Spatial Distribution and Analysis of Villages on the threshold of Evacuation in Khorasan Razavi Province During 1986-2016 Period

Inevitably, inconsideration of the population evacuation of villages can have irreparable consequences for the human settlements. Analysis and identification of the qualities of this issue can greatly help planners and decisionmakers in the spatial planning domain to prevent full evacuation of population from rural settlements. The study at hand was an applied research project done using descriptive-analytical approach. The statistical population comprised of villages with less than 100 residents in Khorasan Razavi province from 1986 to 2016. Moran’s local spatial analysis was used to investigate the spatial dimensions, and arithmetic mean and skewed distribution were used to examine the direction and range of distribution. The results showed that in the 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016 censuses, 92.2, 90.1, 94.8, and 79.9 percent of the villages evacuated in the previous decade have had lower than 100 residents. The results of Moran’s spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that the distribution pattern of villages on the threshold of evacuation during these three decades is cluster-like. Moreover, the results of arithmetic mean and skewed distribution indicated that 68 percent of the villages that are on the threshold of population evacuation are within the oval domain, and except for the 1986-1996 period – when the distribution direction of villages on the threshold of evacuation has been northwest-southeast, the direct has been northeast-southwest from 1996 to 2016.