Identifying factors affecting business cycles in Iran's economy: quantile regression approach

The trend of Iran's GDP in the last four decades has faced several shocks due to the revolution, the outbreak of war, the imposition of international sanctions and the spread of the Covid-19 disease, which had a decisive role in its direction. In this study, the influencing factors on business cycles in Iran were examined with the quantile regression approach for the time period of 1982-2022 and the results showed that Iran's economy has gone through about 4 business cycles during this time period. From the years 1980 to 1983, 1989 to 1993, 2001 to 2008 and 2015 to 2017, there have been periods of prosperity, as well as the periods of 1982 to 1985, 1991 to 2000, 2011 to 2015, and 2017 to 2020. that with the intensification and application of new sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the emergence of the Corona pandemic in Iran from 2018 to 2020, Iran's economy has entered a period of rapid recession. And the results of applying the ARDL method show the negative effect of labor productivity variables, employment rate and foreign trade on business cycles. And the positive impact of final consumption expenditures , oil revenues and sanctions on business cycles (leading to the aggravation of economic recession) has been, Also, the results of the test of the effects of the variables on the symmetry and asymmetry of the cycles showed that the effects of these variables on the business cycles were symmetrical.