Analysis the Trend of Changes in Agricultural Development among Provinces

Planning for spatial agricultural development and formulating future scenarios for regional development in the agricultural sector requires understanding the trend of changes in agricultural development differences among provinces. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the trend of changes in agricultural development among provinces. In this regard, by compiling 49 indicators of agricultural development and using data from the two periods of 2011 and 2019, the trend of agricultural development in 31 provinces was evaluated. The methodology of this research is based on combining a set of individual indicators in the final composite indicator based on weighting by principal component analysis method and calculating the deviation from the optimal value. Finally, ArcGIS10.2 software were applied to level the provinces. The results showed that in both 2011 and 2019, the provinces of Gilan, Fars, Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi and Tehran were ranked at the first 5 provinces, while in 2011, Semnan, Zanjan, Kurdistan, Hormozgan and Bushehr provincesand in 2019, Bushehr, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Ilam, Hormozgan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces were in the last ranks, respectively. In addition, agricultural development in most provinces has decreased in 2019 compared to 2011. Based on the findings of leveling the provinces three levels of agricultural development including low, medium and high were identified. Hence, the agricultural sector and its development should be taken more into consideration by policy makers, planners and those in charge of the country's development, particularly in provinces with a low level of development.