The trend of marriage, childbearing, and divorce and its determinants of socio-economic factors on divorce in Yazd province 2016-2021: A cross-sectional study

In recent decades, family and their stability as an important social institution have changed significantly.

This study aimed to investigate the marriage trends, childbearing, and divorce changes in Yazd province from 2016-2021 to estimate the effect of socioeconomic factors on divorce.

Cross-sectional study was done in 2 phases. In first phase, an ecological (time trend) was conducted to investigate the 5 yr trend in the occurrence of marriage, childbearing, and divorce, as well as the factors affecting the occurrence of divorce in second phase. For second phase of study 600 participants were selected. 300 divorce and 300 married applicants were chosen between 2016 and 2021. Binary logistic regression model was used to find the related factors affecting the occurrence of divorce.

The results showed a declining marriage (p = 0.05) and childbearing trend (p = 0.84), as well as an increasing trend in divorces (p = 0.02) in Yazd. Logistic regression analysis showed that college education (OR = 0.22, CI: 0.116-0.430, p < 0.001) and being self-employed (OR = 0.48, CI: 0.255-0.934, p = 0.03) could reduce the odds of divorce. In addition, nonresidents (OR = 2.1, CI: 1.314-3.562, p < 0.001), with > 10-yr age differences (OR = 3.8, CI: 1.803-8.213, p < 0.001) or the woman being older than her husband (OR = 3.4, CI: 1.981-5.848, p < 0.001) could increase the odds of divorce.

Our results confirmed that a combination of socioeconomic characteristics affects the stability of family institutions.