Development of a Hybrid Model of Dynamic Simulation Systems and Network Data Envelopment Analysis to Predict and Evaluate Services Supply Chain (Case Study of Hormozgan Social Security Branches)

The Social Security Organization is the main focus of insurance in the private sector and is the largest insurer and is one of the major economic institutions responsible for providing support to other economic, social and household institutions. Therefore, in order to provide optimal service in the social security organization, it is necessary to design and implement a system of performance evaluation of the appropriate supply chain. For this purpose, in this study, NDEA was used to evaluate the efficiency and performance of the service supply chain in the social security organization. Because conventional DEA models operate on historical information, their greatest weakness is to determine the efficiency of decision-making units in the past and do not provide a framework for the future, so to solve this problem in this study and to predict future inputs and outputs from the method Simulation of system dynamics is used. In order to show the theoretical findings of the new model presented in a practical way, the performance prediction and performance evaluation of 15 Hormozgan provincial social supply chain branches in three years from 95 to 97 have been discussed.Finally, the efficient and inefficient branches were identified.