Determinants of generational and periodic changes of marriage in Iran

Considering changes to the age structure of the population and macro-level socioeconomic transformations that Iran has experienced, marriage trends between different periods and generations are expected to go along with a change. This paper aims to examine periodic and generational changes in marriage and the determinants of marriage probability over the last four decades using the multilevel age-period-cohort method. For this purpose, the data from the Households Income and Expenditure Survey were analyzed. The findings showed that in both sexes, younger cohorts delay their marriage compared to the older ones and hence marry at older ages. The percentage of married women in all cohorts is higher than men until 35 years, but at older ages, there is an opposite tendency. Periodic trends confirm these results. The age-period-cohort analysis reveals women marry earlier than men in all periods and cohorts, but the marriage probability among them is less than men. Tertiary education and employment are found to be crucial variables in reducing the probability of marriage in different periods and cohorts but their impacts are varied in two sexes. The breadwinner male model of the Iranian family i.e., employment has led to the increase in marriage probability of men but at the same time decrease the women’s marriage probability. Given the expansion of higher education and the prolongation of the education period, it is expected that in case of lack of appropriate policies and programs for youth, the delay in marriage with continue. In this way, planners need to take into account the changes that have taken place at family and community levels over the past decades in their policies.