An Integrated Model of Foresight Evaluation by Using Meta-Synthesis Method

Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Purpose

Foresight evaluation is a challenging task. In fact, this essay is mainly focused on "how to sketch out a dynamic and integration model of foresight by using a systematic approach".

Method

This study is a qualitative research and uses the Meta-synthesis method (Sandelowski & Barroso model); Articles published in the field of foresight evaluation in journals and international conferences held in Iran (1385-1396 Persian calendar) and in other countries (2000-2017 A.D.) are reviewed. In order to formulate the model 37 articles were selected by using Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) scale. Finally, to measure the validity of the model Kappa index was calculated by using the SPPSS software. Since the Kapa index is less than 0.05, it is a significance level. Taking this into account, the assumption reflecting the independence hypothesis of the extracted codes is rejected and the correlation is proved. The calculated value for Kapa index is tantamount to 0.7477 which doesn’t vary from the internationally recognized value.

Findings

The model is presented in the format of a dynamic model of integrated evaluation of foresight which consists of two levels: The first level which shapes the main part of the model, explains the mechanism of integration and dynamics in the evaluation of objectives, outcomes and impacts of foresight. The second level, putting a systematic approach into work, dividers the foresight evaluation into three distinct stages: (1) Pre-evaluation (input),(2)Evaluation(process) and(3)Post- evaluation(output).

Conclusion

According to the literature review, no comprehensive and integrated study has been done so far on the Foresight evaluation. The proposed model is the first foresight evaluation comprehensive model. Having applied a systematic approach, this model provides a dynamic and integrated evaluation of foresight.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Iran Futures Studies, Volume:5 Issue: 1, 2021
Pages:
271 to 303
https://www.magiran.com/p2213959  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Seyed Abbas Ebrahimi
    Corresponding Author (2)
    Assistant Professor public administration, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
    Ebrahimi، Seyed Abbas
  • Hossein Damghanian
    Author (3)
    Professor Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
    Damghanian، Hossein
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