نشریه تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران
سال هشتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 22، پاییز و زمستان 1401)

In this article, the impact of income inequality (measured by both the Gini coefficient and the share of the ( top) wealthiest ten percent to the poorest ten percent) on tax structure in Iran in the period of 1978-2020 by using the ARDL model is investigated. The results showed that both in the short and long term, income inequality (both measures of income inequality) has increased the ratio of indirect taxes to GDP. While its impact on the direct tax ratio was negative. Therefore, income inequality leads to the turning of the tax capacity from direct taxes to indirect taxes. Therefore, the tax system in Iran has not been progressive and relies on indirect taxes. This result can be justified by the structure of Iran's economy, which is not easy to collect direct taxes due to the underground economy and tax evasion and the government is relying on indirect taxes to earn income.

Marine tourism attracts a lot of tourists every year for the countries that have access to the sea and have been able to use this opportunity and potential, and has led to the development of these areas. In Iran, the northern and southern provinces also have this potential. The northern provinces have been able to make more progress in the field of tourism due to the different climatic conditions, the existence of green and forested areas and the access of a large population. In the south of the country, Kish Island is a successful example in attracting sea tourists. 85% of the length of the coast is in the south of the country, the southern provinces have not been able to use this potential. One of these provinces is Khuzestan, which has better access than the other southern coastal provinces, but has not been able to use it well. This study aims to investigate the position of Khuzestan among the southern coastal provinces in tourism with emphasis on marine tourism, from various indicators, sub-indicators and components to compare the potentials and capacities used in these provinces and using the method TOPSIS benefits.The results show that Khuzestan is in the second place after Hormozgan province and then Bushehr and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces are located. Khuzestan ranks first in the access and non-marine tourism attraction , second in the infrastructure index and number of marine tourists and fourth in the marine tourism attraction index among the four southern coastal provinces.

The success of capital market investors depends on their mastery of market structure, opportunities and threats, also knowledge of financial market analysis methods. This study, in the time domain of the research (2017 to 2018) and in the statistical population of the research, which is all the companies of the two petroleum and chemical groups of the Tehran Stock Exchange, tries to compare the two analytical methods of CANSLIM and Ichimoku. In this research, while identifying the top stocks based on CANSLIM, the back testing of the Ichimoku trading strategy and its profitability evaluation has been done, and finally, while introducing the adjusted CANSLIM model and appropriate to the Tehran Stock Exchange, the profitability of the combined strategy of adjusted CANSLIM and Ichimoku has been evaluated. The general result of the research was that the profitability of the combined trading method of adjusted CANSLIM and Ichimoku, whose win rate in this research was at least 66%, is more profitable than the investment method based on CANSLIM. In this study, the criteria of new higher prices, market direction, and the institutional sponsorship, which are the constituent elements of adjusted consensus, were recognized as the most effective indicators for identifying superior stocks.

One of the most important issues related to the environment is the increase in energy consumption in economic activities. On the one hand, energy is a major production input that is necessary for production and economic growth. On the other hand, energy consumption causes the emission of greenhouse gases and also air pollutants such as carbon dioxide. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects (spillovers) of energy consumption intensity on carbon dioxide emissions in the provinces of Iran during 2008-2017 using the model of spatial econometrics. Before estimating the model, at first the Levin, Lin, Chou (LLC) unit root test was estimated to evaluate the stationarity of the variables, then after performing the Hausman test and multiple Wald and Wald diagnostic tests used to selection of best model. The results of model have shown that energy intensity, per capita GDP and population of regions have had a significant positive and direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the regions. Also, energy intensity, per capita GDP and change in the structure of the provinces have had indirect effects on the production of the provinces

Spatial planning programs at the national and regional levels are very helpful in achieving development, maintaining the balance of the regions and providing an operational framework for each province in order to implement national development strategies (of course, with full consideration of environmental considerations and regional capabilities). Among the country's spatial planning documents, the compilation, study, review and implementation of the Spatial planning document of Tehran province as the capital of the country, which also has administrative, political, economic, service, and commercial centers, is of great importance. In this study by using of 1393 regional statistics, a regional input-output coefficients for Tehran province is calculated based on FLQ-RAS method. In this research, we seek to answer an important question: Do the key sections introduced in the Tehran province Spatial planning document correspond to the key sections extracted from the regional data-output table? The results indicate that there is a difference between the key sections of the provincial Spatial planning document and the sections extracted in this study; Therefore, despite the existence of theoretical and practical shortcomings in Spatial planning in Iran, Even if the province's Spatial planning are based on a planning document, Due to these differences, Targeting economic activities and proper prioritization will not be done in allocating limited resources, and the resulting problems will always threaten the province.

The issue of export development is the first priority of the government’s economic policies in all countries in the world, including Iran. As the main supporter of any country’s economy, government may play a key role in supporting corporations to facilitate the export of their products. Accordingly, corporations consider political connections as a competitive advantage and they are keen to establish political connections with the government so that they can enhance their export earnings. Hence, the current study has been aimed at investigating the effect of political connections on companies exports incomes of firms in Tehran Stock Exchange. The study sample consists of 150 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2019. To test the research hypotheses, multivariate regression model with panel data has been used by random effect method. The results of testing the research hypotheses reveal that in Tehran Stock Exchange, political connections measured by state institutional ownership and political connections measured by a major state-owned shareholder have a significant positive effect on corporate export Incomes. I.e., in exporting products, corporations with political connections are more successful than the other firms are, and such companies have higher export incomes.

Population and fertility rates are one of the most important economic variables since they affect the aggregate labor supply and demand. Population growth has many influences on different aspects of life, such as markets, environment, education, employment, and finally economic growth. In this paper, we investigate the effect of economic variables such as per capita production, housing rent, family planning, women's participation rate. This study investigates the data of the variables in period of 1360-1395 about Iran which has been done by ARDL method. The results show that per capita income has a negative effect on fertility. The women's education and participation should be interpreted along with other factors, because alone are not good explanations for the total fertility rates. In these years when the government imposed a family planning programme, fertility rates have declined. The house rent rate also has unclear impact on fertility rate, because fertility rate is high when house rental rate is low, but when house rental rate is high, the fertility rate doesn't decrease.

Contrary to the public perception that income inequality is due to differences in individuals' abilities and motivations, differences in economic, social, and institutional structures are also important factors in generating income inequality. The complex-structured economies and more developed institutions provide individuals with more opportunities for education and job choice and reduce income inequality. This study investigates the effect of economic complexity and institutional structure on income inequality within the Kuznets curve. The sample used in this study was 43 developing countries during the period of 2015-2002 and dynamic panel econometric method was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that good governance as a proxy for institutional quality, and economic complexity have had a significant negative impact on income inequality in developing countries. These results show that institutional and structural factors, as two other dimensions of development, have also had a significant impact on income inequality in developing countries.

Keeping the unemployment rate low is one of the main axes of fiscal policy, labour market and monetary policy. Unemployment also has implications for the outlook for wage growth, inflation and GDP. Therefore, achieving a level of unemployment where inflation is slow is one of the important and key goals of economic policy makers.This article examines the hypothesis that NAIRU rate has been rising in recent years and whether efforts to simply keep unemployment low and policies to reduce unemployment have led to recession and hysteria. For this study, using the model of temporal changes in the form of space-state model and white the help of inflation, expected inflation, unemployment rate and productivity during the years 1997-2021, the NAIRU rate for the Iranian economy was estimated. The results indicate that the NAIRU rate has experienced a downward trend over the years under review. The average NAIRU estimate for the years under review was 11.6 percent.

A close look at the time series of the regional accounts of the statistical center of Iran suggests that in the near future, some economic sectors will enter the regional accounts of particular provinces. Despite the fact that the emergence of a new sector in some regions of Iran has been also highlighted, the investigation of the emergence of a new sector in a region has not yet been considered by domestic researchers. A clear example of the emergence of a new sector in a region is the construction of the city railway tracks in the province of Gilan. In this context, the main question of this article is that what are the potential economic impacts of the entry of the new railway section on the output of other parts of Gilan province? in order to answer the abovementioned question, we evaluate the socioeconomic consequences of the entry of new railway section into the Gilan province in the form of two approaches of demand-to-production and production-to-production, as well compare the job creation of Gilan province before and after the entrance of railway section. The results demonstrate that with the entrance of the railway section, the output of the two sections of “Warehousing and Support activities”and“land and Pipeline Transportation” will have are the largest increase in the economic sectors of the Gilan province. Also, it will potentially increase job creation potential of “gas and water supply”, “water transportation”, “travel services” and “basic metals”more than other economic sectors of the province.

According to state of the economy and single product much government spending is financed from oil revenues. Since the changes in oil prices stems from exogenous developments and economic authorities outside of the control of oil revenues is also a great deal of volatility. These fluctuations can have a variety of consequences.In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, this paper attempts to drive a fiscal policy reaction function (in term of government expenditure). The data are analyzed in this study - which is for the period 1969-2018 and annual basis. I study the fiscal implications of (a) the anticipated change oil price, (b) the growing volatility of oil price, (c) the observed positively skewed oil price. The result show that a robust positive long run effect of favorable oil price shocks. Also, the asymmetry of oil price shocks is to reduce the growth of government spending.The most important policy advice of this article is that policymakers, using the successful experiences of other oil countries, to establish an institution such as a savings and investment fund, to prevent direct shocks to the domestic economy and the negative effects of oil price instability. Reduce GDP and government revenues.

Economic growth and efforts to improve the welfare during the past decade with the increasing demand for more exploitation and extraction of natural resources lead to exploitation and extreme environment and therefore many and sometimes irreparable damage to the environment.Sustainable development by integrating economic, social and environmental goals, tried to dampen the negative consequences caused by the absolute emphasis on economic objectives in the development process. In fact sustainable development is seen that in addition to economic, social and environmental dimensions of development will also be considered. With respect to sustainable development planning, it is important to identify the factors affecting it.This study investigates the relationship between innovation, entrepreneurship and sustainable development, and the hypothesis that entrepreneurship has a positive impact on sustainable development, is evaluated. In this study, the impact of innovation and entrepreneurship in sustainable development for the provinces of Iran during the period from 1385 to 1390 was analyzed using panel data. The results show that the effect of entrepreneurship on sustainable development at the level of 90 percent is positive and significant. Innovation and value added of the industrial sector coefficients is not significant. Urbanization has a positive and significant impact on sustainable development and energy intensity has a significantly negative impact on sustainable development.