Time Series model of fires forests and rangelands of Kermanshah province using MODIS data from 2002 to 2018

Examining and monitoring the history of changes in fire regimes in forests and pastures has a key role in the current and future planning of fire management in natural areas. The purpose of this study was to monitor the temporal changes of fire events in the past and the possibility of predicting future fire events using the time series model in Kermashah Province. For this purpose, MODIS time series data of fire events were collected from 2002 to 2018. Then an appropriate time series model was used to predict fire events. The results showed that the incidence of fire in the forests and pastures of Kermashah during the study period had a slight but significant upward trend. It was also observed seasonality in fire events and the maximum incidents in the forests and rangelands of Kermanshah occurred in late summer and early autumn, respectively. Considering the seasonality of fire events and the model fit criteria, the seasonal ARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was selected and the results showed that the model had an acceptable validity for furcating the future fire events. According to the forecast, the incidence of fires will relatively increase in both forests and rangelands compared to previous years with a relative statistical confidence of 98%. The results of this study, which showed the general trend, seasonality and the possibility of predicting fires, can be considered as a good solution in proper planning for fire management in forests and pastures.