Presenting Iran's future higher education scenarios using fuzzy cognitive maps

The main purpose of this research was to identify the future drivers of higher education and to develop Iran’s future higher education scenarios in the horizon of the next 20 years. In order to achieve this goal, the initial list of key factors influencing the future of higher education in the country was obtained through the review of domestic literature and the study of higher education scenarios in some foreign countries. Asking thirteen experts in the field of higher education about how these factors are influence and being influenced, scenario axes were identified among the key factors and uncertainties. In the next step, using the fuzzy cognitive map sensitivity analysis process, the behavior of the key factors was evaluated for the different modes of the identified propulsion, and the narratives of the scenarios were developed. The output of this process involves identifying the factors of "globalization" and "higher education based on market demand" as the scenarios, and providing four scenarios for the future of higher education in the country. Each of these scenarios describes the various factors influencing the future of higher education, including higher education missions, financing, technology application, demographic changes, the need for higher education, globalization, and market demand. The main feature of this research is to provide a scenario look and make decision-making and planning capabilities possible due to different images that may occur in the future. At the end, based on the characteristics and conditions governing each scenario, a table of proposed policies for higher education is provided for each scenario.