The time variations of rainfall in the plains of Ardebil using statistical analysis with an emphasis on using Mann-Kendall

One of the current problems of climate change and the threat of human society and is considered a disaster for the planet the review and forecast its elements both in terms of water resource planning and for management of crisis situations is important. So to predict and estimate the rainfall for each area and watershed as one of the most important factors in use (model for operation) of water resources is considered.
One of the common methods for the analysis of time series Hydrometeorology, the presence or absence of the process in the time series using statistical tests. In this study, annual precipitation trends over the period 1377 to 1391 plain of Ardabil, using data from stations: Ardabil, Nir, Namin, Hare, Kolur non-parametric Mann-Kendall method of Ardabil with which one is the most common non-parametric methods, were studied.
The results of the annual climate and time change parameters of Ardabil Plain stations showed an annual precipitation data from 1383 have reduction mode And from this year onwards Ardabil plain stations of incremental changes to the show. And precipitation fluctuations in some great seasons at the same time, in winter precipitation in the eastern plains of Ardebil process and increase positive mood and a decrease in rainfall in the western desert state of Ardabil show.
To determine drought in the study area of the graph 3-year moving average data is used, Check the graph of the results obtained during the wet years 1998-2000-2002-2003-2004-2007 and 1999-2001-2005-2006 years because of the lower than average rainfall amounts reflect periods of drought in the region.