نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پیاپی 11، تابستان 1402)

The increase in concentration in the banking sector, along with the problems of the recent financial and economic crises, has shown the importance of banking regulations against the high risk caused by the imbalance in the banks' balance sheets and one of the basic measures in the development of banks is to increase the efficiency of these financial institutions. Therefore, efficiency in banks always has been a matter of attention, and the weakness of the banking system can be a serious threat to the stability of the macro economy. In this way, banks with their credit operations and financing for different economic sectors, they provide suitable conditions for investment and cause the increase and growth of capital and finally the national production. The aim of the current research is to inter temporal relationship between risk, capital and efficiency in Iran's banking system. For this purpose, the data of Iran's commercial and specialized banks have been collected during the years 2006 to 2019 and to evaluate the model, In order to measure the model, the efficiency of banks has been estimated using the stochastic frontier model (SFA), Then, the relationship between risk, efficiency and capital is investigated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) approach. In total, the obtained results show the existence of a relationship between capital and efficiency with risk. The results indicated that with the increase in the capital ratio, the risk of banks decreases and also increasing efficiency increases risk, also with the increase in the internal rate of return of banks, the capital ratio increases and Increasing the size of the bank increases efficiency.

The banking industry is considered one of the most important sectors of the country's economy, which can provide grounds for the growth and prosperity of the economy by organizing and properly managing its resources and expenses. Bank stability is important from different perspectives. Banking stability can indicate the structure of banking resources and the financing of bank assets.According to the literature of banking health and stability, basic capital can help banks to compensate for financial losses, and capital can be a factor that reduces the transmission of shocks and reduces the risk of banks' lending process. Although monetary and credit policies are a tool to stabilize the real sector of the economy and achieve sustainable economic growth, it is approved by the general economists and policy makers. However, macroeconomic shocks also affect the stability of the banking system. In this research, an attempt is made to use A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach, with a relatively small scale, to evaluate macroeconomic shocks on banking stability. Recent studies indicate an increase in attention to models in which a wide range of economic information is used in their design. This has been made possible by supplementing traditional VAR models by using one or more factors. The impact of macroeconomic shocks on asset return variables, return volatility and bank capital have been investigated from bank stability Indicators. The results obtained, shock Inflation and exchange rate create a wave-like effect in the banking sector, which lasts for about 5 years in the banking sector, and on the other hand, the effect of inflation on this sector is longer and more lasting than the impact of the exchange rate shock

Preservation and revitalization of historical neighborhoods is considered one of the necessities of urban tourism development as a valuable heritage from the past and a part of the historical identity of human societies, which leads to the vitality of the city in the direction of sustainable tourism development. Therefore, the urban tourism approach of historical neighborhoods is effective in preserving and revitalizing the historical context, as well as economic benefits and sustainable incomes. This article deals with determining the economic value of Golan historical neighborhood in Hamadan city. The research method is applied and descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of the research is the tourists of Golan historical quarter, which was randomly surveyed from 347 people in the form of a questionnaire. Also, by using 4 models and multi-level sequential logistic method, the factors and their effect on various types of payment tendencies have been calculated. Due to the tendency to pay at different levels, the use of this method can measure the effective factors with higher accuracy. Also, the error in the stated information, if any, has less effect on the output of the model in this method than normal regression. The results show that the willingness to make a one-time payment is 40 thousand tomans and the willingness to pay annually and also to protect and prevent its destruction in the form of a per capita tax is 24 thousand tomans. Also, interest in visiting historical neighborhoods, education and employment have been identified as the most important influencing factors. The results of the conditional one-time payment model also show that education, interest and the number of annual visits are the factors that influence the approval or rejection of the payment request of the set limit (35,000 Tomans).

The trend of Iran's GDP in the last four decades has faced several shocks due to the revolution, the outbreak of war, the imposition of international sanctions and the spread of the Covid-19 disease, which had a decisive role in its direction. In this study, the influencing factors on business cycles in Iran were examined with the quantile regression approach for the time period of 1982-2022 and the results showed that Iran's economy has gone through about 4 business cycles during this time period. From the years 1980 to 1983, 1989 to 1993, 2001 to 2008 and 2015 to 2017, there have been periods of prosperity, as well as the periods of 1982 to 1985, 1991 to 2000, 2011 to 2015, and 2017 to 2020. that with the intensification and application of new sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the emergence of the Corona pandemic in Iran from 2018 to 2020, Iran's economy has entered a period of rapid recession. And the results of applying the ARDL method show the negative effect of labor productivity variables, employment rate and foreign trade on business cycles. And the positive impact of final consumption expenditures , oil revenues and sanctions on business cycles (leading to the aggravation of economic recession) has been, Also, the results of the test of the effects of the variables on the symmetry and asymmetry of the cycles showed that the effects of these variables on the business cycles were symmetrical.

Improvement in human capital is considered as a critical catalyst to economic growth and development in the macroeconomic literature. Specifically, the neoclassical endogenous growth model posits that, growth in human capital impacts positively on output per worker in the long run. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment and government health expenditure on population health in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1974-2021. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in foreign direct investment and government health expenditure on population health showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, positive and significant. At the same time, there is a positive and significant relationship between trade openness and population health in the long run. Also, the results showed that there is no significant relationship between the relevant variables and the health of the population in the short run. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment and government health expenditure on population health in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1974-2021. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in foreign direct investment and government health expenditure on population health showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, positive and significant. At the same time, there is a positive and significant relationship between trade openness and population health in the long run. Also, the results showed that there is no significant relationship between the relevant variables and the health of the population in the short run.

Since the financial crisis in 2007, shadow banking has been recognized as the cause of the crisis in the world. This article empirically analysis the relationship between shadow banking and the implementation of monetary policy in Iran by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method. This study shows that shadow banking is growing rapidly in Iran, and due to lack of activity within the framework of Central Bank regulations, it can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policies. In order to investigate the role of shadow banking, the effects of monetary policy shock have been investigated in two different scenarios. In both cases of expansionary monetary policy or contraction monetary policy, with the scenario of considering shadow banking in the economy, disruptive effects on growth and inflation variables were observed. So that with the application of expansionary monetary policy, the production changes after a period become negative, and with the application of contraction monetary policy, taking shadow banking into account, the amount of reduction in production and the general level of prices occurs to a lesser extent, and in fact The effects of the contraction policy have been reduced. In the model after tightening monetary policy, regular banks reduce the amount of loans on their balance sheet while shadow banks increase lending. This reduces the real effects of the shock, but at the same time shadow banks amplify the reaction of key variables to real shocks and can make the financial sector and the whole economy more unstable and take the economy out of the path of stability and development