A Fuzzy Approach to Estimate Dutch Disease Index in Iran

This study aims at estimating the Dutch disease and identifying its trend over a span of 31 years from 1978 to 2008. To this end, based on empirical studies and evidence of Dutch disease, fuzzy index series of Dutch disease were estimated by using (MATLAB). Results show that after oil shocks in the 50’s, Dutch disease occurred with the largest scale while the 60’s witnessed less Dutch disease. Moreover, in the oil shock of 2001 to 2006, after establishing the exchange reserve account in the early years, Dutch disease occurred on a smaller scale, while after 2004 the increased in withdrawals of this account, led to Dutch disease in a larger scale.