The Effects of Climate Change on Cropping Pattern (Case Study: Mashhad Plain)

In recent decades Climate and its changes have become one of the world major issues and as one of the major environmental problems. Agricultural sector is one of the first areas affected by these changes because farmers are not able to control climatic conditions; however, management and change in factors such as crop cultivar and optimization of the cultivation pattern according to area climate can reduce the adverse effects on growth and yield of agricultural products and play a significant role in the sustainable production of foods. Therefore, in this research, the effects of climate change on cropping pattern in Mashhad have been investigated. The statistics and data needed for the research were collected through Mashhad Agriculture Jihad Organization, meteorology Organization, as well as in-person interviews with agriculture specialists and farmers in Mashhad. The results of this study show that rainfall level, maximum and minimum seasonal temperatures have increasing trend and these changes have a significant effect on the yield of crops in the region. Also, considering the climate change scenarios (to 2031) during the planting period of each studied product, their crop area values have been changed and farmers' gross margin increased by 1.6 percent compared to the base year (2014). Finally, the results of this study indicate that the greatest changes in yield due to climatic conditions are related to wheat and barley; therefore, it is necessary for policy makers to pay attention to this issue in order to reduce the risk of these products production and prevent from reduced production of these strategic crops.