نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال نهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 17، بهار و تابستان 1399)

Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant aims of flood vulnerabilityassessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical conceptions of flood vulnerabilityand the daily administrative process. Flood vulnerability is complex and has a wide range depending on variousphenomena such as rainfall, runoff concentration and high exposure of the flooding downstream areas. Floodvulnerability changes over time and shifts its location due to natural conditions, human activities, and damagesthe culture of the community at risk. Tehran city has experienced various life and property damages because ofhigh varieties in the socio-economic and the life quality level in regions as well as structural varieties in the cityfabric. In this study, the blocks with weak texture, population density, land use, bridge, and slope and drainagedensity are defined as elements at risk for assessing the patterns of vulnerability between districts No. 10 and 22of Tehran. Prioritization and relationship among these variables as well as vulnerability were examined throughAnalytic Hierarchy Process; based on expert opinions creating a matrix with 6×6 dimensions to determine thevariables’ relative weight and vulnerability map. According to the results of relative weights, population densityof 0.3825 and drainage density of 0.0428 were revealed to be the highest and lowest relative weights respectively.The obtained vulnerability values from AHP method for districts No. 10 and 22 showed numbers 7.8 and 2.6 respectively.Tehran flood vulnerability has Multiple-scale analysis due to the amount of change or destruction ofthe urban natural watercourse, kind of land use, various densities of urban fabric and non-uniform distribution ofpopulation, as well as the socio-economic level and quality of life in urban neighborhoods.

Forest fire has many side effects on forest and land function. Among them are loss of biodiversity, reduction of economicvalue of forests and climate change in large scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in forest firespotentials. To achieve this goal, the required digital layers and data were obtained from the relevant websites and organizationsas well s through field surveys in the area of the study. After preparing the data by assuming the occurred fire, thelayers were entered in a fuzzy process using Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Ordered Weighted Average (OWA)method. For this purpose, Zagros fire forests (Lordegan city) were examined using Landsat and MODIS images and consideringthe factors affecting fire (topographical factors, human, climate and vegetation). In ANP procedure, the largestweighs were assigned to the distance of residential areas from roads, GVMI index and maximum daily air temperaturefactors in their magnitude order. OWA method was also used to create the hazard prediction model. Based on the results,the fire hazard map was prepared in four classifications: very low, low, medium, and high. An accuracy assessment wasalso performed using the relative operating characteristics. Of the six scenarios applied, the low-risk scenario and a smallcompensation amount of ROC = 0.702 were evaluated as the best model to predict the risk of forest fires. Due the highaccuracy and precision of the model obtained, it can be used to contain the fires that will occur in the future.

Crisis is an inevitable fact of the human’s life. Fortunately, science and technology development has highlycontributed to the reduction of losses and casualties, but it has not reduced the happenings or damages to zero.Crisis management is mentioned as one of the most important scientific-practical issues nowadays that everycountry stray toward it. This paper targeted the response phase of crisis management that is considered as the mostimportant crisis management phase. The basic operations such as relief and rescue, evacuation of the injured andvictims, and relief commodities distribution are carried out in this phase. In this study, the locating of temporarydepots and routing of vehicles were taken into account by considering the reliability of the roads and allocatingthe distribution centers. The model is multi-objective and aimed at achieving the following goals: 1) Minimizingthe maximum shortage of the disaster points. 2) Minimizing the maximum time of the vehicles by considering thevelocity and normal speed of vehicles. The proposed method augmented Epsilon Constraint generalized modelfor Case study in Sichuan, China. The results showed the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed modelwas reliable for product distribution centers and making decisions about allocation and assignment of temporaryaccommodation centers in different parts of logistics network in conditions of crisis .

Effluent of wastewater treatment plants as an alternative water source in many applications and restrict the uncontrolledexploitation of high-quality water resources. Before the design and implementation of wastewater treatment plants, youshould use the methods based on scientific reasonable assumptions to determine an appropriate process of treatment. Theaim of this study is to select the optimal wastewater treatment process in an industrial research complex using multi-criteriaanalysis. The present study used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select the optimal process of human’s wastewatertreatment plant and processes such as Septic tanks, stabilization ponds, aerated lagoons, activated sludge, tricklingfilter and MBBR were assessed technically, operationally, economically and environmentally. The results showed that theMBBR process, activated sludge, trickling filter, septic tanks, aerated lagoons and stabilization ponds with final weightsof 0.280, 0.197, 0.162, 0.133, 0.116 and 0.112 were ranked first to sixth respectively. The sensitivity analysis also showedthat the changes in weight of AHP criteria don’t show significant changes in the final result and MBBR process has beenin first place almost in all modes unless the relative weight of economic and environmental criteria are replaced. In thiscase, Septic tanks were slightly higher than MBBR. According to the results, the highest priority of treatment processesbelonged to MBBR.

Bridges are one of the key elements in a country’s transportation network; thus, they are the first targets of exsplosiveattacks on transport infrastructure. Destruction of bridges in a network leads to a significant reduction in access andlatency in the transmission. In order to counteract and mitigate the consequences of these types of threats, it is essentialto meet the requirements for designing and constructing optimal structures resistant to explosive waves. Despite the risingnumber of such threats every day around the world, there has been very limited research on the risk assessment of thebridge. In this research, along with a review of a variety of risk assessment methods, the method proposed in the FEMA452 instructionwas selected due to its rationale, comprehensiveness and ease of use. In order to determine the importanceof vulnerable bridges, a questionnaire was developed based on FEMA criteria and was made available to experts. In thisquestionnaire, network threats were first identified and ranked, and then, the value of bridge assets was investigated andthe probable vulnerability was calculated in each threat scenario. In order to evaluate the results, one of the bridges ofDorood-Khorramabad railway route was selected as the case study and risk calculations were made on its components.The results of the analyses revealed the risk number of 250 as the threshold for identifying assets of high and ultra highrisks. Accordingly, the deck and column introduced the highest risk number by applying the coefficient of threat, assetvalue, and vulnerability. In order to analyze the breakdown of the bridge due to the explosion, version 15 of ANSYS software was used. In thisregard, the bridge was modeled and the assets with a higher risk than the specified value were subjected to the loadsof explosion of different values of the TNT. Then, the bridge behavior of the overall stability and concrete damage wasnoticed. By reviewing the results of modeling, solutions to reduce the risk of explosive threats have been presented, whichwill help to continue the service of the bridge in the time of crises.

This paper deals with examining the locations of crisis relief zone for events of disruption and crisis to presenta new modeling for it. Due to limited resources in such situations, it may be impossible for rescue teams tovisit all the places; therefore, people in rural areas need to travel to the cities for seeking essential commodities.Cities should be located in an accessible distance for rural areas. The goal of this paper is to develop a Hamiltoniantour on a subset of cities located at the shortest distance in order to cover all affected rural areas during disaster. Agenetic algorithm was proposed to solve the large-scale problems. In order to validate the proposed model, threesmall-scale problems were solved and the associated results were compared with optimum solutions obtainedby GAMS software. The obtained results indicated that the proposed algorithm was efficient and convergent tooptimal solutions. In addition, the corresponding covering tour problem and traveling salesmen problem weresolved by the proposed algorithm. The comparison of results indicated that the covering tour problem was moreefficient. Also, the sensitivity analysis was conducted for the covering tour problem identifying essential conditionsof using the covering problem for crisis relief problems.

Today, natural disaster is threatening the lives of people and their assets and properties.Relief supply chain is the most agile and dynamic supply chain. Indeed, the pivotal role of relief supply chainhas been identified in responding to crises and reducing the burden on humans. In this regard, the goal of allocatingand locating issues is to allow each injured person to receive the services and goods from the distributioncenters according to demand, and suppliers will also provide goods and services for the distribution centers. Thepresent study tried to provide a mathematical model for the problem of allocating earthquake victims to existingand potential hospitals using ultra-innovative algorithms. For this purpose, first, the design of its mathematicalmodel and its innovation aimed at minimizing the costs of establishing potential hospitals, sending injured peopleand sending services and goods from suppliers to hospitals. Then, the validation and accuracy of the mathematicalmodel were evaluated using Gamz software. In the next step, acceptable results were obtained with codingin MATLAB, using fire suppression algorithms and optimizing particle swarm. After the efficiency was established,the problem test was used for the data in order to compare the algorithms. Finally, it was identified thatthe particle swarm optimization algorithm was superior to the firewall algorithm in both runtime and cost values.

Today, organizational resilience and its measurement is viewed as an organizational strategy. Nonetheless , our country‘s news agencies are not particularly keen to look at this strategic paradigm despite the existence of vast natural hazardsaround them, since there are no measurable indicators to manage their resileince regarding their differences with businessorganizations. Hence , this paper was carried out with the aim of providing resilience assessment indexes of iranian newsagencies in natural disasters and determining the importance of each of these indices using Delphi method. In the firstround of Delphi, 15 experts of the field were deeply interviwed to extract indices. As a result, extraction of 71 sub-indexes,14 indexes and 5 dimensions were based on two steps of coding: open and axial. BAsd on the extracted sub-indices, questionnaireswere developd for a second and third rounds Delphi to examine the consensus among experts on the “The Needfor Each Sub-Indicator” and “The Importance of Each of them”. The results showed the consensus of exprts on applying70 sub-indicators in the form of 14 indicators and 5 dimensions of “Communication Resilience”, “Information Resilience”,“Structural Resilience”, “Individual Resilience” and “Organizational-Technical” to assess the rsileince of our country’snews agencies in natural disasters. With a comprehnsive consideration of the organizational dimensions of Iranian newsagencis, these 70 sub-indexes have been proposed in such a way that they can address the resilience, simultaneous resilienceand retrospective resilience for news agencies in natural disasters.

Often, organizations are facing different challenges in achieving individual or organizational goals; hence, they experiencecrisis. Crises cause a disruption in organizations. In this regard, the organizations’ management needs a specific tool toovercome the crises. In all organizations, human capital is a common asset that helps the management in dealing with the crisis.Human capital management is an important factor in gaining competitive advantage and human capital development is amongthe mechanisms applied to create a competitive advantage in the organizations’ business. In response to the needs and strategic alignments of organizations and using necessary arrangements, human resource developmentis a process that provides the conditions to activate the potential competencies and talents of employees to be appliedto realize the organizations’ goals. The present study attempted to identify and determine the indicators and components ofhuman capital development in crisis management in the Iranian National Tax Administration. Using the opinions of organizationaland academic experts and literature revies, five components of individual development were identified: socio-culturaldevelopment, professional development, management development and organizational development. Also, 19 indicators of humancapital development in crisis management were determined. Individual component has indicators of motivation, creativityand problem solving. The component of social-cultural development has the following indicators: cardimitism, persuasion,public relations, culture building, working relationships and information distribution; the component of professional developmenthas indicators of education, Job knowledge and empowerment. The component of managerial development has indicatorsof monitoring, control, planning and leadership; the organizational development component has the indicators of participation,continuous evaluations, organizational learning, and meritocracy.

Today, the crisis of the meaning of place interpreted as the crisis of the social meaning of space and time, is one of the moststriking problems of contemporary urbanization. Certainly, without a pre-defined urban management and allocating therequired facilities corresponding to the requirements of time, urban spaces cannot function in determining the identity of humanbeings. Readiness and recognition of crisis is one of the important tasks of management, but the prediction of a crisis ismore important because without the power of predicting prospective potential crises, it will be the crisis that will control andpull us to some dangerous points. As in the field of urban studies, crisis management has so far focused on the quantitative andmaterial problems caused by floods, earthquakes and wars, and the spiritual crises have been neglected. One of these spiritualwhich leads to many crises is the crisis of place. Therefore, given the comprehensive developments of the information ageand the necessity of coordinating with this global movement as well as the importance of the meaning of the place as one of themost important qualitative variables in the environment, it is of significant importance to conduct research in investigatingand identifying the effects of cyberspace on perception of and attachment to place. The present study is an attempt to evaluateand assess the role of using cyberspace in the components effective on urban crisis management in terms of place. Accordingly,the four components called physical, individual, social and functional have been formulated to test the cases studies oftwo spaces: traditional and modern urban spaces. This study is an example of applied and descriptive-analytical research interms of purpose and nature respectively. According to the results, the user’s share of cyberspace revealed that the physicalcomponent has the highest and the individual component has the least correlation with the user’s use of cybercafe. Regardingthese results, it is possible to prevent the crisis of the meaning of place through organizing and managing urban crisis consideringthe components and factors effective on the meaning of place.

The main aim of earthquake crisis management in rural areas is to prevent the occurrence, reduce its effects and controlthe consequences by combining different structural and non-structural approaches. In this regard, the component skillis very important. The present study has used both qualitative and quantitative methods to assess the level and condition ofearthquake risk management skills among local managers and rural households in Qazvin. The present research tried to investigate the status of earthquake skills among local managers and rural households inQazvin. To collect the required data, 29 villages, 29 local and rural councils (Islamic councils of rural areas) and 386households’ supervisors, out of 2537 rural households, were selected. The results of data analysis through the quantitative methods, especially SWOT method, revealed that skill in generaland skill in specific (proper linkage between foundations and building walls, proper space between the walls of thebuilding, proper hallway) and rehabilitation skills in the sample community were at a lower level than the average level.Data analysis also showed that there was a meaningful relationship of the component skill to the level of education andknowledge. In this regard, strengthening the earthquake risk management skill and increasing the variety of skills related toearthquake crisis management (communication, technical, etc.) among local managers are recommended as a fundamentalnecessity.