Explain progressive scenarios for the future development of sustainable tourism in Gilan province

Nowadays foresight is widely used across an array of sciences, planning and policy makings. Scenario planning is one the methods of future studies- a tool for analyzing the policies, understanding the conditions, the threats, the needs and the superior values of the future. The purpose of this study is to identify the possible and probable scenarios for future development of sustainable tourism in Gilan province for the year 1425 landscape. By employing the Structural Analysis method, which is a widely accepted method for future study, the present study analyzes the components of sustainable tourism development in Gilan province using MicMac software. . To this end, 38 components have been extracted in four primary aspects from national documents and the related researches, and the cross-impact matrix has been formed using the opinions of 26 specialists and experts. Then, using Micmac software, twelve key drivers affecting sustainable tourism development in the province have been identified. . According to the scenario analyses, these factors lead to 36 possible conditions. The results of the Scenario Wizard software indicate that there are seven scenarios with strong compatibility that are more likely to occur in the future development of sustainable tourism in the province. The first scenario is the best promotor scenarios in the development of sustainable tourism in Gilan province. All of the elements in this scenario are following a positive trend and as time passes by, they can lead to positive changes in the development of sustainable tourism in Gilan province.