Spatial Modeling of the Spread of the Coronavirus due to the Mobility and Displacement of People (Case Study: Tehran Metropolis)

The effect of displacement on the spread of viruses is a very important issue that has been studied by different societies in order to identify the factors influencing the spread of the disease. The use of spatial statistical models is one of the most recent modeling of how the virus spreads in the regions of a city or country based on location data, and one of the most important features of these models is localization based on the relationship between data. The location of people infected with the virus and local explanatory variables affecting the spread of the virus. In this study, in the first step, among the 12 available explanatory variables, 1795 spatial models were built using the exploratory regression method, so based on that spatial dependence, collinearity of the explanatory variables are considered, and finally, 5 variables that have the least linear and spatial correlation And also, they had the most effect on the spread of the disease and were selected to continue the modeling. In the second step, in order to model the effect of the identified variables on the spread of the coronavirus, three location-based statistical models, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) were used. The results of the study showed that the amount of movement, the population of elderly people in each traffic area and then the number of cars per household has the greatest impact on the spread of the coronavirus. Also, by creating severe restrictions on travel in polluted traffic areas in order to cut off the chain of transmission to other areas, as well as reducing the amount of travel in other areas, such as virtual education in schools and universities and remote work in offices, it can have a significant impact in 6 months. to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. At the end of the study, 3 scenarios were proposed to prevent the spread of the virus in critical conditions for 22 areas of Tehran and 603 traffic areas.