شده است.  این پرسش مطرح است که در سال های 2003 تا 2022 چه عواملی سبب تنش و بی ثباتی در عراق شده است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می شود که دموکراسی انجمنی، دولت ضعیف، ناهمگونی جامعه سیاسی و نبود تفکر ملی نزد نخبگان از عوامل مهم بی ثباتی و تنش در عراق در سال های 2003 تا 2022 هستند. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که فروماندگی دولت مرکزی عراق به چرخه خشونت و فرقه گرایی در این کشور دامن زده است. ضعیف بودن دولت مرکزی سبب افزایش خواسته های گروه های قومی و مذهبی و شخصیت ها و کسب سهمیه بیشتری از قدرت شده است. فرقه گرایی سبب بی ثبات کردن دولت ها، مداخله بیشتر و تشدید جنگ قدرت شده است. هویت های فرقه ای امنیتی شده، به منبع بی ثباتی، درگیری و پراکندگی بیشتر در داخل تبدیل شده است. هرچند در قانون اساسی جدید عراق بر نظم جدید حقوقی و سیاسی دموکراتیک و کثرت گرایانه تاکید شده است، تا نهادینه شدن و استقرار کامل آن، زمان زیادی لازم است.
    کلیدواژگان: بی ثباتی سیاسی، دموکراسی، دموکراسی انجمنی، دولت ضعیف، عراق، فرقه گرایی
  • محمدرضا محمدی*، ابراهیم متقی، حسین سوری صفحات 105-127
    ناکامی راهبرد جهاد فتح از سوی داعش، سبب شده است تا به عنوان یک مولفه تطبیقی با شرایط جدید و راهبرد تروریستی جدید در دستور کار قرار گیرد. بر اساس آن، ساختار تشکیلاتی جدید با توجه به اشراف اطلاعاتی رقبا تدوین شد. این مسیله سبب سرعت بخشیدن به حملات، مخفی بودن این حملات، استفاده از لایه های مجازی ارتباطات اینترنتی، عضویابی و عملیات های اینترنتی می شود که توانایی سازمان های امنیتی را در مقابله با این گروه ها به شدت کاهش می دهد. افراط گرایی، بنیادگرایی و تروریسم در سال های اخیر در سراسر طیف ایدیولوژیک با روندی «پساسازمانی» گسترش یافته است. در این روند، با افزایش فعالیت های آنلاین، عضویت و حمایت از گروه های خاص مبهم تر شده و رشد جنبش های فراملی، سیال تر جریان داشته است. حملات تروریستی را افرادی انجام می دهند که هیچ ارتباط مشخصی با سازمان های شناسایی شده ندارند، اما نوعی روش همسان و ایدیولوژی مشترک در همه آن ها دیده می شود. در این مقاله با این فرض که افراط گرایی در سال های آینده در قالب «پساسازمان گرایی» گسترش خواهد یافت، می خواهیم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که اساسا تروریسم نوین بر اساس پساسازمان گرایی، چه مولفه ها، متغیرها و ساختاری دارد؟ هدف در این مقاله این است که با روش تحلیلی و با استفاده از نتایج چند پژوهش پیمایشی و ارایه مصداق هایی، محتوای مجازی بنیادگرایی پساسازمانی را به عنوان نسل چهارم تروریسم، تحلیل و مولفه های اصلی آن را شناسایی کنیم. یافته های این پژوهش این فرضیه را تایید می کند که موج چهارم بنیادگرایی در قالب پساسازمان گرایی نمود می یابد.
    کلیدواژگان: موج چهارم، بنیادگرایی افراطی، مدرن، پساسازمان گرایی
  • امیر رضا مقومی، *، شهروز شریعتی صفحات 129-154
    منطقه غرب آسیا یکی از مهم ترین مناطق بین المللی است که در دهه های اخیر با تحولات عمیق و گسترده ای روبه رو شده است. پویایی های سریع منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای، روابط بین دولت ها را متحول ساخته و صف بندی های جدیدی را در غرب آسیا به وجود آورده است. یکی از این تحولات بنیادی را در دگرگونی روابط بین عربستان سعودی و اسراییل می بینیم. در این مقاله به روش تحلیل پسارویدادی در پی تبیین جایگاه نظام مفهومی موازنه دور آمریکا بر روابط رو به رشد عربستان و اسراییل و ارزیابی پیامدهای توسعه این روابط بر منطقه غرب آسیا هستیم و می خواهیم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که سیاست گذاری ایالات متحده در غرب آسیا چگونه روابط عربستان سعودی و اسراییل را متاثر کرده است؟ در پاسخ به این پرسش این فرضیه مطرح می شود که آمریکا می کوشد با احیای رهنامه دوستونی پیشین خود در قالب نظام موازنه دور در غرب آسیا، امنیت این منطقه را در چارچوب راهبرد ثبات هژمونیک ایالات متحده تداوم بخشد. یافته های مقاله مبتنی بر روند پژوهی تحولات، همچنین نشان می دهد گسترش روابط اسراییل و عربستان سعودی می تواند منجر به تغییر ژیوپلیتیک انتقال انرژی در غرب آسیا شود و ژیوپلیتیک این منطقه را با تحولاتی احتمالی روبه رو سازد که این تغییرات در راستای منافع کلان ایالات متحده برای کنترل منابع انرژی جهان خواهد بود.
    کلیدواژگان: آمریکا، اسرائیل، عربستان سعودی، غرب آسیا، فلسطین
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  • Amir Zandi *, Mohammad Rahim Zandi, Mehdi Ahmadian, Hossein, Mousavi Pages 1-25
    Knowing the future and creating an image of it in the present is one of the duties of managers and policy makers of countries; Creating the desired knowledge should be done with the help of appropriate forecasting and analysis methods. Certainly, the more reliable the above methods are, the more important the analysis and prediction results will be. Analysis and forecasting methods are different. Meanwhile, scenario creation is one of the methods of future study and security analysis, which is the result of many researchers' studies in the analysis of security incidents. Based on scenario building, these researchers tried to understand security events and later they used this method in civilian and economic issues as well. Nowadays, scenario building is one of the important methods in formulating national security strategies. Therefore, considering the importance and necessity of the coordination and coherence of the country's strategic management in the fields of interaction with the Sunnis and its role in the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, under the title of future scenarios of the influence of religious minorities in the national security of J.A., it tries to use a scientific approach while The drawing of the mentioned scenarios will provide a relatively comprehensive view to the decision-makers and decision-makers in the Sunni area
    In order to create the necessary preparations for the start of the scenario writing process, first, the scenario writing team consisting of experts in various fields, stakeholders and future researchers, as well as the bank of experts, was formed, and then the issue of scenario writing was explained.At first, the issues and influencing factors in the formation of the future of the Sunnis and its effect on the promotion of the national security of the Islamic Republic are mentioned. These factors have been obtained during the study and review of previous researches and backgrounds, theoretical literature, as well as interviews with experts and a number of key players in different Sunni fields. In the following, these factors have been presented in the form of a questionnaire to experts and specialists in various fields to comment on their influence on the future of Sunnis. By summarizing the opinions and holding a panel of experts, 19 main factors were identified among these factors, which were provided to them separately in the second round of asking for opinions from experts to determine the importance and uncertainty of each. For the second round, it has been tried to get the participation of first-level experts who have a holistic and comprehensive approach to the issue of social messengers in the theoretical field and who are key actors in this field. The results of surveying experts' opinions determined the importance and uncertainty of each of the factors and their ranking, and in another panel, by analyzing the content of these factors, we found two main factors and key uncertainty that form the main framework and structure of the scenarios. By considering two modes for each of these key uncertainties and their intersection, four scenarios are formed, which after forming and evaluating them, have been introduced and written as the main scenarios for the future of Ahl al-Sunni and its effect on improving the national security of the Islamic Republic. According to the results of the conducted research, it seems that the conducted research can be considered as the beginning and the first scientific and practical step to manage the atmosphere of uncertainty in the future of the Sunnis of Iran and its effect on the promotion of national security, which is within the limits of the possibilities and difficulties caused by the limitations. access and has been able to visualize the future of Iran's Sunnis and its effect on improving national security with four scenarios, the summary of the drawn scenarios is as follows:The first scenario, which is the ideal scenario of the thesis, will be implemented when the regional power increases and the concerns and threats to Iran's territorial security in the borders decrease, and the elites and symbols of ethnic, scientific, artistic, sports, etc., Sunni citizens are in favor of national convergence. Currently, the nations and some governments of the neighboring countries emphasize the pivotal role of the Islamic Republic of Iran and declare their sense of security and survival in the win-win game and companionship with the Islamic Revolution of Iran.
    The second scenario happens when the extreme and deviant movements of Shia have infiltrated the governing and non-governing structures, including various government institutions and bodies, and the ground has been prepared for the increase in the activity of sects and extremist Shia movements.
    The third scenario occurs when the tension between Iran and some reactionary countries, including the United States, on the Persian Gulf has increased. Terrorist groups in the western and eastern borders of the country have put approximate scholars and regime affiliates on their agenda.
    The fourth scenario happens when the pressures and cruel sanctions against the Iranian nation have increased, and Shia and Sunni extremist groups have succeeded in creating propaganda and terrorist cells inside the society and have threatened the national security of the Islamic Republic. In this scenario, on the one hand, due to the lack of presence of the elites and close people in the government body, they have established a non-confrontational mechanism between Shiites and Sunnis.
    Although the Islamic Republic of Iran is a national society in general, it is a composite society in which there is a lot of diversity, multiplicity and multiplicity. This wide spectrum includes the set of elements that form the ethnic, racial, cultural, linguistic, religious and religious composition of the country. From a religious point of view, Iranian society is a plural society; In the sense that the population structure in Iran is faced with the phenomenon of ethnic and cultural pluralism as well as religious and religious pluralism. In this sense, although the official religion of the country is Islam and the official religion is Shiism, alongside the majority of Shiite Muslims, there are many religious and religious minorities who form a considerable number both in terms of quantity and in terms of the intensity of religious affiliations and tendencies. They have a loyal and helpful following. This issue by itself can be considered as a platform for reducing the acculturation factor and social cohesion of the society; Therefore, it is necessary to maintain solidarity and national unity, vigilance and long-term policies based on the first scenario to properly manage this issue.
    Keywords: Scenarios, Religious, National Security, Iran
  • Mohammad Ghafarifard *, Fatemeh Hosseini Pages 27-52

    Islamic countries, like other countries, need economic growth to achieve a level of prosperity.Most developing countries face a shortage of resources to achieve economic growth and development. Therefore, in these countries, the flow of various types of foreign investment is of considerable importance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term impact of foreign capital inflows, including FDI foreign direct investment, ODA Official development assistance, and the personal remittances of PR entities on economic growth. selected Islamic countries countries (Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Benin,Cameroon, Ajibat, Indonesia, Iran,Jordan, Kazakhstan, Marco, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkey, Tunisia and Uganda)  during the period 2000-2019. the model of this research is estimated after the tests using the panel econometric method of fully modified least squares. the results show that in the long run the flow of foreign capital (official development assistance, foreign direct investment and personal remittances) has a positive effect. And has a significant impact on the real gdp of these countries. also, the variables of labor, capital and government expenditures have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. therefore, economic policymakers for economic prosperity should consider policies to develop the business environment, the optimal use of foreign resources in the development of infrastructure and directing the resources of nationals living abroad to improve national infrastructure and economic indicators.
    Given that economic growth is considered a necessity to ensure the well-being of societies, countries are always striving to achieve their desired economic growth, which has its own conditions for achieving economic growth in each country. One of the factors to achieve economic growth is having sufficient resources. Islamic countries, including developing countries, are also facing a shortage of sufficient resources, and to solve this problem, they need a variety of foreign investments. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of foreign investment (foreign direct investment, personal transfer income and official development assistance) on the economic growth of 17 selected Islamic countries during the period 2000 to 2019 using the FMOLS econometric method (fully modified least squares). ) In Eviews10 software.
    In order to be static and there is a long-term relationship between dependent and independent variables, unit root test (Phillips-Prone) and cumulative test (Cao) have been used. The variables are left with a 99% probability level and in the cohesion test with a 99% probability level, the relationship between the variables is long-term. To determine the nature of the test and the effects of width from the source of observations in the model estimation, Aflimer and Hausmann tests were performed. The model of this research was performed after the tests by panel method (at least completely reconstructed squares) with fixed effects. The results of this model show that the variables of capital, labor, personal transfer revenues, foreign direct investment, official development assistance and government expenditures with coefficients (0.034, 0.658, 0.286, 0.037, 0.0522, 0.427) on the economic growth of 17 selected countries, respectively. Islam has a positive and significant effect. As seen in the theoretical foundations and research background in different countries, the inflow of various types of foreign capital, if the optimal conditions for their use exist in the host country and are used in the construction and infrastructure sectors, will lead to economic growth. Also, the use of different types of foreign capital varies from country to country. If foreign direct investment is used according to the conditions of the same country, it can lead to the transfer of advanced technology, increase exports and economic growth and development. Personal transfer revenues increase foreign exchange reserves and, if invested in production, lead to lower inflation and economic growth. Formal development assistance provided to governments to reduce poverty, which, if used in the field of development, will contribute to economic growth. This study is in line with the study of Mohammad Molaei (1397). In order to effectively influence foreign investment and accelerate its entry into countries, it is necessary to ensure political stability and economic security, including the improvement of infrastructure, the establishment and implementation of appropriate laws and regulations.
    - Pay serious attention to economic policies to increase the ratio of physical capital to labor force to increase productivity. Policymakers must pay close attention to the implementation of laws and the management system, to reduce corruption and not allow the lack of oversight to waste resources on foreign aid. Also strengthening the business environment, especially the removal of legal, political and international trade restrictions and the adoption of open economic policies will strengthen economic growth. It is suggested that the inflow of foreign capital be spent on the national interests of countries and economic and social goals to reduce corruption, poverty, inequality and foreign debt in the medium and long term. Recipients of formal development aid must provide the necessary conditions for the use of this aid in profitable activities in order to promote economic growth and development. Otherwise, the aid will be spent only on unnecessary military expenditures and the import of luxury and consumer goods. In order to positively affect the inflows of foreign direct investment on economic growth, serious attention should be paid to facilities and the expansion of financial systems and the cohesion of monetary and financial markets, the reduction of barriers and restrictions, and the strengthening of communication technologies 

    Keywords: Economic growth, foreign capital flows, Islamic countries, at fully modified least squares
  • Mehrshad, Ghafarzadeh *, Mehdi Amiri, Iman Shabanzadeh _ Pages 53-79
    After the end of the Cold War, China has formed a global partnership network. In the last three decades, China's participatory diplomacy has become the main tool of this country's foreign policy and is a symbolic indicator of the level of bilateral and multilateral relations with governments and international and regional organizations. The main question of the article is what is the position of West Asia in China's cooperative diplomacy? In response to the main question, the hypothesis of the article is that China has not limited its partners to big powers as in the past, which is the most significant change in China's partnership network. Since West Asia is one of the most important regions for China outside the Indo-Pacific region, China's approach to West Asia is based on the security of key resources and access to markets and resources. This article argues that the hierarchy of levels of participatory diplomacy shows that the governments and organizations of the West Asian region are important for China. Therefore, by understanding this hierarchy, it is possible to analyze China's approach to relations with West-Asian countries. China's partnership diplomacy with West Asia is centered around energy, the Belt and Road Initiative, foreign investment, trade and technology. The research method of this article is descriptive-analytical.
    After the end of the Cold War, China has formed a global and multidimensional partnership network. Since 1993, when Beijing established its first strategic partnership with Brazil, cooperative diplomacy has gradually become one of the main components of China's grand diplomacy, and Beijing has expanded its special relations in the world with the concept of strategic partnership. To better understand China's strategic evolution in diplomacy, we need to know how these partnerships are formed and what motivates Beijing to strengthen its partnership network. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, by the end of 2021, more than 100 partnerships have been established at different levels, which include regional and international countries and organizations. These partnerships have been a prominent tool in China's diplomatic toolkit to ensure a suitable environment for the country's emergence. As a diplomatic tool, strategic partnership diplomacy reflects a broader change in China's development path and its diplomacy paradigm. China is not unique in using participatory diplomacy as a way to advance its national interests, but what distinguishes China's approach is that Beijing has placed participatory networks at the center of its foreign policy strategy. Also, like in the past, China has not limited its partners to big powers, which is the most significant change in China's partnership network. In fact, cooperative diplomacy has become China's prominent strategy to advance its economic and political growth. From an economic point of view, China is looking for partnerships with countries that have the ability to provide a market for Chinese goods and natural resources and strengthen China's economic presence in the world. Politically, China's goal of participation is to counter American pressure and create a favorable political environment for China's rise. Outside the Indo-Pacific region, West Asia is the most important region for China. The unique geopolitical position of West Asia is a vital source for the exchange of energy, technology and expansion of economic, trade and investment relations between the two sides.
      In the last decade, China has increased its economic, political and, to a lesser extent, its security footprint in West Asia and has become the largest trading partner and foreign investor for many countries in the region; China's role has also expanded with the announcement by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 of the Belt and Road Initiative, which is the cornerstone of China's modern strategy. We start this article by analyzing the concept of strategic partnership based on the existing literature in international relations. Since there is no consensus on the meaning of the term strategic partnership, in this article we use the conceptual framework of Thomas Wilkins to explain the partnership between China and the West Asia region. Wilkins is one of the few authors who explained the conceptual framework of strategic partnership. The main question of the article is what is the position of West Asia in China's cooperative diplomacy? In response to this question, we propose the hypothesis that China has not limited its partners to big powers as in the past, that this strategy is the most significant change in China's partnership network, and China's partnership diplomacy with West Asia with energy, foreign investment, trade, innovation One Belt and One Road is focused, and Beijing is careful to avoid repeating what it sees as Western interference and present a narrative of neutral engagement with all countries, including those that are in conflict with each other, based on mutually beneficial agreements.
    In this article, after analyzing the concept of strategic partnership diplomacy and reviewing the existing literature, we examined the position of West Asia in China's strategic partnership diplomacy. The findings of the research showed that China did not limit its partners to big powers as in the past, which is the most significant change in China's partnership network. Since West Asia is the most important region for China outside the Indo-Pacific region, China's approach to West Asia is based on the security of key resources and access to markets and resources. The hierarchy of levels of cooperative diplomacy shows that the governments and organizations of the West Asian region are important to China. Therefore, by understanding this hierarchy, China's approach to relations with West Asian countries can be analyzed.
      China's partnership diplomacy with West Asia focuses on energy, the Belt and Road Initiative, foreign investment, and trade and technology. In general, strategic partnerships go beyond security alignments. This is especially true for China. In recent years, Beijing has repeatedly emphasized that the partnerships are "a new type of state-to-state relationship and not against any third state." What makes China's approach unique is that partnership networks are at the strategic center of China's foreign policy. It seems that China's choice to create a cooperative diplomacy network is not accidental. On the contrary, it is determined to a large extent by the three factors of the need to deal with American pressure, the need to maintain peace and stability in its borders, and to achieve the long-term goal of modernization. Overall, although China's main goal is to seek economic benefits while avoiding political conflict, it seems that Beijing cannot indefinitely avoid playing an active role in regional security. In order to protect its long-term economic interests in West Asia, as well as to present itself as an emerging power in the multipolar international order, China will find it necessary to play a greater and more active role in the security and political dynamics of the region as soon as possible.
    Keywords: Cooperative Diplomacy, China, West-Asia, Strategic Partnership
  • Hossein, Karimifard * Pages 81-104
    Stability and dispute in heterogeneous societies with diverse racial, linguistic, religious, and ethnic factors are among the topics of interest to researchers and social scientists. They try to understand how rival social groups can communicate without conflict, chaos, or collapse while avoiding violence and oppression and achieving stability through “bargaining and compromise” (since otherwise, the institutionalization of sectarian identities may result in conflict over leadership and power among various groups). Like other Middle Eastern nations, Iraq has a mosaic-like social structure. This country’s diverse population includes ethnic and religious diversity, resulting in ethnoreligious structural gaps. In addition to the three major groups-, namely Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites- minority groups of Iraq include Mandaeans, Jews, Christians, and Yazidis. Iraq also hosts Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Turkmens as ethnic groups. This country is divided into eighteen provinces; the three Northern provinces are home to Sunni Kurds, the three northwestern and western provinces to Sunni Arabs, and the nine eastern and southern provinces to Shiite Arabs. Demographically, none of the ethnic and religious groups constitutes the absolute majority. The Kurdish provinces of Iraq share borders with Iranian, Turkish, and Syrian Kurds. Sunni parts of Iraq border Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, while Shia provinces of Iraq border Iran. This has led to interaction between these social groups and their neighboring countries.
    During Saddam’s rule over Iraq, there was no balance between the “society”, “sovereignty”, and “identity” of the government. People lacked a sense of belonging to Iraq as a nation or as Iraqis, and the government did not properly represent all social groups. On the one hand, the fall of Saddam’s dictatorial regime and the absence of civil and democratic culture, the rule of law, non-compliance with democratic rules, and disregard for the interests of society caused disputes and tension between various groups in Iraq, resulting in widespread turmoil and instability.
    A study of political developments in Iraq from 2003 to 2022 shows that democracy has survived in the country despite several civil wars. Although the elections is still accept by all different groups, competition between different sects and political groups has become instability and chaos.
    Since there were various sects and political groups in Iraq after Saddam, the political elites agreed to establish an associative democracy model based on a power-sharing approach. Associationalism and power sharing are complementary aspects of the same concept. Associationalism is a theory that examines power distribution in highly diversified societies. Power distribution necessitates that various parties have access to key positions of decision-making authority. According to social theory, political stability in ethnically, religiously, or linguistically heterogeneous societies is created by evaluating the power distribution at the leadership level.This research used descriptive, interpretive, and explanatory methods; this research employs an inductively based analytical-explanatory method. Consulting library and internet sources, as well as articles and geographical maps depicting the status of various religious or ethnic groups collected data. The paper illustrates the instability in Iraq by focusing on the conceptual model of associative democracy, the system of power sharing, and sectarianism.
    According to the findings, after the occupation by America and the fall of Saddam Hussein, the country of Iraq has faced many difficulties and after years of war, sanctions and occupation, it entered the difficult stage of transition to democracy. Current Iraq is a clear example of the identity crisis. Ethnic and religious pluralism has caused conflicting political and social differences. Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis are the main players in this country. Until 2033, different ethnicities and identities did not have the opportunity to express themselves. The American attack and the overthrow of the Baath regime brought Iraq into a new and unstable stage, and different groups and ethnicities pursued the goals and demands of their conflicting political and social identities. The downturn of the Iraqi central government has stimulated the cycle of violence and sectarianism in this country. Due to the central government's inadequacies, ethnic and religious groups, as well as politicians, have increased their expectations of gaining more power. On the other hand, sectarianism has led to government instability, increased foreign military intervention, and intensified power struggles. The securitization of sectarian identities has become a source of instability, conflict, and increased fragmentation within the borders. Although the new Iraqi constitution emphasizes a democratic or pluralistic political and legal policy, it will take a considerable amount of time for such a policy to be institutionalized or fully established.
    There are different views about the causes of tension and violent conflicts in Iraq. Some researchers emphasize the external factor and emphasize the role of great powers and   some regional actors. For example, some consider the occupation of Iraq by the US and the presence of the country's military forces as an important cause of instability and internal conflicts in this country. In addition, others, the presence of Israel, Arabia, and Turkey have highlighted the ethnic and religious divides in Iraq and the transfer of insecurity to other countries.
    In this research, emphasizing the type of political system and the population structure of Iraq deals with tensions in this country. Contemporary Iraqi history shows that Britain and France created it after the Ottoman collapse. Since then, there has been tension in this country with the integration of demographic groups with diversity and conflicts of identity in Iraq combined with the manipulation of geopolitics and artificial borders by Britain and France.
    During Saddam's rule over Iraq, stability was established with the means of repression and fear. Post-Saddam Iraq has been described as an example of shared or consensus democracy. Amidst the deep social divisions that characterize pluralistic societies, this model is thought to be effective in supporting democracy in a country. Heterogeneous societies are divided into sub-communities by religious, ideological, linguistic, cultural, ethnic, or racial factors, with nearly distinct political parties, influential groups, and media. Some researchers think that the present-day issues in Iraq are a result of the country's political system or associative democracy: associative democracy has caused the deepening and escalation of groupings, government inefficiency, and, finally, instability and chaos in Iraq. Most notably, pervasive disaffection with Iraq's ethno-sectarian sociopolitical system has fueled an increasingly coordinated protest movement that has brought over a million people to Baghdad’s and southern Iraqi cities’ streets since 2019. Politicians are devastated by the Iraqi government’s ineffective measures to transform a dictatorial system into a democratic system after 2003. From the perspective of Iraqi citizens, politicians use their positions only for personal gain and neglect their public responsibilities to improve the economy, security, services, and infrastructures. They claim that widespread corruption is strongly associated with ethnic sectarianism in the Iraqi parliament. According to them, although the distribution of political power based on ethnic and religious minorities may help maintain elite consensus because party-political networks are based on sects and tribal policies, they prioritize control over participation, loyalty over qualifications, and personal interests over public interests. These factors impede Iraq’s development and stability. To restore stability in Iraq, political elites should use democratic bargaining methods to achieve peace and fulfill their requirements. Supporting policies that strengthen pervasive coalitions and veto power may help to stabilize the system and reduce cultural conflicts. To sum up, effective governance in Iraq necessitates prioritizing public interests over private interests.
    Keywords: Iraq, Consociational Democracy, Political instability, sectarianism
  • Mohammad Reza, Mohammadi *, Ebrahim, Motaghi, Hossein Suri Pages 105-127
    The failure of ISIS' Jihad Fatah strategy has caused it to be put on the agenda as a component of adapting to new conditions and a new terrorist strategy. Based on that, a new organizational structure was developed according to the information elites of the competitors. This problem accelerates the attacks, the secrecy of these attacks, the use of virtual layers of internet communication, membership and internet operations, which greatly reduces the ability of security organizations to deal with these groups. In recent years, extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism have spread across the ideological spectrum with a "post-organizational" trend. In this process, with the increase of online activities, the membership and support of specific groups has become more ambiguous and the growth of transnational movements has flowed more fluidly. Terrorist attacks are carried out by people who have no clear connection with the identified organizations, but a kind of similar method and common ideology can be seen in all of them. In this article, with the assumption that extremism will spread in the form of "post-organizationalism" in the coming years, we want to answer the question, what are the components, variables, and structure of modern terrorism based on post-organizationalism? The purpose of this article is to analyze and identify the virtual content of post-organizational fundamentalism as the fourth generation of terrorism by using the results of several survey studies and providing examples. The findings of this research confirm the hypothesis that the fourth wave of fundamentalism is manifested in the form of post-organizationalism.
    Extremism is a kind of semantic and socially constructed structure that is studied at the three levels of the basics of thought, belief and behavior. Regarding the formation of the extreme Salafist movement, which is a concrete type of contemporary extremism, the analysis of a historical background shows; Intellectually, this current has its roots in Hanbali jurisprudence, hadithism and thoughts such as Ibn Taymiyyah and Ibn Abd al-Wahhab, and in the form of the religious understanding of the Salaf, it produces beliefs such as heresy and ignorance, certain rules and norms of behavior based on takfir and jihad. However, the discussion about the normative roots and doctrines of extremism in the Islamic world cannot explain the reasons for its formation and expansion. As the action of contemporary extremists shows, external structures at different national, regional and international levels have had important effects on their understanding, identification and role finding. Based on this, we must perceive Salafi terrorism as one of the most important dynamics of the Islamic world and as an international security crisis over several decades in a combined framework including the identity of the foundation, the internal base culture, and external structural pressures. This combined process based on construction in a historical context has led to the emergence of numerous groups and generations of terrorist extremism. Now, with the physical end of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, an important issue is the future of extreme Salafism in the Islamic world. Because examining the order governing the evolution of extremism in the Islamic world and the future possibilities of extremism, while being a suitable platform for improving the scientific understanding of the dynamics of the Islamic world and relations at the level of the international structure, will also have strategic dimensions for the national security of the Islamic Republic. Because, on the one hand, structural developments at the international level in the field of terrorism are important for the Islamic Republic as an influential regional player in the Islamic world, and on the other hand, the threat of takfiri terrorism is still considered a threat to the future of the Islamic world. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the order governing the process of extremist Salafist developments in order to determine the factors affecting the future trends of Salafist extremism and their new way of acting.
    After the London Bridge attack in June 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May warned that social media companies, including Twitter and Facebook, must eradicate extremist safe spaces. Speaking at the Global Forum in Davos in January 2018, he said, "Tech companies still need more programs to step up their responsibilities to deal with malicious and illegal corporate online activities." Companies cannot be neutral when their operating systems deal with extremist and terrorist content. He was probably concerned about the use of the Internet, especially social networks, for violent purposes, terrorist purposes, and their supporters (academic groups, policymakers, and the general public). This concern is due to the apparent connections between Internet networks, the content of violent extremist and terrorist activities online, and the application of extremist ideology that has been used for terrorist groups or movements or planning attacks. Apparently, the easy access to a huge amount of terrorist and violent extremist content on popular social networks is a major concern. Twitter has come under increased scrutiny due to their response to the use of its infrastructure by ISIS, also known as ISIS. Experts from the British Homeland Security confirmed at the time that this attack was the first terrorist attack to date that was planned from start to finish on social networks. The London Bridge attacks were presented as the beginning of post-organizationalism in extremism and terrorism.
    In this article, assuming that the phenomenon of post-organizationalism will be discussed as a new leadership model of terrorism in the future generations of Salafis, we are looking for the answer to the question, what are the components of the new post-organizationalism? Then, with the approach that post-organizationalism is considered as the fourth structural evolution of extreme Salafism after solidarity jihad, spatial jihad and restoration of caliphate and jihad of conquest, we examine the dimensions of modern terrorism in this structure.
    From the ideological point of view, Islamic extremism is equal to the Islamic form of traditional extreme conservatism ideology in Islamic societies. In this model, there are also the basic elements of traditional western conservatism; Issues such as the belief that humans have become evil and society has become corrupt, calling for a return to the past that is better than destroyed and high traditions, opposing social changes, focusing on moral principles, demonizing enemies and extreme policies. In addition, there is a tendency to combine the church and the state and the rule of good people in Christianity in Islamic extremism as Oliver Roy said: fundamentalists have many similar characteristics, perhaps the first and most important of which is Western Christian fundamentalists. Roy believes that the essence of fundamentalism is tied to concepts such as identity, and issues such as identity, society, education and social construction are still the most important factors in societies' tendency towards fundamentalism, concepts that are defined as constructivism in international relations.
    Keywords: Fourth Wave, Fundamentalism, Extremism, post-organizationism
  • Amir Reza Moghavemi, *, Shahrouz, Shariati Pages 129-154
    The West Asian region is one of the most important international regions that has faced deep and extensive changes in recent decades. For many decades, Riyadh advocated the formation of an independent Palestinian state and opposed the occupation of the Zionist regime. In other words, Saudi Arabia's commitment to Palestine defined the geopolitics of the West Asian region for several decades. Observing the recent developments in the relations between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime shows the move of Riyadh and Tel Aviv towards the normalization of relations. from this point of view, Rapid regional and extra-regional dynamics have transformed relations between governments and created new alignments in West Asia. The article, using post-event analysis, seeks to explain the growing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel under offshore balancing of USA. In this article, we want to answer the question of how the US policy in West Asia has affected the relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In response to this question, the hypothesis is raised that the United States is trying to maintain the security of this region in the framework of the hegemonic stability strategy by reviving its former policy, twin pillars policy in west Asia. As Kenneth Pollack, an expert of the American Enterprise Institute, in an article entitled "America's Exit and the Coming Contest for Military Supremacy" writes, America began to reduce its role and conflict in the region since Obama's time, and this process continued in subsequent administrations. America's withdrawal from the region has created a security vacuum that Iran and its allies are trying to fill. The domination of Iran and the retreat of the United States have frightened the country's allies and led them to form an alliance with Israel in order to change the disturbed regional balance in their favor. At the beginning of his writing, Pollock states that: "it seems fantastical, but observers may soon look back on the late twentieth century as a period of relative stability in the Middle East. Although there was no shortage of conflict and mayhem, the violence rarely led to dramatic change. No states were conquered and eliminated outright. Dictators came and went, but borders and even regimes changed little, After 1973, most of the major countries in the region stopped fighting one another directly, opting for terrorism and insurgency—strategies of the weak—over conventional attacks...". A part of this article showed that the revelation of the relations between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime is the result of a gradual historical evolution process. The development of Saudi Arabia's relations with the Zionist regime can be divided into four stages: military confrontation with the Zionist regime and full support for Palestine (1948-1980); Establishing secret relationships (1980-2011); establishing open relationships (2011-2016); Close communication and moving towards the normalization of relations (since 2017). Meanwhile, common political-security problems, the situation in the Middle East after the US withdrawal, the use of geopolitical and technological advantages, as well as the use of the Zionist lobby in Washington by Saudi Arabia and the use of Saudi influence in the Islamic world by Israel, are the most important factors of friendship between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.This article shows that Saudi Arabia and Israel, who have tied their security to the United States, fear the influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region more than ever. The findings of the article, based on the last developments in the region, also show that the expansion of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia can lead to a change in the geopolitics of energy transfer in West Asia and confront the region with new developments that are in line with the interests of the United States to control the world's energy resources. However, the article has also pointed out that the issue of Palestine and its importance in the public opinion inside Saudi Arabia and the people of the region is an obstacle in the finalization of the relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv and will be the main variable in the future of the relations between the two.
    Keywords: Zionist regime, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, West Asia, America