Determinants of The Intention of Rural Households in Urmia Lake Basin to Migrate

Drought as a natural shock can potentially reduce the livelihood and well-being of rural households and encourage them to migrate from the Villages. The possible drought of Lake Urmia along with the drought will intensify the phenomenon of migration of villagers. Having a correct understanding and insight of this issue will play an important role in policy making. This descriptive and correlational study was conducted to design a model of effective factors in the migration intention of farmers in the Urmia Lake Basin. The statistical population was all rural households in East and West Azerbaijan provinces, 495 of which were selected and studied by multi-stage random sampling. The research instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by experts of Zanjan University and Urmia Lake Studies Research Institute and its reliability was obtained by conducting a pretest and calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient greater than 0.7 for composite indices. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the tendency of men to work migration is the most important factor in the tendency of households to migrate. Having a house in the city, understanding the risk of the lake drying up on family life, share of income from the agricultural sector were other factors affecting household migration. Understanding the risk of lake drying on rural life, the percentage of income from agriculture, the amount of social capital, attitudes toward drought and its management were also factors influencing men's willingness to migrate. Given the important role of earning income and employment of men in the family, proper government policy in creating employment for villagers and starting non-agricultural businesses have an important role in preventing the migration of villagers in the region.