نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال یازدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 22، پاییز و زمستان 1401)

The city is a dense human habitat that requires security and security in all physical, social, economic, cultural and other aspects due to human presence. The purpose of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of the degraded texture of the Port of Mahshahr from the standpoint of passive defense using hierarchical fuzzy method. The present paper is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. Accordingly, Delphi method was used to identify vulnerable elements of the city against military invasions and hazards. The experts of this study were 20 experts of urban affairs from the personnel of 7 important organizations in this field (governor's office, municipality, Red Crescent, law enforcement, Basij and IRGC, and according to experts' opinion, finally 6 indicators and 15 Criteria were selected to measure the vulnerability of the study area. In the next step, data layers and indices were prepared in Arc / Map 10.2 environment and finally, using the fuzzy hierarchy method, the vulnerability zoning map was prepared in three high, medium, and low risk zones. The widespread Mahshahr Port is observed to have high vulnerability distribution in all areas, accounting for about 27.2% of the total area. Eighty-five percent of the areas with moderate vulnerability and the rest of the area with low vulnerability were allocated to these areas with more open spaces but more open spaces and new buildings.

Natural disasters such as earthquakes can cause irreparable damage to humans and the environment. Earthquakes are considered as natural disasters that cause many human and financial losses every year. Today, with the advancement of science and technology, suitable grounds have been provided for recognizing and reducing these natural hazards. Therefore, risk assessment is critical for proper management and reduction of losses. Risk assessment is determined by the process of estimating the probability of an event occurring, and the importance or severity of its adverse effects. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability of Bushehr province to earthquake risk. In this regard, by combining fuzzy and hierarchical logic models using GIS software, the vulnerability of Bushehr province to earthquake risk has been analyzed and extracted. Effective indicators in earthquake vulnerability are: distance from the fault, earthquake epicenter, earthquake magnitude, earthquake depth, land slope and lithology. The results show that 23% of Bushehr province, which is mostly located along faults, are very vulnerable in the danger zone.

National security refers to the requirements (soft or hard measures) that maintain the survival of the national government through the use of economic power, the military and political power, and the use of diplomatic means. The leading article is the result of research on the relationship between political rumor management in social networks and the promotion of national security. The research is methodical, descriptive-analytical and field data collection and survey method. The study population of this dissertation includes experts in the field of security and engineering in social networks and people active in this field who have used the snow globe method to determine their number after the interview and distribution of the questionnaire. In the present study, SPSS software is used to identify and analyze (using descriptive and inferential statistics) and also the Hierarchical Analysis Process (AHP) in Super Decisions software is used to rank the research factors. The results of the study according to the final analysis based on AHP, showed that demotivation (D) "with a weight of" 0.4673 "and" neutralization (C) "with a weight of" 0.27718 "as the most important criteria of the proposed model, had the greatest impact on improving national security. On the subject of controlling political rumors on social networks.

Firefighting services must provide a high rate of relief to ensure public safety. These rescue services are usually provided by vehicles stationed at fire stations. One of the most important issues in this regard is the location of these stations in the metropolitan area, so that they have the highest impact for emergency relief. To prioritize the five districts of Rasht to create or add new fire stations, five indices: area size, population, traffic, land usage and risk capability were considered as decision indicators. The statistical population for sampling was firefighters in Rasht. One station from each district and two firefighters from each district (10 firefighters in total) were selected as samples. The Questionnaire was used for data collection. Fuzzy AHP multi-criteria decision making method was used to rank areas of Rasht city. According to the results, the fourth zone with equal weight (0.305), first zone (0.210), fifth zone (0.174), third zone (0.173) and the second zone (0.136) were prioritized for construction of the new station, respectively.

Given that various natural crises are often unexpected and surprising in nature and the need for inter-organizational coordination to manage these crises, the purpose of this study was to examine the views of 140 people in the statistical community on the factors affecting inter-organizational coordination. Crisis-related organizations and the study of the impact of inter-organizational coordination on crisis management in natural disasters. In this study, partial stratified random sampling method was used. This research is a survey in terms of practical purpose and in terms of data collection method and is of correlation type. According to the research background, first after drawing the conceptual model of the research, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed and after obtaining the necessary reliability and validity, data were collected. After describing the questions with SPSS software, the research hypothesis test was performed according to the method of structural equations and factor analysis using Piels software. After performing statistical tests, it was found that informal relationships, the main factors of coordination and informal relationships have an effect on inter-organizational coordination. Informal relations with 76% have the greatest impact on inter-organizational coordination in the provincial crisis management headquarters. The effect of inter-organizational coordination on the elements of crisis management was also significant. The most effective inter-organizational coordination on the elements of crisis management on the stages of crisis management (0.55), crisis forecasting (0.54), crisis preparedness (0.45) and crisis recovery (0.01).

Acceleration of industrial development, especially in developing countries, has led to an increase in the transportation of hazardous materials and, consequently, an increase in hazards and accidents, which are sometimes combined with critical conditions that complicate the situation and The risk management process becomes more difficult. The purpose of this paper is to provide a model that is easy to use and comprehensive enough to identify and accurately assess the components of risk management in complex critical situations. This model consisted of four steps of identification, analysis, evaluation and control and used tools such as system dynamics and fuzzy AHP and was implemented in a hydrazine transport sample in war conditions. In the identification stage, 8 criteria and 46 sub-criteria were identified. In the risk assessment phase, the limitations of dealing with crisis situations were considered in determining acceptable limits. In the risk analysis stage, while introducing decision factors in crisis situations, criteria and sub-criteria were weighted with fuzzy AHP, it was found that population density and defense facilities are the most important in the risk of transporting hazardous materials, followed by driver-related sub-criteria. Finally, while presenting risk control planning, ways to reduce risk to an acceptable level were examined. At this stage, the effectiveness of each sub-criterion of total risk was calculated and taken into account

After an earthquake, people are seeking for useful information about the mainshock and its possible aftershocks, and the vulnerability of their buildings to any future shakings. Actually, safety assessment of buildings after an earthquake is very costly and time-consuming, and lack of an interactive system between public and authorities for post-earthquake crisis management, especially in metropolitans, is a major challenge. Due to the widespread use of mobile-apps, information such as felt intensity of earthquakes and general structural status of buildings, as well as necessary trainings might be exchanged on an interactive cybernetic system. The purpose of this study is to design and implement a prototype software for earthquake intensity assessment and to give an overall rough estimation of seismic vulnerability of buildings by using a rapid damage estimation method. In this research, following a systematic method for software design, system users and their requirements, and possible solutions are identified, and a prototype system is implemented. The presented software is capable of interacting with public to receive earthquake intensity estimates and building information, as well as reporting building vulnerabilities, and may contribute volunteers to register aftershocks. Using data received from the users, the system can provide a nearly complete database for urban vulnerability, as well as real-time interactive DYFI (Did You Feel It?), shake and damage maps, which may efficiently be used for earthquake crisis management and securing urban regions for hazardous future earthquakes.

The historical context in Iranian cities in the field of crisis management has been one of the serious challenges of the trustees. The city of Shiraz has a wide historical-cultural context with very valuable elements that over time and for various reasons such as physical problems and micro-fineness of the texture, instability of buildings, lack of proper urban infrastructure, including narrow and organic accesses, Lack of open spaces for residents to use in times of crisis, lack of sewage and other social and economic problems are significant examples in which the need for effective measures in crisis management is obvious.The aim of this study was to identify the drivers of crisis management in the central part of Shiraz using the mix method. First, by studying the researches done in the field of problems and solutions to improve the worn and historical texture, to extract the criteria and indicators and by using the interaction analysis method in Mick Mac software, the most important criteria Influential in the field of crisis management in the central part of the city was identified. Among these factors, we can mention the observance of the privacy of ancient monuments, the landuse of the current situation, Fine-grained plots, the observance of the privacy of Aqueducts and canals, The potential for improved access, as the most important and effective criteria Then, according to the passive defense approach, solutions for crisis management were presented in a case study.

The house, has always been vulnerable against earthquakes. Also, post-earthquake reconstruction process requires sufficient knowledge of context in order to provide solutions of housing destruction problems. Interaction of the goals of reconstruction policy makers and survivors’ needs, provides wisdom of reconstruct. This critical change in situation, do not allows planners and designers to apply a normal design process that follows a conventional model in reconstructed houses. The lack of attention to imperceptible events that affect disaster managing process, creates product-oriented attitudes in reconstruction. This process sacrifices survivors on the pre-determined route of mass-construction and product-oriented point of view; resulted inconsistency. Thus, the intangible and aspects of the process of design homes may have been forgotten. This paper, compared two fields of design process and post-earthquake reconstruction in order to reach the goals of successful reconstruction design process. Also participation as a connection of the two fields plays an important role.The methodology is based on a qualitative approach, including field surveys and observations. The supportive case is the evidence from Gufel Village that have been selected among rural housing reconstructions after Manjil1990earthquake. The findings show that, there are several periods of time in design process of housing reconstruction, that make one step through successful reconstruction. In the transition of formal phase of reconstruction to post-occupation phase of living in reconstructed houses, trust, coordinated and organized stakeholders are effective for the successful post-earthquake house reconstruction.

The water crisis is becoming more complex every day and is evident all over the world. With the escalation of the drought situation, Iran is also in a critical situation. Resolving this issue should only be addressed through key decisions, and this in turn requires integration and behavioral coherence between decision-making and executive bodies. Accordingly, more attention should be paid to the principle of convergence. Accordingly, this study was conducted with the aim of Presentation a Model for the Integration of Policy Agencies Related to Water Crisis Management, Based on the Economics of the Second Step of the Revolution Statement. This study is a development-applied goal in which using successive approaches, namely the content analysis approach and grounded theory approach to determine the main indicators and criteria in the field of water crisis management policy. Data-based theory (fundamental theory) is an inductive and exploratory research method that allows the researcher in various subject areas to formulate theories and propositions instead of relying on existing and pre-formulated theories. The statistical population of this study consisted of experts from the main policy-making bodies in the field of policy, namely the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade, Ministry of Energy, Iran Water Resources Management Organization and Crisis Management Organization and Passive Defense Organization. It was determined to reach the saturation limit in the grounded theory approach, to 9 experts. The results of this study confirm that what factors should be included in the agenda under the paradigm of grounded theory in order to achieve the desired consequences in this field.

The research was done to identify the threats of the political dimension of national security and the solutions to deal with them from the point of view of passive defense in the country. in terms of data; It is mixed exploratory and in terms of the type of study, it is a cross-sectional survey based on the Delphi type.In the statistical sample of the present research with a qualitative nature and with targeted sampling, 30 experts in the field of passive defense and national security were selected, whose opinions were collected using the Delphi method and in three stages. The factor was identified as a component and 140 indicators. In terms of quantitative nature, the statistical population of the research was formed by students of the field of non-operational defense at Farabi and Data universities, as well as expert professors of the staff of the non-operational defense organization, in this field, in the number of 200 people.The validity of the questionnaire was also checked and confirmed with content validity and construct validity. To determine the level of reliability, Cronbach's alpha test with a test coefficient of 0.9 and combined reliability was used, as well as the factor structure of the final indicators using both methods of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and using SPSS and Smart software. PLS reviewed. First, to check whether the indicators of political threats and passive defense in the political field of national security among the statistical sample of the research will repeat the structure of nine factors or not; exploratory factor analysis with varimax was checked on the data, and the results of the exploratory factor analysis showed that the indicators can be identified reduced to six factors and the results of confirmatory factor analysis show that the final model has a good.

Infrastructure is a unified network , where the occurrence of disruptions in a infrastructure can spread in all parts of the country and the extent of disturbance caused can affect national , economic and … state security . for this purpose , the main purpose of this research is to identify and prioritize effective environmental threats and to provide solutions to principles and principles of passive defense , after reviewing concepts , definitions , upstream documents and studing different types of threats in the field of infrastructure facilities through library and library methods , designing and distributing questionnaires among experts and related experts . then , by preparing questionnaire and prioritization of environmental factors on the basis of swot model and was evaluated by spss software . the results of this study indicate that protection of infrastructure facilities in the field of power plants with passive defense approach requires increasing knowledge of managers and experts in the country in relation to emerging threats , increasing the level of monitoring measures , applying new methods and protective equipment , observance of the principle of dispersion in design and layout of fuel tanks , holding various trainings in preparation , using effective international experiences in the field of safety .

For a long time, the water crisis has been considered as a serious problem in the Middle East region, which is increasing in intensity day by day. If the countries in this region do not manage and work together, they will face a deplorable situation in the future. Given the size and population of the Middle East compared to the amount of water resources in it, this crisis is really palpable. Currently, different countries in the region are not in the same situation, for example, Turkey has a better position than other countries in the region in terms of population and water resources in its territory. On the other hand, Arab countries such as Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. They are in a critical situation, but due to the good economic situation and the use of desalination plants, this problem has been partially controlled, but they are still exposed to this crisis. At the other level are Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, which have been embroiled in civil and foreign wars for several years, which are intensifying day by day. A distinctive feature of the Middle East compared to other parts of the world is that this region is one of the oldest human habitats, where water in addition to natural needs was used as a weapon in war. However, international organizations, especially the United Nations and relevant international organizations and regional organizations in the Middle East, must play a significant role in resolving this crisis, and the countries of the region must manage this issue through cooperation and solidarity with each other. The purpose of this study is the assessment role of international law in the water shortage crisis and its management based on the participation of countries in concluding international treaties and agreements.