فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال دهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 37، تابستان 1402)

This article examines the intergenerational loss of current budget operation balance deficit on Iran's economic growth using time series quarterly data during the period of 1369:1-1397:4 (based on the latest quarterly data published in 1401). For this purpose, the Bayesian autoregressive model (BVAR) was used. In Iran's economy, in order to finance the accumulation of current budget debt, the government reduces the assets of the future generation to maintain the welfare level of the current generation and causes a decrease in welfare of the future generation, which is referred to as an intergenerational loss of turning oil and gas assets into current costs. Based on the results, the accumulation of debt caused by the current budget deficit has a negative effect on private sector investment and economic growth. In addition, the intergenerational loss of the current budget has a positive effect on private sector investment, as well as it has negative effect in the short term and a positive effect on economic growth in the long term. In other words, if the oil and gas revenues are allocated for productive investment, it will not only reduce the accumulation of current budget debt, but also increase sustainable economic growth in the long run

The relationship between credit and economic growth is one of the issues discussed by economists and recent studies have shown that the relationship between credit and economic growth can be nonlinear. The aim of this study was to investigate the nonlinear Granger causality between the credit variable (which is the most important criterion for financial development) and the economic growth variable. For this purpose, Granger causality in the form of MSVAR model and seasonal data in the period 1383: 1 to 1398: 4 have been used. The results show a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and validity and MSVAR model has better explanatory power than its linear competitor (VAR model). According to this study, in regime one (which corresponds to periods of positive economic growth and high credit growth), causality exists only in terms of economic growth to credit, and in regime two (which corresponds to periods of economic growth and low credit growth) Causality is from credit to economic growth. In other words, in periods of prosperity, an increase in credit cannot significantly boost economic growth, and due to credit constraints in bad economic conditions, an increase in credit can affect economic growth

Liquidity risk is caused by the inability of a bank to pay debts on time, fulfil obligations, or the inability to expand the portfolio of high-yielding assets at a conventional cost. In other words, when a bank does not have sufficient liquidity, it is not able to obtain sufficient funds quickly and at a reasonable cost by increasing debts or converting assets, which will affect the bank's profitability. It can be said that the main cause of liquidity risk in banks is the mismatch between the amount and maturity of debts and assets, resulting in a negative liquidity gap. In this regard, institutions and banks used different approaches, including the approaches of the Wing Committee, to assess liquidity risk. This research aims to review liquidity risk management in the banking industry. In this research, content analysis of previous research has been done using the meta- Synthesis method and Sandelowski and Barroso's seven-stage model. Using the meta-Synthesis method, 242 related research between 2000 and 2023 were extracted from reliable scientific databases. For this purpose, after analyzing the research, 41 researchers have been selected. This research has provided a comprehensive framework for better risk management in the banking industry. This framework includes 5 main categories, which are liquidity risk data, liquidity risk factors, liquidity risk assessment, liquidity risk guidelines and liquidity risk management, 12 subcategories, 104 concepts and 175 codes. The results of this research can be a basis for better use of liquidity risk management in the banking industry. Also, the results were confirmed based on the opinion of experts with a Kappa index of 0.738

The household and its choices and decisions as a micro institution have a significant effect on all aspects of the macro economy. This important institution is facing risks and harmful issues, the ability to deal with them, in addition to affecting the well-being of family members, can also affect the macroeconomic situation. The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of positive and negative shocks on the household risk preparation on per capita growth in a selection of OPEC member countries during the period of 2002-2021. So ,the household risk preparation index was created by following Foa (2014) by considering four main components including household access to financial resources, social support, human capital and the economic capacity of the government with the PCA method for selected countries. Then the effect of positive and negative shocks of the mentioned index on per capita growth was estimated using the NARDL method. Findings show in each period, 50.3% of short-term imbalances have moved towards the long-term trend, so that in the long-term, shocks of the household risk preparation are asymmetric and positive (negative) shocks have a positive (negative) effect on the per capita growth of selected countries

One of the barriers to people's health is following past behaviors and not changing habits based on past and current preferences and ignoring the future. Therefore, the main purpose of the present study is to investigate factor analysis of health biases related to people using behavioral economics approach. For this purpose, the data of the present study was collected through a questionnaire developed by the researcher and convenience sampling from faculty members and staff of Ilam University. The initial reliability of the questions related to health biases was measured based on the Cronbach's alpha criterion, and the result was 0.77. The results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis showed that eight dimensions of health biases are important reflections of people's biased beliefs during daily decisions regarding nutrition, physical activity, treatment, treatment cost and treatment period. Exploratory factor analysis showed that 8 factors explain about 72.55% of the changes in health biases. Also, the examination of the fit indices of the confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the eight-factor model has a good fit with the data. . People's health biases in the form of 8 main dimensions were named as follows:  impatience in nutrition, oversimplification in nutrition, presentism in physical activity, ignoring the cost of staying healthy, willingness to pay for immediate treatment, procrastination in emotional treatment, naivety about the treatment period and indiscretion in treatment. The results of the present study can help health activists (researchers, decision-makers, planners, etc.) to explain the biases of behavioral economics to informing new concepts of health

Banking facilities distortions lead to suboptimal allocation of financial resources and impact various sectors of the economy. In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specifically a New Keynesian model, is designed for the Iranian economy, considering two scenarios: the presence and absence of banking facilities distortions. The model is calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation methods with the DYNARE software. The parameter values are calibrated to accurately reflect the main characteristics of the Iranian economy during the period of 1991-2021. The main objective is to examine the effects of major economic shocks on the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables under these two scenarios. The studied shocks include monetary shock, investment shock, wage mark-up shock, and government expenditure shock, which are considered as the sources of economic fluctuations in Iran. The simulation results of the effects of the monetary policy shock indicate that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions in the first scenario, the effectiveness of this shock increases, indicating an increased effectiveness of monetary policy in mitigating economic fluctuations. The results also show that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions, the economy tends to return to equilibrium faster after experiencing negative investment shocks or wage mark-up shocks, implying a reduction in the impact of these shocks. The simulation results of the effects of government expenditure shocks also demonstrate that, assuming the absence of banking facilities distortions, the effectiveness of this shock increases

Decreased growth and economic stagnation are among the consequences and costs of economic populism. Petro-populism is a phenomenon that appears in governments that rely on oil. Such governments try to attract the support of the masses by relying on oil income. Considering that symbols of populism have appeared in Iran in recent decades, two goals have been pursued in this research. First, based on the literature on populism, economic populism, and Petro-populism, eight indicators for oil populism have been proposed. The results of the calculations of the eight indicators for Iran during the period of 1978-2018 show that for the period of the ninth and tenth governments (2005-2013), the six suggested indicators of  Petro-populism have the highest values. To calculate the general petro-populism index, the geometric mean of the above eight indices was proposed and calculated during the mentioned period. The findings of the research show that in 2009, this index has the highest value compared to the length of the studied period. After it became clear that the rule of economic populism was more obvious in Iran during the years 2005-2013, the synthetic control method was used to evaluate the populist policies on Iran's economic growth during the mentioned period. Iran was selected as the country under treatment or policy and 13 oil exporting countries as the control group. The results of the research show that the real and simulated trends of Iran's economic growth from 2005 onwards have a significant difference

The aim of the current research is to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and Fisher's theory in Iran's economy using seasonal data during the period of 1370-1400 based on the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model using the variables of monetary policy, interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate and production. GDP has been estimated by the model. According to the results obtained from the variables of the current research, no significant relationship has been obtained between the monetary impulse and the interest rate in the long term, either in a positive or negative direction, the result obtained with Fisher's rule that between inflation and the real interest rate in In the long term, there is no relationship, it is aligned and in the same direction, so it can be said that in the long term, Fisher's rule is valid in Iran. Based on the results of the research, it is suggested that politicians should avoid monetary policy with the aim of influencing the interest rate and increasing production. Also, the central bank policymakers should create a logical balance between the real interest rate and economic growth by bringing the interest rate of the facilities granted to different sectors closer to each other and reducing the interest rate of the commercial sector