نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال هجدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 59، تابستان 1402)

Economic growth acceleration is one of the critical topics and a relatively new concept in macroeconomic studies, which has received less attention in research related to economic growth in Iran. Examining growth acceleration aims to find turning points in the country's economic performance. Since growth spurts are related to limited changes in policy reforms, examining the acceleration of economic growth helps policymakers adopt a short-term growth strategy. With a review of global experiences, the acceleration of growth experienced in most of the developing countries has been exhausted and is not reproduced in their economy and does not continue. Therefore, evaluating periods of acceleration and reversal of economic growth is very important. In this study, after determining the period of accelerations and reversals of economic growth in Iran during the years 1955-2019, the period of growth acceleration is analyzed under the Within-Effect and Shift-Effect, using the Modified Shift-Share method. The research results show that the only period of accelerated economic growth experienced in Iran during the investigated period happened in 1965. Also, in 1975 and 1985, Iran's economy experienced a reversal in economic growth and entered a period of deep recession. Second, the Modified Shift-Share method results show that in 2014, both positive structural changes and within-sector productivity positively created growth acceleration, and the resulting growth was fast and stable.

In recent years, many researchers have been interested in studying trade as a network. This is possible based on graph concept and using interconnected trade data . Despite sharing a common origin, the post-Soviet countries have taken different commercial routes due to different political, geographic, economic, and cultural factors. In this study, we identify the structural model of the post-Soviet country network and use it to examine the effects of Shanghai Cooperation Organization membership on trade relations.In this regard, the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) is used to estimate parameters related to network and non-network configurations and attributes.The findings of our study indicate that the ERGM model has the same network structure across different time periods (years 2019, 2017 and 2021) and that the coefficients associated with conventional configurations have the required significance at all times. The network is based on the configurations and Other variables, including variables related to node and edge attributes are less important while being significant. Also, membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a specific covariate is meaningful and important.Also, the results of the network survey indicate that the results of joining the unions should be considered as whole ,and considering it alone could be misleading.

Foreign trade and improving the quality of exports are among the strategies that have been considered to achieve higher economic development in many countries. A quick look at the theories of international trade shows that the general consensus of these theories is that trade causes the economic growth and development of countries and these positive effects can affect different aspects of people's lives. One of the important dimensions of economic and social development is the status of women and their benefit from the development process. For this reason, this research has investigated the effect of trade openness and export diversification, as two important components of trade and its structure, on the gender development index. Considering North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) region and statistical information between 1995 and 2021 in the framework of the panel data regression model, this research shows that trade openness and export diversification have a positive and significant effect on the gender development index and its sub-indices. So that in the group of countries studied, a one percent increase in the trade openness has improved gender development by 0.015 percent and a one percent increase in export diversification has improved gender development by 0.034 percent.

In recent years, Iran's economy has experienced stagflation, low inflation rates or low unemployment rates at the cost of a considerable increase in the other. Government seeks to find ways to repress and manipulate markets to lower its debt financing costs. In this field, financial repression will provide very important policy implications for Iran's economy, which will make it possible for the country's macroeconomic policymakers to target inflation and unemployment rates. Based on this, this paper investigates the effect of financial repression on the causal relationship between inflation and unemployment using the bivariate and multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) between inflation and unemployment, taking into account the financial repression index (exchange rate and interest rate) in the period from 1987 to 2020. The findings show that despite the existence of a strong long-term two-way causal relationship between inflation and unemployment in the bivariate causality test, there is no significant causal relationship between inflation and unemployment in Iran in the presence of the indicators of financial repression. These findings indicate the absence of inflation-unemployment trade-off in Iran and support that this trade-off is not behavioral and is completely influenced by the government's interventions in the economy.

High poverty rates limit people's ability to meet their daily needs. Therefore, it has attracted the attention of policymakers and governments. In this study, unlike previous studies, the effect of poverty on financial development has been investigated. In addition, the current research seeks to answer the question of whether the poverty on financial development depends on the level of trade openness of countries. To achieve the aforementioned goals, a threshold panel model has been used for 25 developing countries from 2002 to 2020, and also to avoid the endogeneity problem, the 2SLS method and the use of instrumental variables have been used. The results indicate that as long as the degree of commercial openness is less than 65%, the increase in poverty causes a sharper decrease in financial development in the economy, and when the degree of openness is greater than 65%, the increase in poverty causes a smaller decrease in financial development. Because in the conditions of openness, the bottlenecks caused by poverty can be compensated by increasing the degree of openness and financial opportunities of an open economy. In other words, increasing the degree of openness of the economy reduces the limiting effects of poverty on financial development. Also, the model estimation results show that the logarithm of per capita income, savings and population density have positive and significant effects on financial development.

With the emergence of Global Value Chains and the participation of countries in these chains, new discussions of industrial policy were formed. One of the main tools of industrial policy that leads to the presence and participation in GVCs is the adoption of science, technology and innovation policies. Based on the studies, product complexity, technology absorption and research and development activities indicators are among the most important indicators related to this policy. Examining the adoption of this policy on participation in GVCs in the framework of the GMM is one of the main goals of this article. To estimate the model, panel data for the years 2008-2020, a sample of 161 countries, has been used by the method of generalized moments. The results show that the adoption of science, technology and innovation policies in the framework of industrial policies increases the participation of countries in GVCs. Therefore, based on the results of the research, it is necessary for countries, while prioritizing their development programs to increase participation and stabilization in GVCs, through the integration of science, technology and innovation policy to research and development activities, absorption of technology and product complexity. In addition, incentive policies such as investing in research and development, resource allocation and creating mechanisms for the development of technology absorption in the agenda of their programs.