Evaluating and predicting land use changes (Case study: Lahijan City)

In recent years, land use changes in different cities of Iran have caused problems such as rising earth temperatures, environmental pollution, declining agricultural lands, and so on. The increasing population of urban dwellers in Lahijan in recent decades has caused land use changes, and assessment of these changes in recent decades and predicting future changes is a necessity of the present study. By using remote sensing technology, the extent of land use changes can be examined. In this study, satellite images of Lahijan city from USGS site by using Landsat 5-TM satellite in May 1999, 2008 and Landsat 8-OLI satellite in May 2018, at intervals of about 10 years, have been prepared. Classification of satellite images has been done by using clustering method in GIS software. Then, the raster images are converted to vector images to calculate the cluster’s area. Finally, the forecast for land use changes in 2028 was done using the Markov chain model in TerrSet software. The comparison of the area of land cover and built environment areas in Markov's forecast for 2028 shows a significant increase in built environment compared to natural environment with land cover. The forecast shows that the area of built environment in Lahijan in 2028 is 1329 hectares and the area of land cover is 87 hectares.