The impact of economic indicators on drug trafficking in Iran

Cultivation, production and trafficking of narcotics has become one of the most important challenges and threats in the world today, because the adverse consequences of the production and trade of this deadly opioid substance, despite challenging the economic development of countries, still threaten the health of society. It makes people vulnerable and leads them to death and nothingness. Drug trafficking as an undesirable social phenomenon has several economic and social causes, and due to the importance of the issue of crime in different countries, in recent years, extensive studies have been conducted to identify and explain the causes.

The present study is of analytical, inferential, analytical-survey type and is applied based on design and modeling. The statistical population of the present study is statistics and data related to economic indicators and drug trafficking in Iran during the years 2007 to 2016. Statistics of detainees in the field of drug trafficking, whose information was recorded in the anti-narcotics police system and the NAJA Deputy for Planning and Budget, and data related to economic indicators were obtained from the Statistics Center of Iran. In this study, using the effect of dynamic spatial regression (spatial-temporal autoregressive), the effect of economic indicators on the rate of drug trafficking in Iran was analyzed. In this regard, R software has been used to analyze and estimate the parameters in the model.

The obtained results show that in the period under study, among the 5 variables of unemployment, per capita income, Gini coefficient, Kakovani coefficient, industrialization, three variables of unemployment rate, Kakovani coefficient and industrialization are among the important and influential variables on drug trafficking in Has been a country.

Based on the research results, it was found that a one percent increase in unemployment rate variables leads to a 24 percent increase in drug trafficking rates; And a one percent increase in the industrialization index reduces the drug trafficking rate by about 22 percent. Also, the Kakwani coefficient of 17% had a negative effect on drug trafficking, in other words, the lower the poverty rate in the society, the lower the 17% decrease in drug trafficking.