نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
پیاپی 1 (بهار و تابستان 1393)

Some studies show that inflation decreases the economic growth, while some others claim that inflation has positive effect on economic growth. Recently, several studies have examined the nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. This paper tries to explain the effects of inflation on Iranian economic growth based on a nonlinear model, TAR-ECM. Data are applied during 2004-2007. Our results support a nonlinear inverse-U shape effect of inflation on economic growth. The threshold level is 9 percent. This means that inflation below 9 percent can increase economic growth, but inflation above that will decrease the economic growth. Our results indicate that the central bank can peg inflation target at 9 percent level.

The examination of Gross Domestic Production behavior and some sectoral and macro variables show that latter convey some useful information as leading indicators for forecasting GDP. So, the past information on these indicators helps to reduce the forecast error of GDP. The objective of this paper is to identify the leading indicators and to compare the ability of those in forecasting short run GDP growth. In this regard, fourteen leading indicators in 8 periods are evaluated. Moreover, the forecasts are compared with the ones with univariate ARMA method based on RMSE criteria. The results show the relative outperformance of forecasts with informal exchange rate, although the quality of leading indicators during different period is changing.

Child labor is a sign of “current household’s poverty”, which in turn leads to “future poverty” and causes vicious circle of poverty in a family. This research aims to assess the intra-household factors that affecting the work and school attendance of children, by using Bivariate-probit models as a joint decision making of parents in Iran. We use households’ income and expenditure survey 2009 both for urban and rural areas. Our findings reveal that family background of children is among the main causes of child work decision in urban and rural families. More specifically, parental age, schooling, wage and non-labor earning are the main determinants of child’s time allocation. Furthermore, child gender, her age and region of residence are observed as significant factors which cause being a child labor.

The main objective of this study is to provide a dynamic simulation model of unemployment rate in Iran by using aggregate demand and comparison with the statistics provided by the central bank. The unemployment rates in the period 1976 - 2013 using ex-post simulation and dynamic least squares simulation methods, simulation were done. To this end, at first, by identifying the variables affecting on aggregate demand, equations for consumption, public, private and foreign functions are formulated. Next, using a simultaneous equations system and scenario making, the unemployment rate is dynamically linked to the aggregate demand. One of the successes obtained in the simulation process is high significance of the estimated equations. Simulation results show that the unemployment rate declined from 16.1 percent in 2006 to 15.9 percent in 2009 and then increased to 25.5 percent in 2013.

It is believed that social aspects and institutional components of sustainable development, have a great importance in economic growth process, but it should be considered that this effect on economic growth is indirect. This effect is done through some channels; one of these channels is the direct effect of social capital on financial development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate mostly one of the obstacles of financial markets development in Iranian Economy. The analyses are done by statistical models, econometrics and hypothesis tests by ARDL approach. The findings indicate that the index of embezzlement, bribery and forging have negative effects on the ratio of credit allocated to private enterprises to total domestic credit in short and long-run. On the other hand, the index of cheque default has a negative effect on the multilateral index of social capital on the ratio of commercial banks domestic assets to the banking system assets.

In the view of new brain drain literature, the possibility of emigrating to an economy with higher wages raises the expected return of education for remained individuals will generate incentives for individuals to make investments in education. So, this may compensate the initial reduction in the human capital stock. In this paper to test the brain gain and compute the net brain gain in Iran, we have estimated the system of simultaneous equations that contain the human capital and economic growth equations. We use the data of census and information of the emigration of skilled labor to G7 countries in during 1960-2009. The estimation results by 3SLS method say that the brain gain hypothesis is not rejected in Iran (the coefficient of drain in human capital equation is positive), but because of the negative and strongest effect of brain drain on economic growth, the net brain gain is negative.

This study aims at estimating the Dutch disease and identifying its trend over a span of 31 years from 1978 to 2008. To this end, based on empirical studies and evidence of Dutch disease, fuzzy index series of Dutch disease were estimated by using (MATLAB). Results show that after oil shocks in the 50’s, Dutch disease occurred with the largest scale while the 60’s witnessed less Dutch disease. Moreover, in the oil shock of 2001 to 2006, after establishing the exchange reserve account in the early years, Dutch disease occurred on a smaller scale, while after 2004 the increased in withdrawals of this account, led to Dutch disease in a larger scale.

One of the most important research aspects in view of providers of these services (electronic banking services) is the society demand. Many studies have been done on the basis of sampling but there is no study which has been done by entire data of statistical population.The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyses of the effects of factors such as fees, national income, urbanization rate, literacy rate, inflation rate, the number of service providing machines, and the number of issued cards affecting the demand; based on the theoretical demand functions.So, we expect that all factors will have positive effect on demand except fee. In the modeling, we use panel data of 16 banks during 2006-2010 and factor analysis method for time-series variables. Actually, only the fee has negative effect on quantity of demand. The factor fee has low-elasticity because there is no exact replacement for these services.

Based on Interest Free banking law, banks can use various contracts to finance applicant's facilities according to their needs. In this study, the effective factors on banking system policymaker’s preference to offer a variety of facilities to customers in the interest free banking system have been identified and prioritized. On this basis, the main research questions are: What are the important and effective criteria on banking system policymaker’s preference to offer variety of facilities to customers in the interest free banking system? How is the Priority of these factors with the help of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)? In this research, the hybrid method is used. Therefore, the appropriate criteria have been identifying and prioritizing in three stages and through the study of literature review, interviews with experts and questionnaires and finally using the analytic hierarchy process. The results indicate that the effective factors on banking system policymakers preference to offer variety of facilities to customers in the interest free banking system in order of importance are: the proper implementation of the contract, fair distribution of income, ability to monitor the contract on behalf of the bank, operating expenses of the bank and easily understood nature of the contract.

In this study, we employ hedonic modeling to explain price of land, utilizing a unique dataset for Tehran. The dataset contains actual transaction records for Tehran's Zone 8 in 2010. Our results are consistent with the urban economic theories: Variables such as lot size, social status of neighborhood and permitted building volume have positive effects on the price of land, but the distance of land from places such as parks and highways has a negative effect on it. The parametric estimators are also compared to more flexible semi parametric estimators which do not improve the results.