Identifying the drivers affecting the future of virtual social networks in the face of mass media

This study seeks to identify the effective drives that can impact the future of online social networks in the face of Iranian mass media on the horizon of 1404. The research method is a combination of quantitative and qualitative, which has been done using Futuristic Research Method. This is a des[1]criptive and exploratory research with the approach of identifying uncertainties. In this regard, a total of 20 experts and specialists in the field of media, communications and online social networks, who were selected by the Snowballing method, took part in the in-depth interviews. In this study, the Delphi Method was used to identify the motives, using SPSS software, and the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used to discover the final key factors affecting the future of social networks. The data collection tool in the structural interpretive modeling section includes a researcher-made questionnaire containing a table of interaction matrix, and the data were analyzed by MicMac software. The research's findings showed that 27 drivers have an impact on the future of social networks, which can be classified into four general sociocultural, political/legal, economic and technological factors.  According to the research's findings, technology-based affairs, digital natives, media ownership and the power of large-scale traditional media are the four final key factors influencing the future of social networks in the face of Iranian mass media on the horizon of 1404.