جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Smooth Transition Regression Model » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

In this study, a new composite index, called the SWI (Sustainable Welfare Index) is proposed to assess "sustainable welfare". This index consists of significant social, economic, and environmental variables in flow and monetary forms, and can be directly compared to the GDP. Despite the paucity of statistical data, an attempt has been made to make a relative assessment of sustainable welfare in the Iranian economy during the years 2004 to 2018. According to the comparison of calculated SWI with GDP, it has been shown that the two indicators have similar movements and higher correlations in the period under study. In addition, despite the availability of economic growth during the period, society has been below a sustainable welfare level. In this study, the threshold effect of three SWI sub-indices on the total index was assessed using the smooth transition regression (STR) Model. As a result, the sub-index "Social Expenditure" through changes in "welfare losses due to income inequality" is of threshold effect on SWI.

The relationship between exchange rate changes and trade balance has always been one of the major issues in theoretical literature and policy circles. A new approach to theoretical literature and empirical work suggest that the interaction of these two variables depends on a number of issues, including how each country's export and import markets interact, and the degree to which exports of goods are dependent on imports. For this purpose, in the paper, the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the Iranian economy is examined by considering the crucial role of Intra –industry trade in the form of smooth transition regression model for the period 2001: 4 to 2018: 4. The results showed that the coefficient of effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance in each period is affected by the intra--industry index, so that the lower the index, the less the effect of the exchange rate increase on the trade balance, and as this index improves, the impact is greater. This means that the positive effects of money devaluation on the trade balance can be benefited when the competitiveness of domestic products with similar foreign goods in each sector increases.

Explain the relationship between income inequality and economic growth of the areas challenging economic issues in recent decades, and despite extensive research in this area, it is still unclear lot in this regard there and experimental studies on a series of contradictory results led. In this paper we study the nonlinear effect of income inequality on the economic growth in Iran. We use a smooth transition regression model and annual data during the period 1973-2015 to investigate the asymmetric effect of income inequality on growth. We have identified two regimes in the model and in these regimes the income inequality has affected the economic growth differently. The results show that the Gini index has a positive effect on growth during the regime one (when the gini coefficient of less than 0/48), but it has a negative effect in the second regime (when the gini coefficient of higher than 0/48). Similarly, the financial development and government expenditure had affected the economic growth differently in different regimes.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear behavior of monetary policy at the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran in uncertainty condition. To achieve this goal, the nonlinear behavior of the central bank's reaction function to the inflation uncertainty in the form of smooth Transition Regression model (STR) is estimated using seasonal data during the 1997:1-2015:3 periods. The results of this study indicate that the variable behavior and regime change in monetary policy of the central bank of Iran in the various conditions of inflation. By passing the uncertainty of inflation from a threshold level, the behavior of monetary policy has been changed so that the coefficients of the model are consistent with the Taylor rule. Based on the results of the present study, it is suggested to consider the economic uncertainty index in order to determine the optimal monetary policy.

In this study, using the smooth transition regression (STR) and quarterly data during the period of 1997:1-2015:3, the nonlinear monetary policy functions of the Central Bank of Iran,regarding the risk of financial markets, be estimated. The results indicated that the risk of financial markets is an important factor in regime switching of monetary policy in Iran. By passing the risk of financial markets from a threshold level, monetary policy is focused on adjusting the output gap so that the coefficient of output gap is consistent with the Taylor rule in the second regime while in the linear part (the first regime) it is in contrast to the expected coefficient. This results indicate the variability of monetary policy behavior in various financial market risk situations. However, the coefficient of inflation gap in both regimes and both scenarios is not statistically significant.

This study investigates the impacts on government spending and its financing resources including tax revenues، oil revenues and government debts on GDP in Iran during 1350 to 1387 period. For this regards، Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model has been employed. The results show that، there is a significant nonlinear relationship among government spending and its financing resources and GDP with respect to inflation as a transition variable. The STR estimation results show that، threshold value of inflation is 14. 8 percent and smoothing parameter is equal to 10. Based on the results، in first regime where inflation is lower than threshold value، government spending، tax revenues، oil revenues، government debts and inflation have positive، negative، negative، positive and positive effects on GDP، respectively. In second regime، where inflation is higher than threshold value، the maintained variables have negative، positive، positive negative and negative effects on GDP. All the estimated coefficients of model are significant. The results of robustness check tests also indicate on enough validity of STR model in order to fit the maintained relationship. These results emphasis on inflation control and necessarily of reduction the government dependence on oil revenues and banking debts.