Prediction Model of Iran's Crop Production Potential to year 2025

The aim of this study is to develop a model to provide projections of supply of major crops in target year 2025 in Iran. To this end, a model was constructed using positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach. The model takes into account production factors constraints in different provinces in the base year as well as in the target year, and provides forecasts of potential supply of major crops in each of the provinces as well as in national level. In addition, price levels and land productivity of the crops for target year as input to the PMP model were projected using ARIMA time series approach. Results indicate that from 2008 to 2025, total crop production will increase from 36.17 million ton to 45.5 million ton with a cumulative growth rate of 25.8 percent. The rate of change differs among different crops. Cereals show the highest growth rate (%76.1) while vegetable (%2.15) and industrial crops (%20.5) reveal the lowest ones. Comparing the predicted supply with those of demands, indicate that supply of wheat, potato, onion and cereals will meet the direct demand for these commodities, however, the country will experience supply shortages in the case of oilseeds, sugar beet and rice and calls for more investments in production.