fuzzy delphi

Government institutions and policies play a crucial role in shaping the volume and nature of international trade and influencing its impact on economic growth. However, in recent years, fluctuations regarding trade and business policies in Iran have become more pronounced, emerging as a chronic issue. These fluctuations can contribute towards economic and political instability, thus inflicting adverse effects on society. Identifying the underlying causes of such fluctuations is, therefore, of critical importance. The primary objective of this research is to identify the factors that affect commercial policies in Iran. For this purpose, by employing the Fuzzy Dematel method, this study analyses the factors affecting Iran's commercial policies, drawing on data from a field study conducted in 1402. The results obtained show that that fluctuations regarding trade policy are the product of multifaceted economic and institutional factors. Concretely, the study reveals that sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, natural resource abundance, inflation, political stability, government effectiveness, membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), corruption, customs tariffs, and the degree of trade openness significantly influence trade policy. Furthermore, the strongest interactions among the variables occurs in the following order: exchange rate fluctuations, sanctions, trade openness, political stability, WTO membership, inflation, government effectiveness, corruption control, customs tariffs, and natural resource abundance.

The role of science and technology parks (STPs) in driving innovation and bridging the gap between industry and academia hinges on fostering a robust network of interactions and collaborations. Consequently, understanding the networking processes within these centers is crucial. This study aims to develop a networking model for STPs within the framework of an innovation ecosystem, employing systematic review, fuzzy Delphi methodology, and structural equation modeling. The research involved the selection of seven reputable scientific databases for article extraction. 42 studies, published between 1990 and 2020 (Gregorian calendar) and 1360 to 1401 (Persian calendar), were systematically reviewed and coded. The derived codes were subsequently presented to 15 experts as a Delphi questionnaire. The findings identified 16 networking indicators grouped into three levels: antecedents, decision-making, and outcomes. In the proposed networking model for STPs, at the antecedent level, the cultural and geographical environment exhibited the highest effect coefficient (1.23), while infrastructure demonstrated the lowest (0.59). At the decision-making level, operational decisions showed the highest effect coefficient (5.84), whereas external interaction had the lowest (1). Finally, at the outcome level, the component related to entry into new markets achieved the highest effect coefficient (1), while innovation had the lowest (0.41). Overall, the model displayed a good fit, offering a structured framework for enhancing networking in science and technology parks.(Based on the opinion of the first reviewer, in order to strengthen the article, it was recommended that the Persian and Latin abstracts should be between 150 and 250 words. Therefore, this was taken into account in the amendments made. Of course, it seems that the system settings should be changed in this regard).

Financial competence is an indicator that shows how a company uses its resources in the best possible way to earn profit and fulfill future obligations. The financial competence of an insurance company means the skill and ability to fulfill short-term and long-term financial obligations, as well as the continuation of profitability in compliance with the requirements. It is a supervisory body. Due to the lack of a specific model for determining the financial competence of insurance companies, it is necessary to determine a systematic model for measuring the financial competence of insurance companies in Iran.In terms of its purpose, the current research is one of the developmental researches, and a mixed research method (qualitative and quantitative) has been used to conduct the research. In order to extract the dimensions, components and indicators of financial competence, a qualitative research method with a meta-composite approach was used, in order to screen the indicators, a fuzzy Delphi method was used, and finally, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equations were used.Using the metacombination method, 58 indicators were first extracted, which were divided into 5 dimensions and 15 components. The reliability and validity of the indicators was done by interviewing 12 research experts and 52 indicators were confirmed by implementing the fuzzy Delphi method. The finalized indicators were presented to the experts through the formulation of a questionnaire and 198 questionnaires were collected and analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis and structural equations. The final model includes 5 technical dimensions of insurance, marketing dimension and market dominance, financial dimension, corporate and managerial governance structure dimension, and macro economic factors and operational environment dimension of the insurance industry.

AbstractAll countries are trying to formulate suitable theories to improve their production level. One of these theories that has the ability to deal with production challenges is the resistance economy theory. This theory is a global theory and advanced countries have overcome economic challenges by using it. In Iran, this theory has been announced with the aim of dealing with sanctions and international problems, solving internal problems, achieving dynamic growth and improving economic indicators, resistance economic policies with a jihadist, flexible, opportunistic, productive, endogenous, progressive and extroverted approach. In response to the question of the effect of these policies in solving problems, this hypothesis is raised that this effect is positive. In this article, using the experience of advanced countries, the appropriate components of the resistance economy were extracted to deal with the challenges of the production field, and by using questionnaires and interviews with elites, and using SPSS software and the Delphi and fuzzy Delphi methods, the appropriate components were examined and The ranking was made by the elites and the cases where the consensus of the elites was higher than 80% were used to modeling for the production area and suggestions were given.

Introduction :

Management knowledge always seeks to provide new models for the optimal management of organizations and solving their problems. Performance management is one of the management requirements that all organizations have used in different ways in the past to achieve the expected goals. The concept, approach, process, and method of performance evaluation have always been revised and continuously improved based on the need, and currently, it has reached its relative maturity with the concept of performance management. In the new approach, performance management is considered a tool to implement strategies and policies and achieve organizational goals, and its main goal is to increase the abilities and competencies and grow and nurture the evaluated organization. Such a view of performance management requires the existence of features that make the system efficient and effective, and the flexibility and dynamism of the performance management framework fulfill the above demand. Performance management is one of the main and fundamental tools of high management to achieve the goals and plans of the organization. In non-governmental public institutions, such as municipalities, this issue has been emphasized a lot. Since the municipality is in charge of managing the city, it is essential to pay attention to the management and functioning of the municipality. This is despite the fact that the proper management of any organization, including the municipality, will not be realized except with appropriate planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation, and revision to create a suitable environment for improving performance. Currently, the problem that exists in our country is the inefficiency of municipalities in the field of performance management, and the expected improvements in performance, accountability, transparency, and service quality have not yet occurred. Also, the performance literature in the field of urban management shows that the existing approaches emphasize more on measurement and evaluation, and the management approach is less representative. The existing models and theories in performance management are focused either on the individual level or on the institutional level and are less focused on the wholeness and comprehensiveness of the organization. Therefore, the main problem of this research is the lack of a suitable performance management model in the municipality, and that too with a comprehensive view in all dimensions. In this sense, a comprehensive and desirable model should be prepared and compiled according to the requirements of the municipality. Based on that, it is possible to reach performance management in the municipality from the stage of pure performance evaluation and provide more accurate information for better and more effective management to the municipal managers.

Since this research seeks to identify and explain the factors, dimensions, and consequences of performance management in the municipality and presents a new plan of information, it is considered applied research. Also, based on the research plan and in terms of data collection, the current research is descriptive research and the combined methods of interview, content analysis, and fuzzy Delphi were used to collect information. This research has been done with a mixed approach (qualitative-quantitative) in three stages. The first stage was conducted using the interview method (qualitative), the second stage was conducted using the content analysis method (quantitative), and the third stage was conducted using the fuzzy Delphi method (quantitative). The statistical sample of the research in the interview method was 20 experts in Bandar Abbas Municipality who were selected using the snowball sampling method. The statistical sample in fuzzy Delphi was 25 experts (20 interviewees and 5 university professors). After conducting the interviews, using the content analysis method, the factors, components, and consequences of performance management were identified in 3 levels individual performance, group performance, and organizational performance. Then, using the fuzzy Delphi method, the researcher’s conceptual model was sent to the experts for verification and refinement in three rounds.

Factors affecting individual management include two categories of behavioral factors including components (motivation, competence and individual skill, knowledge, participation in decisions, attitude, respect, and honor), and system factors including components (atmosphere and prevailing culture, system rules, promotion and reward and rights, leadership and management, cooperation and communication, justice and fairness, system structure, human resources development). In the field of group performance management, the influencing factors are divided into three categories of structural factors including (training and growth, fair recruitment and selection, goals and strategies, organizational atmosphere and culture, regulations, and rules, group promotion and reward, justice, and fairness, shared values ) managerial factors include the components (knowledge management, validity of managers’ decisions, managers’ characteristics, management support, human capital management, delegation of authority and power) and technical factors include the components (information and communication technology, health and safety of the work environment). The factors affecting organizational performance are divided into three categories: social factors including the components (laws and regulations of the society, justice and fairness of the society, culture and common values of the society, society’s view towards the municipality, human resources development) economic factors including the components (pricing of services, budget allocation, ability to receive budget, government’s economic approach) and political factors including (sanctions in supplying parts and services, power and influence of city council members, support for the organization (municipality), influence and power of municipal management in public arenas and government). The dimensions of individual performance management in the municipality are two categories of moral performance including components (morality, rule of law, humility, respect, patience), and functional performance including components (personal growth, individual productivity, creativity and innovation, cooperation and empathy, learning, responsibility, flexibility, effort, and diligence). In the field of group performance, its dimensions are divided into two categories of process performance including dimensions (timely information, accurate calculations of reports, quality of services, quantity, and speed of services, productivity and reducing costs, achieving goals, dealing with administrative violations) and human resource performance including (teamwork obligations, professional ethics, seriousness and group effort) were divided. The organizational performance of the municipality includes the aspects of financial performance with components (maintenance of treasury, payment of claims, compensation, and compensation, organizational efficiency, profitability, and income, protection of real estate), urban planning, and architecture performance including components (dealing with violations, quantity, and quality of issuing permits, renovation of worn-out fabric, implementation of the smart city) performance of urban infrastructure including components (equitable provision of opportunities, public transportation and traffic, improvement of safety and accidents, physical progress and quality of construction projects), performance Municipal and environmental services include components (municipal services on occasions, maintenance of waterways and canals, beautification of urban space, development and maintenance of green spaces, organizing industries and disturbing businesses). Finally, the consequences and results of performance management in municipalities are organizational excellence, stakeholder satisfaction, administrative transparency, public acceptance, improvement of financial and administrative challenges, productivity, efficiency, and effectiveness of the municipality.

To be successful, municipalities should move towards using new and optimal performance management methods. In this sense, municipalities can take advantage of the current research and its results to manage performance at different individual, group, and organizational levels. The current research gives a general view to city managers and by using the identified factors, dimensions, components, and consequences, it is possible to act in the direction of better performance management.

Various components affect the financial health of banks. This article seeks to identify and analyze the factors affecting the financial health of banks. The current research is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. In this research, quantitative techniques have been used for data analysis. Fuzzy Delphi was used to screen the components and Fuzzy Dimetal was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the components. The theoretical community was experts in the field of banking and sampling was done in a judgmental way. To collect data, background review, fuzzy screen questionnaires and effectiveness assessment were used.Fourteen components have been extracted from the background review and theoretical foundations. These components were screened with fuzzy Delphi and four components had a fuzzy number less than 0.7 and were removed. Ten components were analyzed from the point of view of effectiveness and effectiveness with fuzzy Dimetal technique. The components of rules and regulations, transparency, prohibition of usury and fairness of all relationships have the greatest net effect. One of the necessary tools to realize effective supervision in the banking network is to create transparency, disclose information and provide proper access to the latest data and information. In this case, experts specializing in bank analysis can monitor the banks' activities. In the banking industry, which is an industry based on trust, it is necessary to provide extensive supervision in order to maintain this trust, establish stability and prevent crises and bankruptcy. The health of banks mainly depends on compliance with the standards of capital adequacy, asset quality and profitability, which are greatly influenced by information transparency and regulations.

Credit ratings reflect the publisher's ability and willingness to fulfill its financial obligations fully and in a timely manner, leading to increased confidence in listed corporations (publishers). The main purpose of the plan is to identify and present the obstacles and limitations of the activities of credit rating agencies of Tehran Stock Exchange (in terms of capital market development).According to the purpose of the research, the questionnaire of opinions of financial experts including academic and capital market experts in the form of Fuzzy Delphi method to gain knowledge and understanding of their views, validity of the theoretical framework and identification of barriers and limitations the activities of credit rating agencies of stock exchange corporations, securities, securities of Tehran have been obtained in accordance with the conditions and environmental situation of Iran. According to the consensus of experts, the research findings show that out of 52 indicators and questions asked for barriers and restrictions on the activities of credit rating agencies in Iran, a total of 13 indicators (including eight cultural, educational,‌ one economical and four legal indicators) were rejected. And 39 indicators were approved by experts. Also, among the 10 components proposed for barriers and restrictions on the activities of credit rating agencies in Iran, a total of two rejected cultural-educational components and a cultural-educational component, three economic components and four legal components were approved by experts. The above results can be interpreted and explained by the theory of information asymmetry and the efficient market hypothesis.

The Purpose of this study is to develope a technologically entrepreneurial model with Open Innovation Approach for Iranian knowledge-based companies operating in oil and gas industries. It helps them achieve their goals in line with the sustainable economic development considerations. Therefore, a mixed exploratory approach is adapted which incorporates both content and survey analysis to captures the qualitative   and quantitative aspects. In Qualitative section of this study 87 articles out of 336 articles from ISI and Scopus databases were selected while in quantitative section Delphi method was used in which 15 questionnaires designed and distributed in relevance to key respondents. In Path Analysis Stage a sample of 230 questionnaires were randomly distributed among company managers. Validity and reliability of qualitative part were confirmed by inclusion criteria, review by expert coder, multi-coder agreement, and that of quantitative part were confirmed by experts and Cronbach's alpha. Qualitative data and quantitative data were analyzed respectively by open and axial coding, and fuzzy Delphi and path analysis. The results indicate that open innovation is effective in discovering new technologies, creating product or process innovations and thus creating value and gaining a competitive advantage. It facilitates the technological entrepreneurship and increases the profitability and market share. Also, organizational and environmental factors have the greatest impact on technological entrepreneurship and corporate success through open innovation. This research help companies succeeds in their goals and policy makers to achieve sustainable development.

Due to the presence of human resource in all parts of an organization, risks related to the human resources can be extended to all organizational activities and disrupt the implementation of the organization’s plans. Accordingly, and considering the major research gap in the field of human resource risk, the aim of this study is identifying and prioritizing human resource risks in the Iranian insurance industry. After systematic study of literature and finding 59 related articles, and through interviewing 15 experts in the Iranian insurance industry, human resource risks are identified, screened, and prioritized using thematic analyses, fuzzy Delphi and network analyses. The findings demonstrate that human resource risks in Iranian insurance industry consists of recruitment, compensation, training, performance appraisal and nonfunctional risks; among which the importance of recruitment risks is higher than other risks. Thus, recruiting the right human resource will pave the way to development of Iranian insurance industry.

The increasing expansion of financing through the capital market and the introduction of guidelines for the establishment and operation of Credit Rating Agencies, necessitates the development of appropriate credit rating models for financial instruments. On the other hand, the capital market is centered on sukuk bonds, which will be required by the Securities and Exchange Organization, in the case of credit rating agencies, the sukuk rating. the present study has developed a Ijareh Sukuk ranking model. the problems of the issuance of Ijareh Sukuk process, such as the obligatory existence of the guarantor, will be overcome and, on the other hand, the field of transparency of the financing market and the acceleration of the financing process through the capital market will be provided. in this research, after studying the theoretical foundations of the subject matter of the research, including the rules and instructions issued by the securities and stock market organization, the theoretical and scientific principles regarding the rating of securities and the procedures of institutions in the field of credit rating Sukuk rental, The primary model of credit rating for Sukuk rental was extracted, then the dimensions, specifications and indicators of the template were subjected to an expert opinion survey using the Delphi research method .Finally, based on the received comments, the final framework of the credit rating model Sukuk rental was developed in the capital market of Iran. The model generally consists of 2 dimensions including credit rating and fiduciary ranking, and each dimension has components and indicators that form these factors of the conceptual model of credit rating of the rental bonds. in this research, in addition to analyzing the results in classical Delphi format, the Fuzzy Delphi method has also been used to reduce the effect of verbal bias in the research process.

This study was designed to explain the Blockchain acceptance indices in Iran's financial markets aimed at identifying different angles for the implementation of Blockchains. The Blockchain acceptance indices were extracted in 4 levels, 12 variables, and 53 indices of related research literature in the field of e-commerce and mobile banking. To validate the research indicators, the Fuzzy Delphi technique was used to refine the indices in addition to the documentary study. The survey was conducted in three stages and the results of each stage were refined. Based on data analysis, 39 indicators were confirmed. The results of this study can provide useful insights for researchers and policymakers of Iran’s financial markets to understand the prerequisites and effects of the Blockchain implementation on financial markets, and thereby, they would be able to change business models to take advantage of Blockchain capabilities in the infrastructure of Iran’s financial markets by considering different aspects.

Market characteristics Knowing based on the principles of Islam is considered essential in Muslim communities. Analysis of market characteristics and functions is one of the most important topics of Islamic economics that have been little studied. This need is more pronounced when the unrealistic assumptions about market competition, causes the issue of information asymmetry in the market and undermined the efficiency of the market. Present study done to determine the types of options in Islam and its impact on information asymmetry. Options related to commodity market and information extracted after studying in the field of trade options, and then those are presented on questionnaire's framework and are distributed among professionals. 7 options of 14 options are recognized effective on information asymmetry reducing in the market based on professional's comments that received by running fuzzy Delphi. From these options, defect option and the right to terminate option if inconsistent of all the object of sale had most effective.

To apply appropriate changes in the organizations of the public sector, governments are obliged to develop some policies regarding fundamental changes or corrective changes or the both in organizations. The Iranian National Tax Administration (INTA) could not resist these changes and reforms too, inevitably in need of undergoing changes for obtaining the organizational objectives. Outsourcing is one of the key issues gaining special position in the organizations, whose importance increases day by day. Due to the major public objectives and policies and the reforms to be implemented by the organization, "privatizing and downsizing of the public sector, the law of civil services, the Article 44 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran and globalization", outsourcing of organizational processes, changes and reforms in this regard accord with the organizational long-run policies, strategies and objectives. In this paper, it has been tried to provide a model for outsourcing and to introduce criteria in order to evaluate working processes in the INTA through employing the fuzzy Delphi method and the fuzzy TOPSIS decision-making model for evaluation and prioritization of the processes to be outsourced.