Analysis of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Forecasting Short-Term and Long-Term Activities the Industrial Sector during the Period 1991 to 2020 in Iran

Today, the economic policymakers of every country take advantage of every effort to achieve a high growth rate, however, attention to the extent to which economic uncertainties and fluctuations affect the development of various economic sectors, has received less attention from government officials. In this regard, in the present study to of macroeconomic uncertainty on forecasting short-term and long-term activities the industrial sector during the period 1991 to 2020 in Iran, Has been analyzed. This research is an applied research in terms of purpose and is in the group of descriptive-correlational research. It is also a cross-sectional research from a temporal perspective. In order to investigate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the forecast of future activities of the real sector of the economy, the method of Junttila and Vataja (2018) was followed and in order to analyze the data, the ARDL (determining the long run relationship between series with different order of integration) method was used. The results show that the macroeconomic uncertainty variable in the short and long term has a significant effect on the logarithm variable value of the industrial production index.