The effect of health sector evolution plan on the prevalence of cesarean and vaginal delivery in public hospitals in Kermanshah province: an interrupted time series analysis (2009-2019)

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of health sector evolution plan (HSEP) on the prevalence of cesarean section and vaginal delivery in public hospitals in Kermanshah province.

In the present study, cesarean section (C-section) and vaginal delivery data were collected and evaluated in 17 public hospitals from 2009 to 2019. The main variables of this study included the prevalence of C-section and the prevalence of vaginal delivery for 121 months, both were obtained by dividing the number of deliveries by C-section and vaginal delivery by the total number. Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine the effect of HSEP on the prevalence of cesarean and vaginal delivery rates.

The prevalence of C-section before and after the HSEP was 42.5% and 43.2%, respectively. Months before the intervention, the rate of C-section was increasing by 0.13%, which was statistically significant. In the first month after the intervention, the prevalence of     C-section decreased by 3.6% that was statistically significant. The share of C-section in the months after the implementation of the HSEP showed a monthly increase of 0.12% compared to before the intervention, which was statistically significant.

The results of the study showed that the HSEP has led to a significant reduction in C-section in short term, but in the months after the implementation of the plan, the prevalence of C-section has increased again.