Simulating future land use changes based on an ecological optimal pattern in Mashhad metropolitan region

The objective of this article is to Simulate the future land use changes based on an ecological optimal pattern in Mashhad metropolitan area. The research method is quantitative one which with overlying all those patterns the final optimal land-use pattern will be generated. The result of the ecological pattern shows that there is ten deciles which as we move from first deciles to tenth deciles we find more appropriate sites for development. One of the results of this study is that the best and the ideal way of developing is infill development and maximum using of existing developed lands. In addition, based on the ecological pattern three scenarios were simulated for 2026. In the first scenario the amount of built areas is at the lowest, and is equal to 659 km2. In the second scenario 735 km2 will be developed and according to this scenario parts of agriculture lands will be degraded. In the third scenario 775 km2 will be developed which is in opposition to optimal ecological pattern. Thus, it could be said that continuation of the existing growth will lead to irreparable consequences in the area. Environmental crises such as water crisis, air pollution and pressure on infrastructure and so on, will lead to human crises like riots, crimes and vandalism. Thus is necessary that planning system pay attention to reasonable managing growth.