فصلنامه مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 16 (تابستان 1402)

Occasional unrest in the southwestern regions of Iran, especially Khuzestan and Arab-inhabited regions, requires more attention to the issues and developments in this region. In order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation, ethnic opportunities and challenges. The purpose of this research is to identify the key variables and drivers influencing the ethnic future of the Islamic Republic of Iran, taking into account the southwest border points of the country. The future study of factors affecting national security has always been the concern of the rulers and strategists of every political system, because national security is the primary condition and of course the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. The future is something that governments can design and shape with their targeted actions. In order to act wisely, they must have sufficient knowledge and understanding of the consequences of their actions and those of others. Also, check the reactions of others and forces that are beyond their control. These consequences will only show themselves in the future in the form of opportunities, threats and damage. According to the above-mentioned contents, the terrorist attack in Ahvaz on September 31, 2017, the attack on the police station in 2018, the unrest in 2018, and similar actions cannot be considered unrelated to ethnic divergence in this region. Based on this, in order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years and design appropriate security scenarios, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and identify ethnic opportunities and challenges, and in this research, we try to identify trends, drivers and uncertainties. , draw the possible scenarios regarding the Arab people using future research methods that will be explained below.
This research is practical in terms of its nature and purpose, descriptive-survey in terms of method, and exploratory due to the future-oriented nature of the research. In foresight projects, a set of techniques are used that often complement each other and the outputs of each form the inputs of the next technique. For this purpose, to carry out the research, effective factors in the field of Arab ethnocentrism were identified and the list of factors influencing the future research of Arab ethnocentrism in the form of a matrix questionnaire was provided to 15 experts using the environmental monitoring method and review of specialist studies in this field. The experts of this research include professors and experts of security, political and social sciences specializing in the issues of the Arab people. The variables and key drivers obtained by the cross matrix method and using the MikMak software were classified and again provided to the experts. The opinions of the experts were analyzed using Scenario Wizard software, and finally, possible and compatible scenarios were identified and extracted.
Among the 28 variables examined in this research, 7 key variables were identified. As can be seen in table number 4, there are two variables in the economic driver (massive oil and gas reserves and underdevelopment), in the cultural driver there is no variable, in the social driver there is one variable (the presence of micro dust) and in the political driver there are four variables (supports Saudi Arabia and the UAE were identified as opponents, the 8-year imposed war, the activities of the Wahhabi movement and regional rivalries. The findings of this research showed that seven variables of huge oil and gas reserves, underdevelopment, support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the opposition, imposed eight-year war, the activity of the Wahhabi movement, the presence of small dust and regional rivalries as key variables extracted from the software. Mic Mac software creates the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of the Arab people.
The results show that 6 challenging scenarios with compatibility and high scores are facing the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran, among which 1 very strong and probable scenario and 5 weak scenarios were obtained. The very strong scenario obtained is the scenario of continuation of the existing trend. The decrease in oil production, the economic problems of the country and the darkening of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the things that can lead the future situation of the Arab people in Khuzestan from creating opportunities to creating threats related to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results obtained from the Scenario Wizard software also show that although the strong scenario obtained is the continuation of the existing trend, but by looking at other scenarios, it can be concluded that other possible scenarios will lead to the continuation of the existing trend towards a relatively critical to critical situation. have found and this issue is an alarm for decision makers in the field of national security. In the meantime, one should not ignore the surprises of the instruments and the uncertainties. Corona disease, as one of the most important current uncertainties, has messed up all the economic and social equations of the countries and has led to the negative growth of the global economy. Iran is not exempted from this issue and the corona disease has had a great impact on its economic situation. Therefore, by taking appropriate decisions, relatively critical and critical scenarios should be prevented.

The Persian Gulf has created a kind of security interdependence between countries and regional players. The Persian Gulf is one of the most important regions in the world from a geostrategic and geoeconomic point of view, which can be considered as a regional security complex. In the sense that various factors have created a kind of security interdependence between countries and regional actors. Therefore, this research seeks to achieve a practical goal through the study of different theories of common security and security in Islam and the approach of culture in the Persian Gulf. Since the work of policymaking is to organize affairs and security policymaking is considered as a vital and basic necessity for governments, this research after examining the approaches, authorities and drivers of security policymaking in the Persian Gulf region aims to provide a security model based on common security. , security in Islam and the approach of culture in order to transition from national security to human security in this region, which is carried out quantitatively on experts, managers, experts, activists in the field of security in 1401.
This research aims to present a security model based on common security and a strategic culture approach in order to transition from national security to human security in the region, which was conducted quantitatively on experts, managers, experts and activists in the field of security in 1401. The research question is, what is the relationship between Iran's strategies and the approach of strategic culture and common security in the Persian Gulf? This research was conducted based on quantitative and qualitative research methods and descriptive analysis of correlation method; In this way, the research was conducted using questionnaires and interviews about the regional security system. In this research, the structural equation model (SEM) was used to develop the model. The findings of the study showed that common security has an effect on the realization pattern of Persian Gulf security. The path coefficient between two variables is 0.42, which has a significance level of 25.36, which is desirable because it is greater than 1.96, so the existence of a significant effect is confirmed. Also, the study showed that the theory of strategic culture approach has an effect on the realization pattern of Persian Gulf security. The path coefficient between the two variables is 0.68, which has a significance level of 16.745, which is desirable because it is greater than 1.96, so the existence of a significant effect is confirmed.
Since the goal of providing a security model with an emphasis on the common is security in Islam and culture, it is practical in terms of its purpose and descriptive and analytical in terms of its approach, and its results are clear and objective, and its results are in meeting needs and solving problems. and its application in solving specific problems in the organization, society, etc. is. It is also small in terms of information gathering. According to the type of study, the statistical population of the research includes experts, managers, experts, activists in the field of security in 1401. The number of these people was estimated to be about 500 people. Based on Morgan's table, for a community of 500 people, the number of samples is 217 people, which was carried out on 217 people in this study. The current research is a survey data collection method, which means that the present study is a descriptive survey and is discussed and investigated by reviewing scientific sources and theories in the field of research and comparing them, conducting an interview and designing a researcher-made questionnaire based on the results of the interview. In order to collect and analyze the data and information required for this research, various methods and tools have been used, which are described below according to the different needs of the research model. To collect information related to theoretical foundations, library research and study of various books and articles and scientific sites have been used. The main tool for collecting information in this research is a questionnaire, and a researcher-made questionnaire based on theoretical principles will be used to develop the questionnaire, so that the components extracted from the interviews will be evaluated, and the answers will be designed as a five-item Likert scale. In this research, the structural equation model (SEM) was used to develop the model.
The findings showed that there is a significant relationship between common security and the security of the Persian Gulf. The path coefficient of this relationship was found to be 0.717. To evaluate the significance of this effect, one should refer to the significant number of t-Value, which is 2.269, which is more than 1.96, and also the P-Value is 0.000. The findings also showed that there is a significant relationship between the approach of strategic culture and the security of the Persian Gulf. The path coefficient of this relationship was found to be 0.68. To evaluate the significance of this effect, one should refer to the significant number of t-Value, which is 2.949, which is more than 1.96, and P-Value is 0.022. Also, there is a significant connection between security in Islam and the security of the Persian Gulf. The path coefficient of this relationship was 0.529. To evaluate the significance of this effect, one should refer to the significant number of t-Value, which is 2.456, which is more than 1.96, and the P-Value is 0.000. Therefore, the desired hypothesis is confirmed at the 95% confidence level and there is a significant relationship between security in Islam and the security of the Persian Gulf.
There is a significant relationship between common security, security in Islam, the approach of strategic culture and the security of the Persian Gulf.

Non-democratic Politics, brutality of politics, stable presence of military forces in the eco-political life, institutionalization of authoritarianism, detachment of ideological and strategic thoughts, the descriptive function of democracy in the Egyptian political history had turned politics as the exclusive prerogative of political sovereignty and military forces. By discourse of anti-otherness, attempting to monopolize the politics, and considering the democratizing movements as an action vacating the spoiled fervors of collective actions, this kind of governance prevented to transition to democracy. Affecting by the power structure and the behaviors of the main policymakers on the one hand, and the ceaseless cycle of populist authoritarianism, pseudo-democracy, and neo-authoritarianism on the other hand, the failed democratic experience, and fluctuation of transition to democracy in Egypt is regarded as the triumph of the structure against the agency. Thus, the main question of the current paper is to study why the process of transition to democracy was unsuccessful in Egypt? According to the main hypothesis, policymaking and governance in Egypt are based on undemocratic liberalism. In other words, despite rising the pseudo-liberal creeds in different periods, Egypt has never experienced an institutionalized democratic political life. So, by the logic of historical sociology and the theory of transition to democracy, this paper will test the mentioned hypothesis analytically. By showing up the cycle of populist authoritarianism, quasi-authoritarianism, pseudo-democracy, and neo-authoritarianism in Egypt, the findings show that alienation with democratic values, institutionalized authoritarian values, and lack of democratic culture in the political life of Egypt led to the failure of democratization movements.
As the most populous country in the Middle East subsystem and the third most populous country in the Black Continent, Egypt is one of the main candidates for the transition to democracy. Despite the suspension of political development and the geopolitical and geostrategic instability of the region, the desire for democracy and the effort to transition to a democratic political life is a social and sustainable demand in Egypt. From a historical point of view, despite the experience of democracy in Egypt, the lack of political participation of the people caused the fragility and instability of these movements until the 1980s. But with the transition to the third wave of democracy, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the gradual transition of Latin American and Eastern European countries to democracy, pro-democracy actions in Egypt were pursued more seriously. Studying the history of political and social developments in Egypt as a vanguard of the transition to native democracy is a sign of the emergence of an authoritarian structure and society, which seeks to lay the groundwork for the emergence of political pluralism and democracy by constantly trying to marginalize the hierarchical structure of power. In fact, the growth of social demands, political developments, the emergence of technological and cognitive processes, and the rising waves of globalization caused democracy to become one of the main demands of the Egyptian society. But such a demand is not a one-time thing, but has a hundred years of political history.
The first round of the transition to democracy in Egypt began with the country's independence in 1922, which continued until 1949 despite its fragility and instability. Colonialism, as the dominant logic on the African continent, made no country capable of transitioning to democracy. Now, during the constitutional monarchy of King Farouk in the years 1922 to 1949, Egypt was able to experience a quasi-democratic political system for the first time. Egypt experienced the second period of transition to democracy during the rule of Anwar Sadat. The emergence of various political forces, the support of Islamist organizations and forces, and the application of open-door liberal policies were considered as signs of Egypt's desire for democracy, which leads it to political development and social reforms. But the third period of the transition to democracy in Egypt can be seen as the result of the political and social developments of 2011, when the revolutionaries were trying to establish a new political plan for governance and politics. It is worth noting that neglecting the differences between different periods of transition to democracy in Egypt is a kind of cognitive reductionism.
One of the main differences between the third transition period and the previous two periods is the type of democratic and reformist social actors. In the sense that the main reformists and democrats in the first and second period were the political rulers and the main actors in the national power scene, while the main pro-democracy activists in the third period were the society and the people. Democracy and political reformism in the first and second periods were hierarchical and from top to bottom, in the third period it came from the bottom to the top. Unlike the first and second periods, democratization and reformism in the third period were derived from the cognitive equipping of society and the emergence of the third wave of knowledge due to the existence of social networks. Democracy in the first and second period did not necessarily change the structure of political power, while the rotation of political actors and the relative change in the ruling attitudes towards the society have been the reasons for the third period of transition. Despite these differences, fragility and instability are common features of different transition periods in Egypt. In such a way that after a short period of time, the movement for democracy and reformism was stopped. In this article, we want to pathologically examine the pro-democracy movements in Egypt from 1950 to 2020. This question is raised, why the transition to democracy in Egypt has failed? In response to this hypothesis, politics and governance in Egypt is based on undemocratic liberalism; In this way, despite the emergence of pseudo-liberal teachings in different periods, democratic political life was never institutionalized in Egypt. According to the hypothesis of the research, institutional cultural and traditional habits, unfamiliarity with democratic teachings and the institutionalization of authoritarian norms in Egypt caused closeness with some pseudo-liberal behaviors. These conditions, along with the lack of democratic biopolitical institutions, failed the transition to democracy.
In a summary, it should be said that the political and social developments in Egypt during the post-Mubarak era, especially after the inauguration of Muhammad Morsi, with the relative increase in the level of economic activity and the creation of a platform for the emergence of various political and social parties and forces, promised democracy in the new era. But the lack of strategic vision between the revolutionary coalition forces, the lack of serious commitment of the Islamist, liberal, secular and leftist forces to democratic teachings, seeking power as the main logic of the Islamists in the 2012 elections and tactical alliance with the military to win the election, increasing the political and economic privileges of the military by The ruling Islamists after the election victory, the cooperation of liberal and secular forces with the military in 2013 in criticizing the Islamists, the inability of the ruling political forces to connect strategic thoughts and ideological stances, the distance from democratic teachings and cultural habits ruling Egypt and the cooperation of transnational forces to support The presence of the military in the political and economic life of Egypt caused the transition to democracy to face many challenges in the current era. In other words, Egypt's failure to transition to democracy and the continuation of the cycle of authoritarianism and quasi-democracy is a strategy to control power and stabilize the political position of those in power.

The Syrian crisis has been one of the most complex international issues in the last decade, which has become a source of competition between regional and global powers due to the length of time and the number of effective actors. This country has been one of the strategic goals of foreign policy, on the one hand, as the most focal country of the axis of resistance for Iran, and on the other hand, as a strategic depth in Turkey's Ottomanism policy. In this article, within the framework of the theory of soft power, with a comparative approach, we want to answer the question that what are the commonalities and differences between the two countries of Iran and Turkey in the application of soft power to the Syrian crisis? In response to this hypothesis, the foundation of the soft power of the two countries based on different historical, religious and political values has caused similarities and contradictions in the use of soft power of the two countries after the Syrian crisis. Data from library and documentary sources have been collected and the challenges and opportunities of the two countries' soft power in relation to the Syrian crisis have been compared descriptively and analytically.
The emergence of a process called globalization has led to the emergence of new forms of power and, accordingly, new forms of security interactions. Investigating the nature of power in today's global politics has given birth to a concept called soft power and creating a place for it in international politics. Sources of soft power, unlike hard power which has a military and economic basis, are based on culture and thought. Of course, according to Joseph Nye, soft power is more than cultural power. Soft power relies on both the policy agenda setting method and the power of absorption (Nye, 2008: 151). The Islamic Revolution of Iran has been an effective phenomenon in the Middle East region due to its appeal in its slogans, goals, methods, content and common religious, historical, and regional and international conditions. This revolution caused a kind of Islamic awakening and revival based on the return to the ideology and school of Islam, and especially in the young generation, it created a kind of fascination and return to Islamic thoughts and ideas. An idea that believes that Islam has all human affairs to manage human affairs (Blanks, 1999: 88. Considering that culture is considered one of the most important sources of soft power and religion as the main manifestation of culture is one of the main foundations of the Islamic revolution, the republican system According to its ideological background and geopolitical and geostrategic position, Islamic Iran has huge aspects of soft power.
In Iran's neighborhood, the entry of Islamists into Turkey's political scene turned the country's politicians' eyes from Europe to the Middle East. Turkey correctly realized that decades of looking to the West and over-emphasis on Europe and America have led to a one-sided and unbalanced foreign policy for this country. For this reason, Turkey looked at Islamic countries and the West at the same time (Öztürk and Baser, 2022: 714). Due to Turkey's history, culture and many commonalities with Middle East countries, this country quickly became an active player in the regional arena, and Turkish politicians, by introducing themselves as a successful model of combining religion and democracy in the governance arena, put their efforts in increasing soft power and Its acceptability among the educated youth and the middle class in the Arab countries of the Middle East (Ismaili et al., 2016: 181).
Following the Arab Spring and the instability of the Arab governments, Takfiri groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, by occupying a large part of the Syrian territory and the severe weakness of the government of this country, brought Syria into a crisis that has continued to this day, and at the same time, most of the country's infrastructure has been destroyed. became. This crisis turned Syria into a field of conflict between big and regional powers, including Turkey and Iran, to gain regional influence and hegemony. This question is raised, what are the commonalities and differences between the two countries of Iran and Turkey in the use of soft power in the wake of the Syrian crisis? In response to this hypothesis, the foundation of the soft power of the two countries based on different historical, religious and political values has caused similarities and contradictions in the use of soft power of the two countries after the Syrian crisis. By comparing the opportunities and challenges of using soft power in combination with the hard power of two countries, we try to show which country's strategy in Syria was accompanied by relative success or failure.
 
It seems that Turkish politicians consider the developments in Syria as an opportunity to expand their influence, increase their role and ultimately, regional hegemony, but not using a principled approach in facing the Syrian crisis, incurring high costs and eroding the political and security crises in Syria, causes disruption of soft power. And the regional position of the Turkish government in the region has been degraded. On the other hand, field realities such as the stability and relative stability of the Syrian government after the country's crisis and the defeat of Takfiri groups show that Iran's approach to regional influence and maintaining strategic depth in Syria has strengthened Iran's position and increased its soft power.

Following the numerous crimes committed by the ISIS terrorist group in Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran rushed to help this country at the official request of the Iraqi government, and finally, the possessions of ISIS were liberated and this criminal group was suppressed. The purpose of this research is to examine Iran's support in the Iraq crisis after the emergence of ISIS with the three steps of the responsibility of support guide including prevention, intervention and reconstruction in an analytical and descriptive way. Examining the behavior pattern of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic in Iraq after the emergence of ISIS shows that although the prevention phase of the responsibility of protection guideline has not been fully implemented by the Islamic Republic of Iran, there is sufficient evidence of the implementation of intervention and reconstruction steps by the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the guideline of the responsibility of protection in Iraq. has it. Iran's presence in Iraq, along with national security justifications, has a human rights and human security aspect. Iran's confrontation with the ISIS terrorist group in Iraq, which has committed all the crimes under the responsibility of protection guidelines, is an example of the Islamic Republic of Iran's support for the oppressed and the oppressed, as stipulated in the Iranian constitution, and the application of human rights is a tool against human rights.
Iran's foreign policy after the victory of the Islamic Revolution has always been a mixture of ideological goals and national interests. Iran's Islamic Revolution brought about a fundamental change in Iran's political and cultural structure, which has always influenced foreign policy. The core of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to secure national interests in the light of preserving human life and dignity. Human dignity has a special place in Islamic teachings. The same humanitarian view can be observed in all foreign policy behaviors of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the beginning until now. Supporting the oppressed and liberation movements is complementary to de-arrogance and anti-oppression, so that there is a logical and functional connection between fighting against the oppressed and supporting the oppressed; Therefore, in parallel with the fight against arrogance and colonialism, the Islamic Republic considers itself obliged to support the oppressed of the world and the liberation movements that fight against the arrogant and colonialists. Article 154 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic states that "the Islamic Republic of Iran ... supports the rightful struggle of the oppressed against the arrogant in any part of the world
Humanitarian intervention in countries has a long history. During his tenure, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tried to develop a coherent framework for humanitarian intervention to support minorities and the oppressed around the world so that the world would no longer witness tragedies like Bosnia and Uganda. The result of these efforts is the adoption of the UN leaders in 2005, which became known as the Responsibility to Protect Directive, which states that whenever a country is unable or unwilling to defend its citizens against the four crimes of racial discrimination, war crimes, crimes against humanity and mass murder, the international community is obliged to Hasten to help the oppressed. After attacking Iraq and occupying a third of the country's territory, the ISIS terrorist group committed the four crimes under the responsibility of support guidelines, as evidenced by international organizations and the world's media. Considering the weakness of the Iraqi government in supporting the homeless people, this government sought help from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The military forces of our country also entered Iraq in the form of an advisory mission and helped the government. Many western politicians have considered the action of the Islamic Republic as a clear interference in the internal affairs of Iraq. However, according to the opinion of many other politicians, the Islamic Republic of Iran entered into a campaign with the sole aim of helping the Iraqi people, which had no other purpose than the responsibility of support.
This research has been carried out with the aim of adapting the support behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the government and people of Iraq after the emergence of ISIS and seeks to answer the question of how the logic and pattern of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding Iraq after the emergence of ISIS is based on the responsibility of support guidelines. And its triple steps including prevention, intervention and reconstruction can be explained? So far, all the researches about Iran's regional activities have been analyzed with a political, security and ideological approach, and the innovative aspect of this research is the examination of Iran's regional presence from the perspective of international law and human rights.
 
Iran's presence in Iraq, along with the humanitarian approach and human rights, has national security justifications for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has attracted the attention of researchers and thinkers, but Iran's approach to human security in the Iraq crisis stems from the Iranian constitution, which protects the oppressed against the aggressors. He knows the duty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Criticisms of Iran's presence in Iraq mostly refer to the interests of the superpowers, which are in conflict with the foreign policy and human security guidelines of the Islamic Republic of Iran. For this reason, over the past years, Iran has always been exposed to human rights accusations by international bodies affiliated with superpowers. Accusations that are mostly caused by cultural and social differences between Iran and the West. Despite all the differences of tastes and perceptions in the definition of human rights, the preservation of the lives of innocents and civilians as well as the survival of the human race is the common thread of all human rights theories and systems. The behavior of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic has a lot of capacity to show this foundation of human rights. The important point is that contrary to the famous saying "Religion is the opium of nations", it is the teachings of Islam that form the basis of this international behavior of Iran. The last word is that Iran's approach to human security in Iraq is an example of applying human-oriented human rights against benefit-oriented human rights. Human rights focus on dealing with human crimes not according to the nature of the crime, but on the basis of friendship or enmity with the perpetrators. Of course, it should be known that the future of human rights depends on a humane and non-discriminatory understanding of human dignity.

The region of Southwest Asia has been faced with new developments and dynamics in the last decades of the 21st century, and the identification of the developments created in this region promises the formation of a new order. This new order has actors who play a role in its formation. This research, with a future-oriented approach, seeks to identify the most important main factors and driving forces shaping the geometry of the modern order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. The type of research is applied with a mixed exploratory approach. Its statistical community purposefully includes 17 experts in the field of national security and international relations. With library studies and conducting interviews in the form of brainstorming and brainstorming sessions, 47 main factors were counted, which were categorized in two dimensions: the former main factors shaping the order in the Southwest Asia region and the current factors shaping the new order in the Southwest Asia region. In addition, 19 driving forces shaping the geometry of the new regional order were identified in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. Validation of the main factors through specific tests of SPSS software (single-sample t and Kendall's coefficient of agreement) and the most effective driving forces using Micmac software and interaction analysis matrix among the 19 driving forces identified, which include the Great Deal of the Century, the Russian-Ukrainian war, The New Silk Road, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the attempt to eliminate Iran from the Zangzor Pass, and the expansion of the ideology of resistance.
With the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, the victorious countries decided to divide this empire and annex the Ottoman possessions to their lands. This action took on an official aspect when the foreign ministers of the two colonial countries, England and France, signed an agreement known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which provided the political and geopolitical conditions for the division of the borders of the Ottoman Empire into several Arab countries and present-day Turkey. In this agreement, the Arab Middle East region was divided between the three countries of France, England and Russia. With the signing of this treaty, the eastern parts of Turkey joined Russia and France also colonized parts of Turkey along with areas of Syria and Lebanon. In the meantime, England acquired major parts of Iraq as well as Palestine. France and England agreed to turn their Middle Eastern possessions into numerous eminence lands (Kuehn, 2021).
With the division of the Ottoman Empire into several countries after the First World War by the victorious Western powers in the war, which led to the formation of the present-day nature of West Asia, this region has always faced many tensions and challenges, and the Western interventionist forces played a prominent role in these instabilities. As a strategic region, West Asia has always been subject to many tensions and challenges. Examining contemporary history shows that the root of these tensions should be sought in the two world wars and the developments after them. When the Western powers made fateful decisions without the presence of West Asian countries. After the victory of the Allied countries in the World War, these countries decided to divide and divide the Ottoman Empire, which was called the "sick man of Europe", in line with their interests. The Sykes-Picot Agreement, the Sour Agreement and the Balfour Declaration and the letters exchanged between McMahan and Sharif Hussein clearly reveal the goals of this colonial plan, which resulted in agreements that brought instability and insecurity to the region decades later.
During the Cold War, Southwest Asia had a special place in international relations for the United States. The rich oil reserves and the Soviet effort to penetrate into the West Asian region were the main reasons for its importance for this country. In the region of Southwest Asia, the actors were arranged in such a way that Saudi Arabia and Iran were inclined towards the Western bloc and America and Syria, Egypt and Iraq were inclined towards the Eastern bloc. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union pursued its foreign policy goals by supporting communist movements. This formed process created a conflict-seeking approach between these two superpowers, which, in addition to the rivalry between the countries of the region, turned these countries into suppliers of the goals, desires and ideals of these governments. The occurrence of the Islamic revolution in Iran and the atmosphere that prevailed in the region from this revolution created currents in the years after the revolution in the region of Southwest Asia and sometimes the world, which had many effects and consequences both for the countries of the Southwest Asia region and for the superpowers of the East and The West was looking for
In this research, with a future-oriented approach, we seek to identify and explain the main factors and effective drivers that shape the geometry of the modern order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. To achieve this goal, we are seeking answers to these three questions:- Which main factors and driving forces are the main factors and previous driving forces shaping the order in the region of Southwest Asia?
- What are the main factors and current driving forces shaping the new order in Southwest Asia?
- What main factors and driving forces have played an effective role in shaping the geometry of the new order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407?
 
In this research, with a future-oriented approach, we sought to identify and explain three categories of driving forces: the first category, the former driving forces that shaped the order in the Southwest Asia region, which include 24 main factors that make up the driving forces; The second category is the current driving forces shaping the new order in the Southwest Asia region. In this research, in this section, we identified the number of 23 main factors that make up the driving forces. The third category is related to the driving forces that are considered as the effective driving forces shaping the geometry of the new order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407, which are 19 driving forces. Regarding the third category, by using Mimak futurology software and the interaction analysis matrix, the most effective driving forces were also identified, which include the six driving forces of America's Great Deal of the Century, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the establishment of the New Silk Road, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the attempt to remove Iran from Zangzor was the way to spread the ideology of resistance. Considering that driving forces and main factors are vital and important parts of the scenario writing process, the following suggestions can be made:- In relation to future researches, a research topic about future scenarios of modern order geometry in South West Asia region can be a good topic to present.
Considering the identification and determination of three categories of driving forces in this research, their application and exploitation can develop the strategic depth of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region, Latin America and North Africa.
- The findings and consequences of this research can lead to preventing wrong analysis and going in the wrong direction.

In a strategic shock, the Taliban in Afghanistan entered Kabul on August 15, following a crisis caused by the Western military withdrawal, the reluctance of the Afghan government and national security forces to fight, and the Taliban's will for power. The early withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban will have important consequences for the region and international politics more broadly. The developments in Afghanistan with the influence of the Taliban on Afghanistan and the formation of a government by this group have become a matter of concern for the neighboring countries of this country. Iran, as one of Afghanistan's neighboring countries, adopted policies against the Taliban's control over Afghanistan and the formation of a government by this group. Afghanistan, as one of the eastern neighbors of Iran, which has a water and land border with Iran, is naturally a part of the Iranian plateau and has many similarities with Iran in terms of history and culture. The eastern borders of Iran are one of the most important two-way crossings of human, economic and cultural exchanges for the two countries. In terms of geopolitics, in the eastern borders of Iran, respectable Baloch people live, whose relatives are also present in the two countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan, who are always provoked by elements related to foreign intelligence and espionage services for various ethnic and religious reasons. Also, over the years, these borders have been one of the most important security challenges regarding human and drug trafficking. More than millions of Afghans have tasted the problems of these borders in the last four decades; The recent one-year developments in Afghanistan and the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan's chess scene have also caused many Afghans to flock to Iran's borders, which continues.
The Taliban regained power in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of American forces following the capture of Kabul, the capital of this country, and caused the Islamic Republic of Iran to face some contradictions in facing its eastern neighbors. Iran is not clear-cut, it looks at what is happening as a threat and doubts and does not consider the existence of conspiracy in all developments far from mind. This article collected data using qualitative method and in the framework of aggressive realism, and thematic analysis technique was used to extract the content. This article was formed with the aim of identifying the approach of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Taliban's re-establishment of power and seeks to answer the question, what approach has the Islamic Republic of Iran adopted towards the Afghan Taliban? Also, the authors will examine this hypothesis by stating that the early withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban has once again changed the turbulent conditions of the Middle East and its geopolitical equations and led to an impact on Iran's interests. and on the other hand, the Taliban, as an extremist Sunni group, is still considered a threat to Iran's national security from the ideological point of view. The results of the research show that based on Iran's position and sensitive role in the region, Iran's positions will be different with regard to the Taliban's approach.
According to the nature of the subject and in order to answer the question in this research, the descriptive-analytical method has been used. In the descriptive-analytical method, the researcher, in addition to revealing what is, describes and explains the whys and hows of the problem and its forms. The method and tool of collecting information and data is in the form of documents in which the researcher has collected the required information using reliable sources or interviews with experts and experts in this field.    
The findings of the article show that Iran's positions will be different according to the Taliban's approach. If the Taliban moves towards the distribution of power and includes other ethnic groups, especially the Shiites and Turkic-speaking people, in the structure of the government, considering that Iran ideologically has a lot in common with the Shiites and Hazaras of Afghanistan, and all these issues are in favor of Iran. is, the goal of the Taliban can be aligned with the interest of the Islamic Republic of Iran. But if the Taliban's approach is based on the monopoly of power, considering that the ideology of this group is different from Iran and they are closer to Saudi Arabia, it seems that the relations between Iran and the Taliban will not be friendly.
The Taliban is an ultra-conservative political and religious faction that emerged with the withdrawal of Soviet forces and the collapse of the communist regime in Afghanistan. This group, which was founded by Mullah Muhammad Omar in the southern part of Afghanistan, centered on the Pashtun people. The Taliban, with their religious and extremist ideology, took drastic measures. In August 2021, the Taliban was able to start a massive advance with the withdrawal of American forces, and it was a good opportunity for the Taliban in Afghanistan to dominate the whole of Afghanistan in a short time. On the one hand, the unfavorable political-security situation, economic crisis, social issues, extreme ideology as internal factors, and on the other hand, the decisions and actions of international powers, including the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, as external factors in the formation of the phenomenon of Talibanism. Afghanistan has been effective and has enabled the Taliban to quickly advance inside Afghanistan and take control of the capital and force the previous government to flee and become the undisputed ruler of Afghanistan. Considering that the situation in Afghanistan has been messed up for many years. These disturbances can be a threat to the countries of the region, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran. With this consideration, the dimensions and security issues that have arisen against the Islamic Republic of Iran have caused Iran to deal with Afghanistan with a tactical approach with the aim of managing and repelling threats in its foreign policy.

Due to its special geopolitical and geostrategic position, Yemen has always been the subject of interference by regional and extra-regional powers. Bringing Yemen in a crisis, the formation of the Arab uprisings and then the intervention of regional and international powers turned this country into a domestic and foreign battlefield. This article seeks to answer the question of what geopolitical interests four important regional actors, namely the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Zionist regime, pursue in the Yemen crisis. The findings of the research show that despite the political and ideological motivations of all these actors, most of their basic goals in this crisis are aimed at the geopolitical and geostrategic advantages of Yemen.
In addition to its ideological goals of helping the oppressed, Iran views this crisis as an arena for expanding the geopolitical depth of the axis of resistance. And, as the most important regional actor involved in the Yemen crisis, Saudi Arabia sees this country essential to advance its regional and international ambitions, as well as to draw a veil over its geopolitical problems. The United Arab Emirates, which has based its foreign policy on sea and strait diplomacy, considers Yemen's geopolitics as the backbone of its policies in order to play a more effective role in the region, and the Zionist regime, which is known as one of the beneficiary political actors in the Red Sea, considers the geopolitical position of Yemen important for providing shipping security and improving its deterrence power against the resistance front.
With the emergence (occurrence) of the Arab uprisings, Yemen, like previous decades, suffered internal crisis and chaos and; as a result, many regional and extra-regional actors entered this crisis in order to benefit from Yemen's geopolitical gifts.
Due to its unique geopolitical and geostrategic position, Yemen is significant for regional and trans-regional actors; therefore, each of the regional powers, especially the four main influential actors in the Yemen crisis, i.e. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Zionist regime, consider some interests for themselves in this country. Despite the political, economic, ideological and military interests, the biggest factor that has drawn these actors towards Yemen crisis is the geopolitical and geostrategic advantages of this country which include political, economic and other advantages.
In addition to political and ideological interests, the Yemen crisis and the promotion of Ansarullah from a sub-national to a national and even regional power have had geopolitical benefits for Tehran.
having not very peaceful relations with Iran during the era of Ali Abdullah Saleh and Mansour Hadi, yemen, with the outbreak of its crisis and the presence of Ansarullah in this country, was added to the circle of Iranian friends in the region and expanded the strategic depth of Iran to the Red Sea and the strategic strait of Bab al-Mandab.
With such an opportunity, in addition to prompting the geopolitical weight of the axis of resistance and itself, Iran can increase its deterrenc power against its most important regional enemy, the Zionist regime, and its most important regional rival, Saudi Arabia.  Iran can also prevent the political, military and economic strategies of the West, especially the United States, to isolate Iran and exclude it from the transit corridors.  The result of such developments can be an increase in Iran's national security factor.
The second and probably the most important foreign actor involved in the Yemen crisis is Saudi Arabia. The Yemen crisis, in general, imposed many political, economic, military and geopolitical costs on Saudi Arabia, because with the occurrence of Islamic awakening and the emergence of such actors as Ansarullah, Riyadh's influence in Sana'a was reduced and this country faced many challenges. However, the geopolitical interests of Saudi Arabia, such as reducing the geopolitical risk of Yemen for Riyadh, the connection with the high seas through the control of Yemen's strategic ports, as well as the stability of the Arabian Peninsula in order to continue its ambitious approaches at the regional and international levels, led Riyadh to maximize its presence in the Yemen crisis.
The third regional actor involved in the Yemen crisis is the United Arab Emirates, whose interests in Yemen can be considered completely geopolitical. With its maritime and strait diplomacy, the UAE seeks to dominate the international waterways and ports and strategic islands of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and by the way, the Yemen crisis made this strategy of the UAE a reality. During the last decade, the UAE has been able to make capital investments in many ports and islands in the south of Yemen and to have a significant military presence there.
Therefore, the interests of the UAE, unlike Saudi Arabia, are the division of Yemen and the support of the Southern Transitional Council in order to guarantee its decisive influence in the south of Yemen and the geostrategic regions of this country and achieve its ambitious goals in order to become the economic and tourism hub of the Middle East.
The fourth influential but shadowy regional actor in the Yemen crisis is the Zionist regime. The regime , which has experienced the loss of access to the Red Sea in the 1973 war (Yom Kippur), knows that the loss of the Red Sea can endanger its foundation.
Therefore, the developments of all the countries of the Red Sea and especially Yemen, which owns the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb in addition to being located in the Red Sea, is important for the Zionist regime.
The Yemen crisis is important for the Zionist regime since it has been  able to bring together reactionary Arab countries and the Jewish state and also to advance the balkanization of the Middle East one step further.
But the most important benefit of the Zionist regime from the crisis in Yemen can be seen in the connection of this regime with the Southern Transitional Council and its hidden presence in the south of Yemen and the strategic islands of this country, creating many opportunities for.
However, the emergence of Ansarullah is the most important challenge for the Zionist regime in the Yemen crisis, which can not only neutralize all these political and geopolitical opportunities resulting from the crisis, but also creates numerous threats to the regime in the Red Sea.