Climate Change, Drought and Poverty in Iran: A Perspective of Future

Climate change and water scarcity is the most important current and future challenge of Iran’s agriculture. Improving the resilience of climate depended socio-economic systems depends on understanding the climate change and it impacts. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to use available literature to develop a conceptual model to explain the link between climate change, poverty and vulnerability in developing countries including Iran. The conceptual model proposed by this study provides a clear and visual understanding of the processes involved. The phenomenon of climate change is happening and we will observe changes in average climatic conditions, climate variability, frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as heat stress, drought and flooding. The causal conditions of climate change are both natural and anthropogenic. The anthropogenic or human induced change is of great importance because they are responsible for unprecedented current and future climate change. Most predictive models indicate that the consequences of climate change for developing countries are increasing poverty and food insecurity. Historical analysis of Iran’s agricultural water resources indicated that the intrinsic sustainability of water resources has been lost and the country is facing water crisis. Farmers’ capacity for sustainable water management has reduced and it seems difficult for the waster system of the country to remain resilient. Population increase, decrease of per capita available water resources, reduction of possibility to increase cultivation area and increase in socioeconomic disparities will contribute to poverty and food insecurity. Therefore an integrated drought mitigation action plan is needed to improve the copying ability of agricultural socioeconomic systems of Iran.