نشریه مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی
پیاپی 33 (پاییز و زمستان 1402)

Analyzing the policies of the European Union in the Middle East and the world, indicate the existence of fundamental weaknesses in both the strategic and operational levels of this institution's activism. With a quick look at the problem, it can be seen that the lack of software and hardware balance in the general and regional strategy of the European Union is one of the most important reasons for creating such a situation; To the extent that european policy makers, aware of this fact, at the same time as signing the “Maastricht Treaty” in 1992, talked about the necessity of strengthening the hard power of the European Union in theory, and then started their practical movement in this regard. Although this goal remained at the declarative and theoretical level in the 1990s, upon entering the 21st century, it took on an operational aspect, and at the same time, the idea of smartening was extended to the European Union's Middle East strategy. since, it is expected that the European Union's focus on this area will continue in coming decades. In this case, the Middle East region will increasingly become a place for the implementation of European Union hardware ideas, and this issue will have a direct impact on Iran's interests in the region. Therefore, the continuous review of European Union activities in the region helps Iran to be aware of the challenges and opportunities arising from this as much as possible. Considering the importance and impact of soft power and hard power balancing of the European Union's general and Middle East strategy for Iran, the main issue of this article is to evaluate the performance of the European Union in order to realize the smartness of the general and Middle East strategy of this institution.

Research question: 

What are the solutions of the European Union to make its general and Middle East strategy smarter?

Research hypothesis: 

European Union using various theoretical and practical tools such as “Strategic Compass”, “European Rapid Reaction Force” and … to strengthen its hard power and in this way tries to make its general and regional action smarter.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

In this research, Joseph Nye's smart power theory has been used to test the hypothesis and examine the status of soft power and hard power of the European Union. The term smart power refers to the combination of hard power and soft power strategies. Also, the qualitative method, based on content analysis and the approach of historical-comparative analysis and data collection from historical documents, has been used.

The findings of this research is that the European Union, although due to reasons such as the lack of unity of opinion among its member states, insufficient hardware capacities, dependence on third parties such as the United States of America and NATO, and the existence of strong regional and global competitors, is still far from becoming an smart power; Since the Maastricht Treaty, it has acted in various ways to strengthen its hard power and has taken verifiable efforts in order to increase the smartness of its general and Middle East strategy. As far as we can say, the European Union's presence in the world and the Middle East has become smarter than it was three decades ago. For Iran, this brings challenges such as increasing the security weight of Iran's regional rivals such as the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the security strategy of the European Union and opportunities such as the use of Iran's operational capacities in security fields such as border management and combating all types of smuggling.

For the reasons mentioned throughout the article, since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, using theoretical and practical hardware tools such as the Strategic Compass, the EU Military Committee, and by launching missions and operations such as operation Althea and joint naval maneuvers with third countries in areas such as the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea have started a gradual movement in line with the smartening of the general strategy. The efforts made in order to strengthen the hard power of the European Union in the region and the world, although it has recorded a growing trend, it still does not have the necessary compatibility with the global geopolitical pressures and the realities ruling the region. This means that despite the fact that the European Union has started moving in the direction of smartening its general and regional strategy, in recent years it has intensified the measures related to this area numerically and has continued this movement; But due to the problems that mentioned, it is still far from reaching the standards of a real smart power. According to the points mentioned in relation to the consequences of smartening the European Union's general and Middle East strategy, Iran can benefit from the hardware presence of the European Union in the region to create initiatives in some areas such as managing border affairs and combating all types of smuggling by inviting this institution to join such initiatives. In the field of confrontation, considering the European Union's focus on maritime security and specifically the key waterways of the Middle East and its adjacent regions, it is necessary to take measures such as strengthening Iran's maritime and land capabilities in order to help manage the borders better and increase dominance over the key water ways of the region.

Due to environmental changes and global warming, the competition between regional powers especially NATO countries and Russia has intensified to gain geo-strategic and geo-economic advantages in the Arctic region. The Arctic holds approximately 13% of the world's oil reserves and Russia holds the largest share of the region's oil and gas resources. The Arctic also make a significant contribution to Russia's economy, accounting for one-fifth of its GDP and 30% of government revenues. Six out of eight Arctic countries are NATO members, including the United States, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Finland. Sweden is interested in joining this organization because of its close cooperation with NATO. The existence of common interests has increased the diplomatic and military relations among NATO member states in the Arctic and has made NATO and Russia the main players in the region. Nevertheless, Russia-Ukraine War and the subsequent increase in NATO's active presence in the region have intensified concerns for Russia in this competition. In addition, Finland's recent membership in NATO has expanded the organization's border areas with Russia and any actions by NATO member states poses a threat to Russia's interests and national security in the Arctic.

Research question: 

Considering the above factors, the main question is what is Russia’s strategy to deal with NATO's threats in the Arctic region?

Research hypothesis: 

The study shows that Russia has adopted a balance-of-power strategy to counter NATO's threats by strengthening the military balance in the region.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

This study uses a qualitative and descriptive approach to analyze the content of selected data together with subject matter analysis. The theoretical approach of the research is based on the components of Kenneth Waltz's balance of power theory, which emphasizes that governments create balance by increasing their capabilities against the dominant power in the region and international system.

By adopting a multifaceted policy in the Arctic region, NATO seeks to limit Russia and its interests and national security. First, NATO has expanded its military activities in the region by increasing its bases, conducting military exercises, and establishing a submarine defense line. Second, NATO has suspended cooperation with Russia in regional Arctic organizations; on March 9, 2022, members of the European Arctic Barents Council announced the suspension of cooperation with the Russian Federation.It was most striking when the seven members of the Arctic Council issued a joint statement and refused to participate in all meetings under Russia's chairmanship on March 3, 2022. Third, sanctions have been imposed and investment companies have left the Arctic region. Fourth, NATO worked for regional integration, Finland's membership and encouraging other countries such as Sweden to apply for permanent membership. And fifth, the internationalization of the North Sea route is another NATO threat to Russia in the Arctic. The North Sea route is one of Moscow's main interests in the region which is reflected in Russia's foreign policy documents. These actions are reminiscent of the military build-up of allies and Axis powers during World War II and the cold war as demonstrated by NATO's recent collective defense scenario. They provoked negative reactions from Russia and responded by the adopting a balancing policy against NATO threats. To overcome these concerns, Russia has strengthened its military capabilities in the region by building radar stations and missile defense systems, increasing military forces, strengthening, and equipping the naval force known as the Northern Fleet, modernizing naval bases and conducting various military exercises. 

Having vast territory and largest hydrocarbon resources, Russia considers the Arctic a strategic deterrent base against NATO's activities, especially those of the United States. However, since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow has increased its emphasis on expanding military bases and strengthening military capabilities in the Arctic, Finland's membership in NATO and Sweden's potential membership have doubled Russia's border threats while tying the countries to a proxy war. NATO members know that Russia is alone in the Arctic and that its strategic allies do not have the abilities to have a military presence in the region. On the contrary, NATO member states have tried to increase the number of non-Arctic states in the region in the form of military exercises. But Russia has increased its attention to defense and security issues in the Arctic. Therefore, measures are being taken to strengthen the power of Russian armed forces in the region. Russia also has a policy of multilateralism on its agenda in the Arctic. As long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues on the international stage, tensions will continue in the Arctic and Ukraine's efforts to get NATO and the United States more involved in confronting Russia will escalate tensions in the Arctic.

Parties act as political institutions that connect government and society. They also play a vital role in the political endurance of nations. The Russian Federation is one the countries that has an active multi-party system. The formation of parties in Russia started later than in Western Europe. The first political parties were formed under Tsar Nicholas II in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. However, until 1905, the establishment of political associations in Russia was strongly opposed until the declaration of October17, 1905. With the October Revolution of 1917, a one-party system was gradually formed in Russia, thus ending the first period of party formation.At the end of the Soviet era in the late 1980s and after the implementation of “Perestroika” and “Glasnost” by Mikhail Gorbachev, important changes took place in the Russian political system. This especially led to the re-emergence of parties. In the first years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the emergence of political parties was very rapid and numerous. Subsequently, during the following years, the party structure of the Russian Federation experienced significant numerical and substantive changes, a subject which this article tries to investigate.

Research question: 

What is the role of political parties in the political life of Russia? Do all Russian political parties have equal influence and rights since Vladimir Putin assumed power?

Research hypothesis: 

The hypothesis of this atricle is that the party system in Putin's Russia is effectively a “dominant party” system; in which parties affiliated with Putin’s United Russia Party primarily dominate and control the legislative process. The authors of this article also argue that the amendment of the Russian constitution in 2020 did not change the role and position of Russian parties in practice.

In order to conduct this research and answer the key questions, a descriptive-analytical approach has been chosen. In addition, the authors have explained the problem and investigated the issue by collecting and analyzing the required data through desk research and descriptive analysis of available sources (articles, books and reliable internet sources).

The approval of the law on political parties in 2001 and the imposition of party electoral thresholds (minimum share of primary votes: 5-7 percent) drastically reduced the number of parties. But in October 2011, the government passed a bill to simplify party registration. After the approval of this law, the number of parties increased. From the 4th Duma (2003) to the 8th Duma (2021), the “United Russia” as Putin's “Party of Power” has always won an absolute majority of votes. This party has the largest number of representatives in the State Duma and in the regional parliaments.Since power in Russia is ultimately concentrated in the hands of the president, it is in the interests of political parties and party elites to get close to him in order to reduce any tensions and disagreements. Indeed, due to the dominance of the “Party of Power”, the Russian political party system is virtually non-competitive. This is the main problem of party development in today’s Russia. Therefore parliamentary parties have many resources, while non-parliamentary opposition parties have neither resources nor political stability.Considering the contemporary dominance of certain political parties in the Russian parliament and their failure to replace with newer parties, it has definitely reduced the interest and willingness of Russian citizens to vote. In this regard, in 2016, the lowest participation rate in the history of parliamentary elections of the Russian Federation was recorded with only 47.88 percent. This low turnout was in contrast to the previous four elections, in which 60 percent of all eligible voters participated and two elections, in which 55 percent participated.Several amended articles of the Russian constitution actually strengthen the role and position of the president. For example, according to clause 2 of Article 95 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the number of representatives of the President in the Federation Council increases from 17 to a maximum of 30. Likewise, Articles 129 and 107 increase the interference of the President in the judiciary and thus limit the independence of the country’s judiciary. On January 15, 2020, Vladimir Putin once again inexplicably reiterated the need for a strong presidential system and sufficient powers for the president in Russia.

Although according to the constitution of the Russian Federation (2020), the country has a multi-party system, but in practice, the Power Party (United Russia) plays the main role compared to other parties in Russia. The party system in Russia has become the dominant party system. Russian political parties are not an effective bridge between the people and the government due to the weakness of civil society in Russia. Therefore, until a strong civil society is formed in Russia, the country’s political parties will not play a central role as a link between civil society and the government. The “United Russia” party as the dominant political party in power, has practically become Putin's tool to hold the majority of seats in the parliament. As a result, when Putin wants to become the president of Russia, through this party and in the name of “the will of the Russian people” he can influence the establishment of laws in Parliament without opposition and in line with his political interests.

The international system in transition and the uncertainty in it, has caused the dynamism of most regions in the world. The South Caucasus region is not exempt from this situation. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and its subsequent develpements, especially the 2023 Karabakh war, marked a path of no return for the South Caucasus region, so these developments had a significant impact on the actors of the South Caucasus.

Research question: 

What effect did the second and third Karabakh war in the South Caucasus region between Armenia and Azerbaijan have on the regional interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran?

Research Hypothesis: 

It is hypothesized that Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and 2023 respectively, has increased the dynamics of competition, threat and escalation of tension against Iran, while there are not many opportunities for it.

In this article, a comparative research approach has been used, which is realistic using a study model and the geopolitical approach in the framework of regional studies. Using geopolitical components such as politics, power, geography, economy (geoeconomics), culture (geoculture), geopolitical relations and balance of power. Data analysis is done in a descriptive-analytical way. The method of collecting information in this research is done by the library method.

Since the early 2000s, Russia’s policy towards the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has changed. Therefore, Russia's attitude toward the South Caucasus has changed from a sphere of exclusive Russian influence to a space in which it must both cooperate and compete with other regional powers. Moscow prefers to cooperate with Iran and mostly Turkey to respond to the growing challenges. In this situation and due to the fact that Azerbaijan is close to Russia and Armenia is far from Russia, the second Karabakh war started. But the third Karabakh war took place in a situation where Russia's power vacuum was evident in the South Caucasus after Moscow's involvement in the Ukraine war. The Karabakh war of 2020 and 2023 in the national dimension between Azerbaijan and Armenia caused the position of the victorious and defeated actors of the first Karabakh war to be reversed. In the regional dimension, new geopolitical relations and balance of power emerged in the South Caucasus.

The findings of the research proved the hypothesis raised in the article. The 2020 and 2023 Karabakh war once again showed the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus. These wars have significantly changed the geopolitical relations of regional players and led to the formation of a new balance of power in the region. Azerbaijan has strengthened and Armenia has become very weak. However, with the cease-fire of the Second Karabakh War, Russia was able to marginalize the western axis, which further weakened the role of the West, the United States, the European Union and especially the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (Minsk Group). But by entering the war with Ukraine and creating a power vacuum in the South Caucasus region, Russia saw its power in this region challenged by Turkey. In this way, the second and third Karabakh war marked Turkey's return to the region and pushed Iran to the sidelines of regional developments.Therefore, the 2020 and 2023 Karabakh war destroyed the fragile state of neither war nor peace that Iran was in favor of maintaining in the South Caucasus. In these wars, Iran could not play a role in regional developments to expand its influence and presence; Therefore, it led to the escalation of tension with the Republic of Azerbaijan, the intensification of competition with Turkey, and the seriousness of the threat of Israel's presence along Iran's borders. In the new balance of power that has been formed in the South Caucasus region, the Islamic Republic of Iran has a low role and position in the South Caucasus. It seems that Iran has been marginalized by Russia on the one hand, on the other hand, due to the role of western sanctions in preventing Iran’s action in the region; Iran has not been able to play a serious role and pursue its historical-civilizational interests in the South Caucasus. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran has tried to maintain its territorial integrity, prevent geopolitical changes in the region and its geo-economic interests in the South Caucasus. It has also tried not to get involved in ethnic movements and internal instability based on geocultural provocations.

Powerful countries always consider themselves the right to intervene in crises to prevent threats against their interests and gain more benefits. The West Asian region has an important place in the equations of great powers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran and West Asia's relationships with these actors includes a long history of mutual actions and reactions. Yemen has always been the arena of competition between regional and trans-regional powers and countries have tried to increase their influence in Yemen to ensure their survival. Today, Yemen is one of the active centers of the crisis in West Asia and many actors at the internal, regional and trans-regional levels have played a role in its developments in order to obtain good results. Governments have a wide role in the direction of domestic and foreign policy and always portray hypothetical enemies against their territorial integrity and such an attitude will be an important factor in increasing the political and military tension in the relations between governments. The developments in the West Asian region have not been excluded from this logic.Research question: The main question is: what are the similarities and differences between the threat-oriented foreign policy of Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia regarding the Yemen crisis and how it is evaluated.

Research hypothesis: 

The hypothesis is that all three seek to increase their regional influence, reduce threats and balance with a threat-oriented attitude but these common goals have led to the adoption of different policies. While Iran has formed an alliance with Ansarullah and supported the Houthis, Saudi Arabia has opposed this action in order to neutralize Iran's influence and maintain its hegemony by preventing the waves of the Arab revolution from spreading to its borders with the aim of controlling the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Russia has decided to mediate, be neutral and maintain good relations with the conflicting parties and by being present in the south of Yemen and prevent conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is looking for its economic interests in order to maintain its Eurasian mission.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

Based on the theory of balance of threats, Stephen Walt believes that countries are able to analyze external threats or act on threats. Therefore, countries often try to balance against other countries from which they feel threatened. The threat perception, whether correct or incorrect, provides the factors of fear and concern of the governments and affects the relations of the governments. According to Stephen Walt, the balance of threats can be a better indicator for predicting the formation of alliances and is able to gradually make changes in the foreign policy goals of countries. Therefore, Yemen can be considered an ideal example of the conditions in the balance of threats. This theory is based on the fact that the determining factor of countries' security is the power of each country to detect threats and understand and deal with them.The purpose of this research is to examine the similarities and differences of the threat-oriented foreign policy of Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Yemen crisis, using a descriptive-analytical approach based on the comparative qualitative method and the use of library sources.

In terms of economy, politics and security, the West Asian region has a special place in the equations of countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran and the relationship between West Asia and these actors includes an ancient history of actions and reactions. Today, Yemen is one of the active centers of crisis in West Asia and many actors at different levels play a role in it to achieve their desired goals. Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also tried to increase regional power, reduce threats, balance, maintain stability and increase their regional influence and have adopted different policies to deal with threats. Yemen's political developments are the main factor in judging whether Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia's sphere of influence will decrease or increase especially in a situation where Yemen is considered a suitable environment for the escalation of internal and external conflicts between regional players. Based on this, the behavior of these countries can be analyzed with components such as interests and gaining more points, considering different levels of power and ability to act in crises, based on the "balance of threat" theory. After the Arab uprisings, the West Asian countries look at the crises of the region with a geopolitical perspective and conduct their regional policy based on their interests and threats, and play a zero-sum game to strengthen their influence and prevent further influence and intervention of foreigners in the region.

While Iran has made an alliance with Ansarullah and has supported Yemen and maintained its influence in the region, Saudi Arabia has acted to counter Ansarallah and neutralize Iran's influence and help stabilize its hegemony. On the other hand, Russia has tried to mediate and strengthen its role by being neutral and maintain good relations with the conflicting parties with the aim of controlling the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea to ensure the preservation of its Eurasian mission by being present in the south of Yemen and increasing its bargaining power.

The Russian economy relies heavily on the export of raw materials, making it vulnerable to the political decisions of its client countries. Russia has a history of tensions with the West and periods of cooperation with it have been short-lived. Significant events such as the global economic crisis in 2007-2008 and the political confrontation with the West that led to economic sanctions have had a profound impact on the Russian economy. The most recent manifestation of these differences appeared during the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. Iran, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, has been facing Western sanctions for many years. These sanctions have led to a decline in the government’s income and a decrease in the value of the currency for Iran. This situation has limited access to global financial systems and has posed challenges to the international trade.To counter the impact of Western sanctions, Iran has adopted an anti-sanctions economic model that prioritizes domestic production and investment in infrastructure projects. Iran’s goal is to achieve economic growth by focusing on strengthening the domestic market and reducing reliance on foreign trade amid external pressures. Gaining insights from other countries with similar economic structures that have successfully implemented anti-sanctions models can provide valuable lessons for Iran's efforts. This article examines Russia’s experiences, which can benefit Iran’s efforts and examines appropriate anti-sanctions models for Iran.

Research question: 

What lessons can Iran learn from Russia's economic resistance and its ability to resist Western sanctions?

Research hypothesis: 

In response to Western sanctions, Russia has implemented import substitution and turned to the East. Inspired by China's successful “Made in China-2025” model, this approach could prove effective for Russia. Similarly, Iran needs a well-thought-out long-term strategy to build a robust anti-sanctions economy. Using Russia's experience and adopting the “Made in China-2025” policy can be a valuable plan for Iran's economic development.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The research method is qualitative and the data is collected by referring to articles and scientific sources. There are various definitions of economic sanctions and their conceptual frameworks in academic literature. For example, Knobel examines the historical development of theories on economic sanctions over the past century to address questions about their objectives, motivations, effectiveness, and consequences. Anton Flipenko offers two views on the definition of economic sanctions: Realism and Liberalism. In the liberal view, he identifies two approaches - Cosmopolitanism and Authoritarianism.

After the Ukraine crisis, Russia faced sanctions that threatened its economy. However, policies such as “import substitution” and “pivot to the east” helped Russia mitigate the damage. Similar strategies are used around the world to boost economic development and protect against shocks and sanctions. Notable policies include India's “Made in India”, Germany's “Industry 4”, America's “Buy American and hire American”, and China's “Made in China-2025”. According to the economic, political, geographical, and cultural conditions of Russia, China’s approach can serve as a model for overcoming development challenges. This model may benefit Iran's economy, which is facing problems caused by oil dependence and sanctions. Iran and Russia share similarities in their reliance on natural resources like oil and gas, facing government oversight, international sanctions, economic volatility, crises, and the desire to diversify their economies while dealing with bureaucracy and corruption that hinder efficiency.The slowdown in China's economic growth rate in 2015 prompted the government to act to accelerate development. This included the introduction of a series of government programs and schemes. One of these programs, “Made in China-2025”, was unveiled in 2015. It outlined the tasks related to advanced technologies, the development of Chinese brands, and the promotion of service-oriented production over a ten-year period. The plan’s main focus is on innovation, filling gaps in key sectors, prioritizing quality, promoting “green manufacturing”, attracting talented employees, and building Chinese brands. China has emphasized ten key sectors in its construction program, all designed to meet global and domestic needs. By relying on these sectors, China’s goals are to strengthen its economic capacity.Given the above information, “Made in China-2025” program can serve as a model for the Russian economy. In response to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, Russia has prioritized import substitution and increased support for domestic production and localization of industry. Russia can make significant progress by following the example of China. Furthermore, as Russia's need for new technologies continues to grow, it is considering a shift toward smart and digital products to align with global economic trends. In this research, we concluded that this model can be effective for Iran as well.

Russia has implemented the so-called “turning to the east” and “import substitution” policies to deal with the sanctions. East Asian countries have imposed less economic sanctions against Russia, making this policy a viable solution. Iran, which is rich in oil and under sanctions, can learn from Russian model and prioritize operational experiences in its plans. To overcome economic challenges caused by sanctions, Iran needs to implement import substitution, turn to the east, and design a long-term development policy. China's “Made in China 2025” program can be effective for Iran with the necessary adaptations. One of the strategies to reduce Western sanctions in Iran is to adopt global development models such as China’s “Made in China 2025” plan. This plan focuses on China’s position as a global leader in high-tech industries, robotics, and transportation using new fuels, aircraft manufacturing and more. By following this approach, Iran can create a long-term strategy to counter Western sanctions while adapting it to its own conditions.

During many centuries humans realized the importance of co-existence and friendly interaction with their fellows for their survival against the surrounding dangers. It has long been believed that for peace and development, human societies must move towards integration and unity. In the last century, the first human attempts to create a regional union in Europe worked. The European Union was formed from the European Coal and Steel Organization. EU member states followed two important principles; one is peace and the other is a common identity with European roots. Although this union was economic in nature in the first step, but over the time, it was able to achieve its important goals and make Europe flourish in all areas. What the European Union has brought to the green continent is integration and common identity. After the successful experience of the European Union, other regions of the world were also encouraged to form regional organizations and unions. Since the formation of the European Union, regional organizations and associations have emerged one after another on every continent. ASEAN and SAARK in Asia, OAU and ECOWAS in Africa and MERCOSUR in South America were among the most important ones. Meanwhile, the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) was formed in the Middle East, which was dissolved in 1980 due to the revolution in Iran. In 1985, the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) was established at the initiative of Iran with the cooperation of Pakistan and Turkey (the same RCD members).

Research question: 

“Why has the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) not yet become a successful union after four decades of activity?”

Research hypothesis: 

To become Union, ECO needs to creat a common identity by analysing its roots, connections and cultural contexts.

Methodology and theoretical framwork: 

To examine this hypothesis “Constructivism theory” has been chosen as the theoretical framework of the research. It will be a clear guide during the research. The method of this research is qualitative with a descriptive-analytical approach and based on a case study. The method of data collection is library and internet sources.

About four decades have passed since the establishment of the Economic Cooperation Organization. During this time, this organization has gone through many changes. ECO started working with the initiative of Iran in 1985 with the aim of becoming an efficient economic organization in the Middle East. A goal that became more unattainable over time. When seven Central Asian countries joined ECO in 1991, many observers expected it to become a successful union. The addition of the newly independent countries of Central Asia made this organization able to take steps toward realizing its long-standing goals, but now, after three decades, ECO is still not where it should be. The geographical area where ECO was established is a reminder of the thousands of years of co-existence of the people of this region far from today's political borders. With the formation and expansion of ECO, suddenly after the passage of several centuries, there were many hopes to return to the glorious days of the brilliant civilizations of this land. ECO is the epitome of the powerful "Heartland" empires throughout history. The legacy of centuries of co-existence for ECO; It is a rich culture by which it can help its member states to faciliate integration.

The question of this research becomes important because by reviewing the experience of the formation of the European Union, we see that this organization, like ECO, it was initially a regional economic organization with the membership of several countries, which gradually became a strong organization and a powerful union. The European Union started the process of redefining a common regional identity. A “common culture” is what brings countries together in a regional organization. In order to find the answer to its question, this research has briefly investigated the background of the formation of ECO. By reviewing the history of the formation of ECO, it is clear that the identity of ECO has always been changing. According to integration theory of constructionism, identity is not a permanent subject and changes according to the conditions throughout history. The establishment of ECO Cultural Institute has been an important step in the direction of cultural convergence in this organization. However, one of the reasons why this organization could not achieve consensus, success and unbreakable bond and appear in the form of a union is the lack of real attention to its cultural points.Undoubtedly, what causes the integration and unification of a group and the formation of a union will be addressing the issue of culture and its recognition. Culture is a “common heritage” of a region and a union. By exploring the common heritage of ECO member countries, one can take a step towards defining a common identity for this organization. Topics such as history, Nowruz, language, art, religion and the Silk Road are the six main legacies of ECO's identity. Each of these great legacies is an important artery in the direction of the formation of dynamic identity and meaning for the ECO organozation.

The Ukrainecrisis turned into a warin February 2021 after the escalation of conflicts. What sets this event apart from its 2014 record is the breadth, depth, subject matter, and sides of the conflict. In the third decade of the twenty-first millennium, a security-military crisis broke out again and geopolitical differences between the powers led to a massive conflict in the territory of a weak neighbor. Moscow's stance is that the expansionism of its Western rivals through the eastward expansion of NATO is a military preparation of Russian geography and the direct threat against it. Theoretically, the war in Ukraine is reminiscent ofthe concept of “indirect balance of power” which is defined as the competition of great powers over a small or weak country and their conflict on its territory. The war in Ukraine has shown the breadth and depth of the offensive / defensive power on both sides, forcing others to support one side against the other. Iran, which previously pursued balance in its foreign policy based on the “Looking to the East” policy and promoted its strategic relations with Moscow, has taken a position based onits grand strategy. Since the war in Ukraine has gained international dimensions, any stance Iran takes on international structural disputes and subject to sanctions, will affect the country’s foreign policy.

Research question: 

what effects do the Ukraine war have on Iran's balancing foreign policy and does it lead to a balanced foreign policy?

Research hypothesis: 

The war in Ukraine has made Iran increase the geographical scope of its balancing measures and promote the “Looking to the East” Policy at divided (bilateral) levels; combined (trilateral); institutionalized (multilateral) and “regional politics” in the framework of restoration diplomacy.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of the Ukrainian war on Iran's balancing foreign policy to show the process of continuity and change, outline the perspective of this policy and evaluate its results. Also, the goal is to critically analyze Iran’s balancing policy in the context of war. In this article, the trend Impact Analysis (TIA) method is used as a qualitative research method based on descriptive-analytical approach. TIA is a method for analyzing consecutive events in a given period to formulate trends by extracting data. Accordingly, events that shape or fluctuate a trend are selected as independent variables. Therefore, trends are the result of successive events as turning points. Understanding events allows analysts interested in tracking a particular trend to systematically examine the effects of current and future significantevents. TIA considers events as data and reflects trends by examining the relationship between them. Trends are identified with events and are defined as the result of successive events over time periods. The war in Ukraine has affected the balancing processof Iran's foreign policy in aseries of events that show the conflict between the interests of Russia and the West. Therefore, TIA is suitable for analyzing Iran's foreign policy and uses two theories; The theory of “balancing as a model of foreign policy” to explain Iran's foreign policy, which aims to prevent a great powerfrom attaining a dominant position or to counter such a position through alliances with rival powers, and the new theory of “balance of relation” which includes the concept of “balanced foreign policy” criticizes Iran's balancing foreign policy.

The main subject of the article is to explain the impact of the war in Ukraine on Iran's balancing foreign policy. While inspired by the concept of balanced foreign policy in the post-Cold War era, balancing foreign policy was theoretically formulated within realism concept as a behavioral model of the Cold War era. To explain Iran's behavior towards the war, the foreign balancing theorized by Waltz and Morgenthau was mentioned. Studies show that Iran's balancing foreign policy within the framework “Looking to the East” has been revived after the withdrawal of U.S. from the JCPOA and expanded with the warbetween Russia and Ukraine. From Iran’s point of view, the anti-hegemonic nature of the war and the prospect of continued conflict between the West is based on its foreign policy. Iran has expanded its relations with rising powers in the framework of the “Looking tothe east again” policy, through which Russia is military-security ally and China is an economic-trade partner. Furthermore, Iran seeks to form a strategic triangle including Tehran-Moscow-Beijing. Also, Iran’s diplomatic actions, including membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS and the creation of economic blocks for Asia, show that it considers the war as an institutionalized way toadjustits “Looking to the East” policy and expand its balancing foreign policy. Finally, Iran has expanded balancing and has undertaken diplomacyto rebuild the region.

The goal of Iran's balancing foreign policy isto reduce structural pressures by expanding relations with the emerging powers, reducing the consensus of great powers and the ability of the United States to delegitimize Iran at the international level. The “Looking to the East” approach is based on the balance of power during the Cold War. Today, countries act based on a different logic of balancing and adaption to international power dynamics. The logic is based on the balance of relations, diversifyingpartners from the different poles of power, avoiding alliances with one power against another and focusing on balance in interaction with great powers, whether old / new or West / East. Therefore, although in the dominant discourse of Iran's foreign policy, the classical balancing act originating from the cold war era is strategically necessary, but it lacks strategic sufficiency; because it does not include the diversity of orientation in geographical and thematic areas and therefore does not lead to a balanced foreign policy. The countries strategy in the balanced foreign policy is aimed at achieving interests in various subject areas through communication with a wide range of great powers without conflict, while this strategy has no place in Iran's foreign policy.

This research examines the possibility of developing relations between Turkmenistan and India in the field of gas export. With the increasing desire of countries to use natural gas to meet their energy needs, India has also focused its gas energy policies to increase the use of natural gas. Major limitations appeared with the expansion of coal and oil consumption; as a result, natural gas is at the top of the global energy portfolio. At least, in the medium term, India is heavily dependent on gas to meet its needs. In the most optimistic scenario, in 2025, India will be able to meet about 42% of its gas needs from domestic sources, and as a result, most of the natural gas will be extracted through imports.

Research question: 

The main question is what effects has natural gas had on India-Turkmenistan relations?

Research hypothesis: 

The hypothesis of this research is based on the fact that regardless of the limitations of the pipeline construction, the TAPI can provide the context of mutual dependence and the development of economic relations between the two countries.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

In this research, the qualitative research method to examine the hypothesis is based on Gavan Duffy’s pragmatic analysis method. Data collection tools are libraries and internet resources. The theoretical framework of the proposed research is Cohen and Nye's theory of interdependence in the complex era of globalization, which is used in this research.

The analyzses carried out in this research show that Turkmenistan is located in the Central Asian region, which has the largest oil and gas reserves. According to British Petroleum Statistics, Turkmenistan’s gas reserves were 13.6 trillion cubic meters in 2020, followed by Russia with 37.4 trillion cubic meters of reserves. Turkmenistan ranks second among Central Asian countries in terms of gas resources. In addition to huge resources and reserves of gas and significant production, the discovery of the Yultan field in the vicinity of Iran’s Dolat Abad field made Turkmenistan the focus of attention of consumer countries, especially India. Since the economy of Turkmenistan’s is dependent on gas and energy revenues, the country’s strategy is to export and reach the market of emerging countries such as India.India has had a historical and cultural connection with Central Asia for more than several centuries. After independence, India’s foreign policy has pursued various objectives. In the 1990s, the Nehruists developed their welfare, security and foreign policy goals. Based on this, the economic and security objectives of India’s foreign policy apparatus in Central Asia have received more attention. In recent decades, with the emergence of emerging powers such as India and China, Central Asia has gained a special position as the key point of this continent. India has tried to reach Central Asia and Turkmenistan through the southern ports of Iran and Iran's communication routes through Afghanistan. India's cooperation in Chabahar port projects and Iran-Afghanistan communication routes is due to the significant competition between China and Pakistan in Central Asia and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. By building a vast and intertwoven network of roads and energy pipelines, China has gained access to Central Asia and provided itself with extensive political, cultural and economic ties that have provoked India's sense of competition.India’s growing demand as an emerging power has fueled competition in the gas market in Central Asia. Although in 2011, India generated less than 12% of its electricity through natural gas, it has been trying to increase this amount in recent years. Although the TAPI pipeline can work effectively for India and supply the required gas, there are also some problems: One of them is the passage of TAPI pipeline through the rugged mountains of Afghanistan, the lack of infrastructure and the lack of adequate protection of the pipeline against terrorist threats in Afghanistan. Notably, Russia's stance on the TAPI pipeline is a stumbling block for India, as Russia still wants to influence the newly independent countries, in particular Russia wants to dominate the energy policy of Central Asian countries in a massive competition with the United States and the TAPI pipeline is part of this. It is competition. Russia considers the activities of Turkmenistan and TAPI with the purpose of its security. It is possible that in the long run, Turkmenistan's gas will be more prosperous and benefit India, but for now there is India’s presence because China is more present in Central Asia and Turkmenistan.

Three factors have been involved for Turkmenistan to act as a gas exporting country in the international arena and to form mutual dependence with India. First, Turkmenistan has rich gas resources in the Central Asia region. These resources have increased from 1.8 trillion cubic meters in 2000 to 13.6 trillion cubic meters in 2020. Second, Turkmenistan’s natural gas production has increased to 60 billion cubic meters since 2012. Yultan, Bagtiarlek and Barun Energy gas fields have put Turkmenistan the focus of attention of consumer countries, especially India. Third, the increase of pipelines, especially TAPI, is an effective step towards diversifying Turkmenistan’s gas exports to other countries and it continues from Turkmenistan to Fazilka in India and has caused mutual dependence of the parties. Also, the findings of the research show that, India, as an emerging power with increasing economic growth, has a great need for gas imports and Central Asia, especially Turkmenistan, has found a special place for India. Currently, India imports 35.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year and Turkmenistan is the priority for India’s gas imports.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the most serious crises that the European Union has faced after World War II. This war has affected all political, economic, social and security sectors of this union. As a buffer country with a geopolitical and geostrategic position between three powers, namely the European Union, Russia and the United States, Ukraine is of great importance and any action and movement requires the sensitivity of these three powers and their mutual reactions. According to John Mearsheimer, the moves made by the United States to expand NATO to the east are the main reason for Russia's attack on Ukraine. This war, with the asymmetric pressure of the crisis on the member states of this union, has increased the platform for the politicization of national identities and the combination of these two factors, along with the low competence of transnational institutions, has caused differences in the views of European countries to reach a common policy. 

Research question: 

The main question of this article is what were the consequences of the Ukrainian war crisis on the European Union?

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The current research has used the method of future research and scenario writing. Scenario writing is one of the basic techniques of future research method that focuses on creating and reconstructing future events and trends based on the collected evidence, data and information. In scenario-based planning, several distinct scenarios must be prepared in order to cover a wide range of different futures and obtain a reliable approximation of future trends and realities. The existing limitations on the number of scenarios are mostly due to the perceptual, analytical and cognitive limitations of humans and not the limitations related to the complexities of the real world. Scenarios always contain some contents that challenges our worldview and mental structure, otherwise we will remain locked in the same old mental structure and have to face its unfortunate consequences.

This invasion is considered to be the largest conventional military attack on European soil since World War II and it is referred to as the new crisis of the European Union. This crisis has revealed most of the realities and weaknesses of this union in political, economic, social and security fields. The European Union is a united body in the form of economic-political regionalism and multi-level governance consisting of 27 European countries. The initiators of the European Union integration plan claimed that the national sovereignty of the governments would be replaced by collective decision-making and the independent role of the Parliament, the Commission and other EU institutions. In the past decades, this union has faced crises such as economic crisis, debt, immigration, Brexit, Corona, the discussion of the limits of the powers, competences of the European Union and its institutions towards the member states has been one of the basic issues.Although according to some experts, the emergence of challenges and crises helps to transform and strengthen the unity in this union, but the war in Ukraine and its political, economic, security and social consequences, not only did not help this process, but also highlighted the role of the state over national differences and led to the divergence of the European Union. The findings of the research indicate that the war between Russia and Ukraine and its consequences, the imposition of Western economic sanctions against Russia, have stopped the export of oil and gas to Europe and reduced the economic growth of the member countries and due to the increase in energy prices and the inability to provide energy resources and the creation of a gap between the members of this union in the way of dealing with Russia, it has led to public protests. In addition, the war in Ukraine and its consequences have changed the swing of the pendulum of this union towards statists (against transnationalists) and led to the divergence of this union.

The findings of this article are that the crisis of the war in Ukraine has had many consequences on the European Union which has led to the divergence of this institution and as a result, the reduction of its power in the international system. This problem was caused by the deepening of the differences within this union, the vacuum of powerful leadership and the different positions of the member states after the war.In this article, an attempt has been made to investigate the causes and factors of the war in Ukraine by using the scenario writing method in order to examine the consequences of the Ukraine crisis in creating differences between the members of the European Union and weakening the position of this institution in the international scene. The Ukraine crisis has increased the differences among the EU member states with the three sides of asymmetric distribution of the crisis pressure, the politicization of national identities and the low competence of European Union institutions. This crisis has increased the differences between the member states of the Union so that the crisis management policy has been reduced from the transnational level to the national level and this issue is defined as divergence. In fact, the emergence of factors such as the emergence of monopolist nationalism, the expansion of far-right political parties or TAN (Traditional-Authoritarian-Nationalist), war and the trend towards geopolitics have challenged the process of European integration. This retreat in the process of convergence and as a result divergence at the level of the European Union has brought different scenarios and consequences. The possible future scenario of the European Union is its transformation into a confederation group with veto power for each country and one of the most important consequences is the change of the European center of gravity, the destruction of the idea of independent European defense, the dominance of the United States in the Trans-Atlantic relations and the weakening of the position of the European Union in the game of power and global leadership.

Analyzing and interpreting a narrative can provide insight into the occurrence of an event, its causes, and its nature. Therefore, it can be said that narratives are a way to understand events. Narratives can be based on fact or fiction, but they help people make sense of the world through stories about themselves and others. This highlights the importance of narratives in shaping actions in the world. From this point of view, the current crisis in Ukraine can be seen as a story in which both Russia and Ukraine are trying to present their narratives of the history, causes, and methods of their conflict. The purpose of this research is to examine the narrative dimensions of this crisis from the point of the view of Putin and Zelensky, who are its main narrators. To achieve this, data will be collected and then analyzed from the statements of the leaders of Russia and Ukraine.

Research question: 

The question of the article based on the relationship between the narrative and the dynamics of contradiction is: what factor has made the crisis in Ukraine prolonged and inevitable?

Research hypothesis: 

hypothesis is that conflicting narratives as incompatible ideological and identity beliefs by the leaders of Russia and Ukraine is the inevitable ground of the conflict and has become one of the long-term crises.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The theoretical approach of the article is narrative analysis. The reason for choosing this theory is that narratives shape our understanding of ourselves and even create the physical world. The research method for this article is qualitative content analysis. In this method, the main concepts of the subject are extracted based on the selected theoretical approach. In the next step, these concepts are interpreted as research data by referring to the words and opinions of Putin and Zelensky as the ruling elite. This method is a good way to achieve the research goal because it seeks to understand the opinion and infer the specific characteristics of a crisis.

Certainly, the history of the Ukraine crisis dates back to the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. But the turning point and the beginning of the conflict of this crisis was in early 2014, after the annexation of Crimea to Russia. Although this annexation was the beginning of a military conflict, on the political side, the first friction was caused by Viktor Yanukovych decision against Ukraine's agreement with the European Union in 2013. Since then, political movements in favor of a nationalist approach to opposing Russian influence led to a period of protests against Yanukovych government and ultimately to his ouster from power in 2014. After this period, Ukraine's tendency towards the West increased the tension between this country and Russia. Therefore, in the post- Soviet period, while Ukraine was following policies to consolidate its independence, the Russian Federation sought to control Soviet geography, which was defined as the foreign country close to the Russian Federation. These foreign policy goals, carried out by the two countries, have caused security duality against each other and the emergence of some crises. In defining this security dilemma, the narrative of the elites of these two countries has always played a fundamental role. Narratives are often used by the ruling elite to incite society and resort to war and violence against others. In addition to the reconstructing the identities that make conflict possible, another key condition in the escalation of conflict, is the role of elites who mobilize identities and narratives for war. According to this role of leaders, Putin's narrative of preventive war, removal of threats and nationalism, delegitimization, negativity and victimization have formed the three elements of his narrative to legitimize and justify the attack on Ukraine, while Zelensky, on the other hand, in response to Putin's narrative, has presented an opposite narrative of inversion, marginalization, and contradiction and has declared his narrative fictional.

The narratives of Russia and Ukraine have been formed in such a way that these narratives do not allow for mutual understanding or a short-term solution to the crisis, and that only a tragedy or miracle can end the war. Consequently, as long as the conflicting narratives remain unchanged and less conflicting narratives replace them, even if the current crisis temporarily subsides, it is still waiting to happen again. The structure of both sides’ narratives shows that Putin's story is based on both material elements and normative-identity, but the dominant and provocative narrative is based on material and geopolitical elements. On the other hand, Ukrainian narratives have a normative and identity nature due to their connection with Western narratives and formation against Russian narratives.

After the end of the bipolar system, by changing the geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics of the Eurasian environment, a new space for conflict and competition between governments was created in order to use the existing opportunities. In this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the important players in the region and the international system, tried to play an important role in this new game by recognizing the independence of the Central Asian countries and establishing political and economic relations with these countries. But gradually and with the subsidence of the collapse fever, the position of Central Asia in Iran's foreign policy decreased and space was opened for Iran's rivals in the region. Currently, the volume of trade between Iran and Central Asian countries clearly shows that Iran is not even among the top 10 trading partners of Central Asian countries.On the other hand, in recent years, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, governments have addressed the issue of transportation and strategic corridors to the extent that they seek to strengthen regional and extra-regional cooperation and convergence within these corridors. Today, strategic corridors and ports, with the participation and assistance of the countries of the region can create a suitable ground for the formation and strengthening of convergence and cooperation in the region. In this regard, China and Pakistan are looking for their economic and strategic interests in the framework of the huge project China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the development of the port of Gwadar. China's $ 46 billion investment in the corridor is designed to bypass the Straits of Malacca and the long Indian Ocean route. In addition to high economic costs, the passage of Chinese commercial ships through the Strait of Malacca poses security risks for China due to the strong presence of India and the United States in the region. On the other hand, Chabahar is the focal point of Iran for the development and expansion of the communication routes of the countries located in the northern part of the Indian Ocean and Central Asia. Due to its unique geographical location, Chabahar is one of the 10 most important ports in the world, which can be transformed into a mega port. In confirming the transit advantage of Chabahar port, it is important to mention that in the program of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the shores of the Oman Sea, where Chabahar port is located, is known as the closest intercontinental energy transfer route.

Reserch question: 

What factors will strengthen and deepen regional cooperation and improve Iran's relations with Central Asian countries?

Research Hypothesis: 

Chabahar Port and the North-South Corridor play an important role in facilitating cooperation and improving Iran's economic relations with Central Asia.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The authors use Cantori and Spiegel model and especially emphasize the extra-regional influencing factor. According to Cantori and Spiegel, the region is a concept based on a combination of geographical proximity and political context, increasing interactions, expanding the framework of common institutions and common cultural identities. For their study, they use a qualitative method with a descriptive-analytical approach.

Currently, the Central Asian region has become the scene of competition between regional and extra-regional powers. The importance of this region is such that two of the six branches of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative pass through the countries of Central Asia, but at the same time, this region is landlocked and to access international open waters, it is necessary to cross other countries. The Islamic Republic of Iran and especially the Chabahar port has the capacity to connect Central Asian countries to international open waters. But on the other hand, Gwadar port as a rival port of Chabahar has attracted the attention of Central Asian countries as well as China. China and Pakistan plan to increase the capacity of Gwadar port to 400 million tons per year in 2045. China is also trying to make Gwadar port a hub port capable of simultaneously berthing 88 motherships by 2050, which will tip the balance in South Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, East, and South Asia in favor of competitors.

Today, strategic corridors and ports can create the basis for the formation and strengthening of convergence and cooperation in the region if the countries of the region participate and help in different dimensions. Currently, China and Pakistan are looking for their economic and strategic interests in the framework of the huge project “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)” and the development of Gwadar port as a jewel of the strategic relations of the two countries. China's $46 billion investment in the CPEC Corridor is designed to bypass the Strait of Malacca and the long Indian Ocean route. By launching Chabahar-Sarkhs railway lines and trying to attract the participation of Central Asian countries in this field by inviting Indian investors, Chabahar port can create conditions for deepening and expanding cooperation between Iran and Central Asia and improving Iran's position in the region. If active socio-economic diplomacy is pursued, in addition to Chabahar port, the North-South Corridor will have a serious impact on Iran's economic and trade relations with Central Asian countries.

The end of the Cold War had a great impact on world politics. The destruction of the bipolar system and the emergence of a new international order affected the foreign policy of all countries in the world. On the other hand, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a new region called Central Asia emerged, and small and large regional and trans-regional powers defined and redefined their relations with it due to its strategic importance. In this regard, India also made significant changes in its regional and international policies and took a new approach. Central Asia, which is near to the sub-continent, has long had close cultural, social and economic ties with India and renewing old agreements with this region is very important for this country. India's need to secure new energy sources for economic growth and development and access to new markets has made Central Asia an attractive and strategically important region for India. Also, with the spread of religious extremism and terrorism in the region, India is concerned about its spread within its borders. Consequently, India has many reasons to pursue its interests in the region. On the other hand, due to Iran’s geopolitical and geostrategic capabilities and its position in the North-South international transportation corridor and other international routes, this opportunity is available for our country to benefit from the advantages of partnership through economic cooperation with India, especially in the Chabahar project.

Research question: 

This research tries to answer the basic question, what is the situation of Central Asia in India's new foreign policy and what opportunities does India's relationship with the region bring to Iran?Research hypothesis: Central Asia has a strategic position for India due to its geopolitical location and rich hydrocarbon and energy resources, market and access to Europe, and India’s access to Central Asia through Iran provides the common and individual interests for both sides.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

This research analyzes the subject by using the qualitative method and sample and process research method using the theory of Neo-liberalism. We will show that the developments of the international system after the Cold War, and the change in the strategic goals of India's foreign policy since the 90s, provides new opportunities for Central Asian countries and India for strategic- economic cooperation in which Iran can also play an important role.

Today, the geo-strategic prominence of Central Asia is emphasized by two main factors. First, Central Asia has gained importance due to the discovery of hydrogen resources and second, the region is a major transportation hub for gas and oil pipelines and multifaceted communication corridors connecting China, Russia, Europe, the Caucasus, the Trans-Caspian region and the Indian Ocean. India pursues numerous interests in Central Asia, but due to the lack of borders with the region and neighboring Afghanistan, India has to explore another way to connect with central Asia. “Connecting to Central Asia” policy focuses on broader aspects of India's cooperation with Central Asia in various issues such as strengthening bilateral and multilateral political relations, achieving strategic and security cooperation through military training, cooperation to counter terrorism and close consultation with Afghanistan. The policy also considers the region as a long-term partner in energy and natural resource issues. It is obvious that due to serious problems between India and Pakistan, the latter will not allow India to pass through its territory and reach Afghanistan and thus access to the Central Asia. The re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan is another problem that has brought serious security and political issues for India. With its capabilities, including the existence of the geopolitical port of Chabahar and being located in the North-South International Corridor, Iran can act as a bridge between India and Central Asia. The North-South International Corridor (NSIC) connects the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean through Bandar Abbas and Chabahar in Iran. Full utilization of NSIC will reduce the cost of transportation as well as the time of moving goods from India to Europe, Russia, and Central Asia. Another important point is that Iran's request for full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was accepted. SCO provides a platform for Tehran to come out of isolation and introduce itself as a bridge to the landlocked countries of Central Asia.  

Central Asia is a region of geopolitical and economic importance to India. The cooperation between India and Central Asian countries in various economic, military and security fields continue with the policies that India pursues in the region. However, Central Asia’s neighborhood with Afghanistan, which has once again been under the control of the Taliban, is considered a threat to India's security due to the influence of extremist religious groups, and on the other hand, it poses problems for India's projects with Central Asia. In the meantime, Iran with its capabilities, including the existence of the geopolitical port of Chabahar and its placement in the NSIC, can fill this gap and act as a bridge between India and Central Asia. However, due to their different political positions on regional and international issues, Iran and India have not been able to properly use the existing capacities to promote cooperation between the two sides in various fields. It is time for both sides to put aside their differences and focus on their strengths and common strategic interests. Therefore, Iran's efforts should be to activate the North-South International Corridor project as well as the development of Chabahar international port, and likewise, with the Indians taking more serious measures to access Central Asia, both countries could make the most of the situation.

The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan during the 1990s and their seizure of power was an important event in the fate of this country. Their fall and the establishment of the republican system in 2001 seemed to herald Afghanistan's entry into the corridor of democracy. However, the unexpected resurgence of the Taliban in the summer of 2021 was surprising to the world. This article attempts to examine the shaky process of democratization in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, from theoretical perspective of Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. This analysis seeks to answer this question: : what causes to the failure of democratization in Afghanistan and the rapid return of the Taliban?The integration of these factors facilitated the restoration of authoritarianism by the Taliban. The data in this article has been collected through library and documentary studies and analyzed in the framework of Acemoglu and Robinson's theories. The findings show that democratization of Afghanistan grows with the emergence of the Leviathan and empowers the society by eliminating anti-development norms.Despite international efforts for democratization that began at the Bonn Conference, Afghanistan's recent history witnessed the sudden fall of the Islamic Republic and the rapid return of the Taliban. The goal of the conference was to establish a new government and end the Taliban rule, but Afghanistan's deviation from the democratic path and the rapid resurgence of the Taliban reveals deeper complexities beyond common themes such as a collapsing state or systemic corruption. The vital role of participatory governance and social empowerment for sustainable democracy in Afghanistan was neglected. This failure highlights the complex relationship between govenment and society that is crucial to the maintainance of democracy. Therefore, we will further analyze the failure of democratization in Afghanistan and ultimately, the rapid revival of the Taliban. Emphasizing the nature of the state and society in Afghanistan and its consequences on democratization will be our focus.

Research question: 

what causes to the failure of democratization process in Afghanistan and the rapid return of the Taliban?

Research hypothesis: 

The hypothesis is that the nature of govenment in Afghanistan aligns with an absent Leviathan due to the weak structure and anti-democratic power of society. In such a setting, the cage of norms dictates policies and prevents the simultaneous strengthening of both the state and society, thus preventing the emergence of a Shackled Leviathan as a counterbalance to democracy.

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

This research examines the prerequisites for the transition to democracy in Afghanistan with a historical sociology approach. It rejects a simplistic and linear view and instead emphasizes the interplay of political and social factors. Drawing on more recent perspectives like Acemoglu and Robinson's, it highlights the necessity of a balanced relationship between state power and social consciousness. This balance, called the "Red Queen Effect," emphasizes the need for both the goverment and society to evolve and compete to preserve individual rights and independence and ultimately stenghten democratic transition. Acemoglu and Robinson analyze the normative barriers of democracy as the "cage of norms." Under the constraints of norms and the weakening of the state's capacity as another basis for the transition to democracy, the simultaneous empowerment of society and the state and the emergence of the Shackled Leviathan as an optimal transition point to democracy will not happen.

Afghanistan's weak state structure and social dominance hinder democratic transition. Norms constrain policy, halts govenmental and social progress and thwart a Shackled Leviathan. The lack of unified power hinders the use of resources and provision of public services and fuels poverty. Tribal values exacerbate the exploitation and violence that has become normal since the war. State-Social competition fails and hinders progress. Even intermediary institutions such as Jamiat-e-Islami, Hizb-e-Islami and Dawat-e-Islami did not prioritize increasing their modern capacity to collaborate with the govenment. The Afghan national government ignored the influence of the “Red Queen” concept and instead promoted specific tribal groups, a policy that was at odds with social awareness. During the democratization years, it was not the state but rather the actions of foreign forces that prevented major events such as the re-emergence of the Taliban. The stability of the state was not inherently linked to its authority. In a realm where there is no single authority (akin to an absent Leviathan), social support may falter or cease at any moment, affecting the stability of the state. This moment in Afghanistan coincided with the fall of the republic and the rapid rise of the Taliban.

During Afghanistan's Republican era, the absent Leviathan struggled to enforce laws, curb violence, resolve conflicts and provide public services. In fact, Afghanistan had wrapped itself in a facade of democracy, yet it had not even set foot in its corridor. The weak structure of this supposedly democratic system led to internal conflicts even during elections, deepened the state's weaknesses and limited the nation's development potentials amid foreign interventions. The divisions of Afghan society challenge the American narrative that simply hands the country over to the Taliban. The re-emergence of anti-modern authoritarianism was a gradual process, not a sudden event. Afghanistan lacks strong state authority which dims the prospects for democracy or stability. The lack of state authority and the resistance of rival factions perpetuate the cycle of violence. Escaping this, requires more than temporary changes—it requires leadership and dismantling the norms that fuel this cycle.

During the Soviet Union, as a result of accelerated industrialization policies and agricultural expansion, migration flows in Central Eurasia were mainly from the center of the Soviet Union to Central Asia. But at the beginning of the 1990s and after the collapse of Soviet Union, the situation changed. A large number of Russians living in Central Asian republics immigrated to Russia for fear of ethnic discrimination.  In addition, due to poverty and unemployment, war (in Tajikistan) and environmental problems, Central Asians migrated to Russia. This is despite the fact that a significant part of the migrations were labor migrations, which were done with the motive of employment and earning money to cover the expenses of the families living in the republics. Even today, due to cultural and linguistic affinities, family ties, ease of travel as well as Russia's strong need for labor in the early 2000s, the large-scale labor migration from Central Asia to Russia is one of the main streams of migration to Russia. To the extent that today, the remittances sent by these immigrants to their countries of origin constitute a significant share of the GDP of the respective countries especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, it can be seen that the migration flow in the region has been reversed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the integration of some countries in the region in the form of the Eurasian Economic Union and facilitating the free movement of labor among the member countries, it seems that changes have been made in the migration process from member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union to Russia.

Research question:

 In this research, focusing on the migrations to Russia from Central Asian countries, the main question is that: what effects has the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union had on the migration process from Central Asia to Russia? There are also a number of sub-questions, the answers to which can lead us to the answer to the main question. These questions are: What are the characteristics of Central Asian migrations to Russia? And what is the relationship between the economic theory of immigration and economic convergence?

Research hypothesis: 

In response to the above question, the hypothesis is examined that " The membership of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union has increased the process of labor migration from the first two countries to Russia by influencing the costs of migrant workers."

Considering that several factors can be effective in determining the flow of migration from Central Asia, which cannot be controlled, in this article the qualitative method of bivariate correlation is used. In this method, an attempt has been made to evaluate the relationship between the two variables of the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union (independent variable) and the change in migration process from Central Asia (dependent variable) by qualitatively evaluating the available data. Although the effect of variable a on variable B is not measured in this method, the existence of a positive or negative relationship between the two variables is evaluated.

Surveys showed that firstly, most of the migrations from the Central Asian republics are work and temporary migrations, and therefore are carried out by the population of working age. Secondly, the ratio of the number of immigrants to the total population of each republic is higher in poorer countries than in richer regions and countries. Thirdly, migrations often have a male face and are related to unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Fourthly, the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union has eased the labor migration conditions between the member countries and reduced its costs, and this has affected the flow of labor migration. At the same time, the lack of accurate and reliable statistics, especially regarding the country of Turkmenistan, and the impossibility of assessing the volume of illegal labor migration, were the most important challenges for an accurate assessment of the migration process in the region.Examining the collected data and information and comparing the share of member and non-member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union in the period before and after the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union in work migration to Russia shows that after the membership of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the migration of workers from these two countries to Russia has increased.

In this article, changes in the nature and countries of origin and destination of immigration after the collapse of the Soviet Union were investigated. Studies have shown that, unlike the early years of the collapse, when migrations were ethnic or social in nature, since the early 2000s they have become more economic in nature, and the two countries of Kazakhstan and Russia, became the most important destinations for work migration due to economic growth. Also, the impact of immigration process from member countries and non-member countries in the Eurasian Economic Union was investigated. The comparison of statistics showed that there is a positive correlation between the membership of the republics in this union and the increase of work migrations to Russia. In other words, with the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union, the number of labor migrations from union member countries to Russia has increased compared to non-member countries.

The crisis between the world powers in Ukraine began when Viktor Yanukovych, the country's former president, refused to sign a free trade and cooperation agreement with the European Union aimed at building closer ties with Russia. On February 22, 2014, following street protests against the government and the deterioration of the internal situation in Ukraine, Yanukovych was removed from the presidency by a vote of the Ukrainian parliament. Following these events, the “Crimean Peninsula” was occupied by Russian forces under the title of protecting the Russians of this autonomous region. A few days after these events, the people of the Crimean Peninsula declared their 96% approval to join Russia in a national referendum and the peninsula officially became part of Russian territory. After this incident, the scope of differences between the two countries remained and manifested itself in different ways until finally the war between the two countries started in 2022 and the field and military conflict has continued until now.

Research Question: 

How did the European Union react to the security crisis in Ukraine from 2014 to 2023 in relation to Russia?

Research Hypothesis: 

The hypothesis is that the European Union’s response to security threats between 2014 and 2023 was due to the lack of a coherent security and defense policy against Russia's uncompromising policy towards the developments in Ukraine, a result other than the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014 is the escalation of conflicts in the Donbass and the Sea of Azov and finally the field war and the annexation of the eastern regions of Ukraine to Russia by 2023.

Methodology and Theoretical Framework: 

In this article, based on a qualitative method and a systematic review, we examine the issue in the context of the concept of acting and lack of acting. The tools for collecting data and information were based on the existing method in the library format and the use of reliable internet sources.The European Union is considered as an important actor in the international community and according to the developments of the international system, it seeks to play a positive role and improve its position in various fields. Therefore, in an attempt to critically evaluate the performance of the European Union in response to security threats in the Ukraine crisis, we use the concept of activism as used by Burston and Volger in 2006. Activism has been a central concept in EU foreign policy since 1977. This concept refers to the active and conscious capacity of the European community in relation to other actors of the international system and the response to external crises, such as the Ukraine crisis is fully applicable to the concept of European activism. The acting parameters considered by Barston and Volger namely “Opportunities, Presence and capabilities” are designed for the international system. These parameters examine the strengths and weaknesses of the European Union as a provider of security in Eastern Europe. Thus, it is an assessment of the EU's ability to influence foreign relations by shaping the “perceptions, expectations and behaviors of other actors in international politics”. Therefore, the parameters of “opportunity, presence and ability” can show the evaluation criteria of the active European Union in the field of providing security and capabilities of this actor in the Ukraine crisis.

According to the findings, the European Union’s behavior towards the Ukraine crisis has changed from a passive actor to an influential one, but their uncoordinated defense behavior so far has been nothing but the imposition of sanctions, the establishment of a joint security and defense mission in November 2014, the Eastern Partnership program and the use of all-out support for Ukraine to counter Russia's powerful role.

This article, from November 2013, describes a series of important points in the gradual evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, including: Yanukovych’s decision not to sign the accession agreement, the emergence of the internal crisis and the fall of Yanukovych’s government, the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in Donbas and the downing of the plane MH17 and finally, it examines the war in Ukraine due to the lack of EU role before the war and the active role of Ukraine after the war. During the annexation of Crimea, the EU played the role of a neutral actor with no interest in the crisis and despite the EU’s continued peace-building efforts, which were carried out through the launch of a special mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in November 2014, due to its powerful role in Central Eurasia and Ukraine, the Kremlin was able to defeat the Union in this security crisis as it achieved its goals in this regard by annexing Crimea and building a bridge connecting Crimea and the Russian mainland in May 2018. As a result, by wasting the opportunity, presence and ability, the European Union failed to demonstrate the international community’s expectations for an effective role in the Ukraine crisis as well as in the Balkan conflicts. Even as Donbass elections in November 2018 confirmed Russia’s annexation, EU officials like Mogherini only condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine. However, after the start of the war in Ukraine, the reactions of the European Union were accompanied by many changes and created the impression that it would distant itself from neutrality and passivity and will fully support this country.