The assessment of relation between lipid distribution and weight change with diabetes incidence in a group of Tehran, district 13 population

Obesity is one of the known risk factors of diabetes. Nowadays in parallel with industrialization of societies, changes in lifestyle and diet habits and also decreased physical activity, the prevalence of obesity is increasing. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of change in body weight on blood glucose disorders rate after 3 years of Tehran lipid and glucose study.

Demographic indices and fasting blood glucose levels and 2 hours after ingestion of 75 g of oral glucose in 3957 individuals over 20 years of age participating in Tehran lipid and glucose study were registered at first step (1378-79) and then 3 years later (1381-82). According to body mass index, changes in body weight, and also 5 percentile changes in waist circumference and 5 percentile changes in waist to hip circumference ratio from first to second step, individuals were divided into different groups and after modification for age, sex and family history of diabetes, the relative risks of blood glucose disorders in relation to their changes were measured.

After 3 years of follow up 148 (3.7%) individuals affected by diabetes, majority of them were changed from pre-diabetes to diabetes. In individuals with normal blood glucose levels, after modification for age, sex, family history of diabetes and base body mass index, the relative risk of pre-diabetes and diabetes in the 4-10% increased weight group in relation to the steady weight group was 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1-1.53), in >10% increased weight group was 1.3 (95% CI: 1.04-1.86), and in > 4% decreased weight group was 0.4 (95% CI: 0.27-0.65). Increasing relative risk with regarding to base body mass index in pre-diabetics was only seen in obese individuals (2.7, 95% CI: 1.49-4.78). The effect of waist circumference and waist to hip circumference ratio changes on relative risk of diabetes incidence was not significant in any group.

The body mass index and weight increase are independent risk factors for blood glucose disorders incidence.