Trend Analysis and Change Points in Stream Flow of Gorganrood Watershed

Trend analysis of stream flow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Therefore, the present study investigated river flow variations during three decades as well as projections of future discharge in the Gorganrood watershed. The Man-Kendall method has been used to detect the trend and methods of Pettitt, SNHT, and Buishand to identify points of a sudden change in discharge time series in 8 stations of Aq Qala, Galikesh, Gonbad, Haji Ghoshan, Nodeh, Ramyan, Sadgorgan, and Tamar. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed the existence of a significant negative trend (flow reduction) on a daily and annual scale in all stations. Monthly, the strongest negative trend in Aq Qala, Galikesh, Gonbad, Haji Ghoshan, and Ramyan stations was related to July, but in Nodeh and Tamar stations, it was related to August and February, respectively. A decreasing trend was observed in all stations on a seasonal scale, but this trend was not significant in some seasons. The results of the analysis of change points in discharge showed that the change points in the data used in this study are more of a decreasing and in some cases incremental type and some stations, no change points have been identified at all. Therefore, the number of decreasing changes in the studied hydrometric stations is significantly higher than the incremental changes and is more visible from 1993 to 1997 and 2005-2007 in three and four stations, respectively. Also, the most incremental changes among the stations are related to the Aq Qala station in 2017 with a flow rate of 234 cubic meters per second. Investigation of the flow of the basin in the past decades showed significant monotonic and abrupt changes which are mostly toward decreasing the basin’s discharge. The downward trend in discharge values at different time scales for all hydrometric stations of the Gorganrood watershed, which will be more severe in the future due to global climate change, and increasing the region's water needs for various future use due to population growth and the expansion of industries can also be considered as a serious warning for policymakers, planners, and local managers to prevent a possible water crisis in the region in the future with proper planning.