dynamic modeling

Efficient and effective customer relationship management increases customer satisfaction and retention. Customer relationship management helps organizations evaluate profitability and customer loyalty using criteria such as repeat purchases, money spent, and durability. The main goal of this research was the dynamic modeling of communication with customers and the dynamic analysis of this model. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of survey method with model development approach. The time frame of the research is five years (2017-2021). For this purpose, information on the indices of 33 factors affecting competitive advantage in Tejarat Bank were entered into Bayesian averaging models (BMA), dynamic moving average model with parameters that can be changed over time (TVP-DMA) and dynamic selection model with parameters that can be changed over time (TVP). -DMS) Based on the error rate, the BMA model had the highest accuracy. After estimating the model, 8 main variables were identified. which consists of: long-term account balance; the amount of use of mobile bank; the amount of internet bank usage; real customers; legal clients; special or normality of the customer; Type of job and education. These 8 main identified variables were entered into the dynamic model and then the model was validated based on boundary adequacy tests, structure evaluation, integration error and sensitivity analysis.

The current research sought to design a model for evaluating technological innovation capabilities with a dynamic modeling approach. The nature of the research was quantitative and qualitative, and in the qualitative part, technological innovation capabilities were extracted using interviews with experts and then refined using the Delphi technique. In the quantitative part, the designed model was simulated using the system dynamics approach. The effect of 18 factors on innovative capabilities was shown to be completely positive and effective. In other words, it can be said that the 18 determined factors can lead to innovation in technology in the automobile industry, and it is definitely effective in this industry. But in addition to the general effect, if we want to go into details, we can see that the 18 factors have an effect on the six state variables, namely profitability, customer satisfaction, innovation improvement, human resource management, productivity and quality. The shape of this effect varies from one variable to another. The shape of the work was meant to be linear or exponential. The effect of the model on profitability and customer satisfaction variables was completely significant and exponential. In this way, at the end of the period, cumulative effects and growth of profitability or customer satisfaction were witnessed, and this effect was not clear at the beginning of the period.

Investors' behavior is subject to actions and environmental factors in various political, legal, regional, security, etc. dimensions, which can cause fundamental changes in the field of investment and investors' behavior. Since looking into the future and creating scenarios in all economic categories is an inevitable and necessary thing, in the field of investors' behavior, it is also possible to predict financial developments and Their economy paid special attention; Also, since financial and accounting operations are one of the dynamic processes from the point of view of non-linear behavior over time, which has the ability to be recognized and analyzed in the form of a systematic evolution based on the law, therefore, the investigation and analysis of the financial field - A behavior from the perspective of modeling can lead to achieving desirable results, for this purpose, in this research, the researcher seeks to provide a method based on which, financial modeling in the face of environmental drivers through behavioral simulation of capital. to be analyzed based on the presentation of different scenarios. Using the quantitative research method in the form of a model design through the dynamic system method, the researcher determined the causes and influencing factors in the behavior of investors in the face of environmental drivers, as well as simulating and examining possible scenarios including the increase in the exchange rate and It deals with the increase of international sanctions and finally it deals with the presentation of effective investment policies and strategies.

The business model is an important factor in the competitive advantage of companies, and companies need to recreate their business model by changing the business environment due to changes in technology and communication. The current research aims to design a dynamic model based on text mining and soft methods to determine the most important key factors of electronic business models. This research is based on the text mining method and using the system dynamics modeling approach. In order to extract the key factors, the text mining of 779 articles of the last ten years from the world's authoritative databases has been examined. After examining the experts and selecting 17 key factors from among the extracted factors, in order to investigate the causal relationships between the key factors, the DEMATEL technique was used and the DEMATEL matrix was completed by the experts, and finally, the dynamic model of the research was drawn using Vensim software. The most influential causal factor is "Internet of Things" followed by "blockchain and cloud processing", and the most impressionable disabling factor is "provided value in the business". Also, the most influential factor on all factors was "nature of the media" and the most impressionable factor among the set of factors was "type of used technology ".

Technical and economic evaluations in an oil field means that by different technologies and correct planning, maximize the amount of extraction of hydrocarbons and minimize risks and costs. The current research includes technical evaluation and economic analysis on one of the undeveloped reservoirs in the southwest of Iran. The amount of recoverable hydrocarbon was estimated using the Monte Carlo method and based on the dynamic modeling of the oil reservoir, economic modeling was applied. Among the scenarios defined for the development of the reservoir, the most compatible scenario that has the highest rate of recovery of the reservoir and the best economic indicators has been selected as the best development scenario. In this scenario, production from the oil reservoir by drilling 14 new wells in 14 years and maintaining a maximum production rate of 10,000 barrels per day in order to produce 430 million barrels of oil and a recovery factor of 29.7% with total final cost of 0.995 billion dollars and The cumulative current value is 136.2 billion dollars. Investing in small, undeveloped reservoirs based on detailed analysis of performance and economic indicators can be very profitable and help to maintain the vital resources of the country.

Urban tourism is a complex phenomenon that increases in interaction with different environments. In recent years, due to this issue's importance, tourism has greatly impacted the economic, cultural, and political relations of different societies. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the application of the system dynamics method in the planning and development of the tourism industry in Shahdad.

In this research, using dynamic modeling in the form of the systems dynamics analysis method, the tourism development of Shahdad city has been evaluated. After reviewing the background of the research and identifying the factors affecting the development of tourism in Shahdad, the most important of these factors and a model of these factors and practical relationships between them were drawn in the Vensim software environment and the time horizon of the next 10 years was simulated.

In the model simulation, different scenarios were created based on increasing the cost of Shahdad tourism development, surplus budget ($ 5,000) and decreasing the cost of Shahdad tourism development, lack of budget ($ 1), and showed that this surplus budget could affect other variables. With the increase in the cost of tourism development in Shahdad, we saw an increase in attractions and tourism capacities in the model, and on the other hand, the lack of budget caused us to faceless attractions and the desire of local people, and this indicates that all variables in the model They were related.

The simulation results of the designed model showed that in order to achieve the desired goals, fit and coordination between different subsystems of the Shahdad tourism system (tourist economy income, tourism attractiveness, environmental protection, local people willingness) is necessary.

The importance of non-oil exports and its role in country’s economic growth has been considered as one of the most important economic issues by researchers. Considering the development of Iran’s handmade carpet export as the biggest non-oil export, can help the country to achieve a reasonable export economy. In this research, Iran's carpet export has been analyzed, in different levels, using dynamic modeling in Vensim Software at the form of system dynamics analysis. The proposed model described the phenomenon of handmade carpet export and using simulation process, its behavior has been predicted in next 10 years. Then, after structural and behavioral validation of model, using different strategies in simulated environment, policies and strategies to develop Iran's carpet exports has been provided, that these solutions include the development of effective e-commerce process, creating a centralized network monitoring on cooperative companies and carpet workshops, Facility assignment and the development of training programs to enhance the skills of designers, weavers and traders.

Proper design of management dashboards and according to the needs of users requires consideration of important and effective technical-engineering characteristics and the relationships between them. The aim of this study was to dynamically modelling of the strategic management dashboards and dynamic analysis of this model. For this purpose, out of 27 identified technical requirements for designing strategic management dashboards in the field of human resources management in NIOC, 17 items, based on the nature, importance and correlation between them in the house of quality model was selected as research variables and was used to build the problem model. The model was validated and different scenarios were examined and analyzed during several tests, including boundary adequacy test, structure evaluation, integration error, behavior reproduction, and sensitivity analysis. The research results indicate the confirmation of the model and the necessity of the existence of all variables and its reliability over time.

The existence of different dimensions and effects and different stakeholders involved in tourism development has led to the complexity and dynamics of the behavior of this area. it is necessary to know the proper and accurate recognition of tourism industry and provide solutions for improvement and development. therefore, the present study tries to provide the model tourism development model with emphasis on neighbouring markets using dynamic modeling in the form of system dynamics analysis. in this regard, by simulating the behavior of various factors in the Vensim software environment and analyzing the various dimensions of it, the country tourism industry has some solutions to achieve the desired status of these markets. Among the most important policies that are proposed to improve the country's tourism status with the priority of placing neighbouring markets are: improving relations with neighbours and prioritize them in marketing programmes, Strengthening the infrastructure and policy to develop domestic tourism for all categories of income, cultural change in order to strengthen the public view of iranian society to neighbouring tourists,Increase facilities and facilities for domestic and foreign investment all the potential tourism potential in all parts of the country, facilitating and removing redundant regulations for the creation of tourism businesses and simplifying the trip and creating a proper context for financial exchange with the target. finally, considering the simulation of the proposed scenarios in the dynamic model, it can be recognized that applying these policies can stimulate tourism development in the future years.

One of the most important concerns of recent decades is the environmental issue and the control of pollutants from various industries, including the construction industry. On the other hand, increasing in construction, especially in developing countries, is inevitable. This industry also produces and releases significant amounts of emmisions throughout its supply chain. In this paper, a dynamic model has been developed in which carbon dioxide gas emission from the construction supply chain are simulated. The developed model for validation was subjected to structural and behavioral validation tests. Then, by using sensitivity analysis and policy analysis of model, some scenarios were developed and the result of the simulation of scenarios was investigated. The simulation result using Vensim software shows that with implementation of incentive policies, creation of deterrent laws and regulations, and the efforts to deploy green supply chain training it is possible to reduce the growth of carbon dioxide emissions from the construction industry.

Life insurances in Iran, despite following a growing trend, still constitute an insignificant part of insurance industry compared to that of the global average, or the industry vision's targeted countries. The purpose of this article is to find the roots of this problem and to determine the related dynamic mechanisms. Previous studies and interviews with experts are used as the framework to establish and simulate a system dynamics model for the problem. Analysis of the simulation results show that not only is it possible to maintain the current growing trend in the industry for the next 10 years, but also the most important factors which will have effects on the future of life insurance industry are: scale of sales network and agents, measures which affect their sales productivity, and careful management of financial resources to fulfill the generated commitments, to name but a few. According to the analyses, the future of life insurance is in the hands of its policy and decision makers rather than being controlled by exogenous variables.

The purpose of this study was modeling some selected method of load carriage during sitting and arising, in order to introduce the best method to reduce energy consumption and risk of injury among troops.
In this research, ten subjects participate to determine the anatomical constraints, record the kinematic of motions and extract some parameters for modeling. Subsequently, the center of gravity position of four equipment for load carriage, including: Backpack, Double pack, Trunk vest and Double satchel, were determined and four different dynamic models of body and the load entered, were developed based on inverse dynamics equations by Lagrangian method. To calculate joint torque and mechanical energy, two dimensional models with four segments were run with kinematics information.
According to investigation results, mechanical energy consumption in Backpack method and hip torque in Double satchel method were lowest.
A more practical choice for military operations is to carry a load as close as possible to the center of mass of the body. In a nutshell, between all methods, carrying operation by Backpack method, according to its capabilities, is the best choice for carrying heavy and bulky equipment.

1. Considering the importance of Lake Urmia in the weather of northwest of Iran, the present study, using dynamic modelling and simulation, investigates the consequences of the drying up of Lake Urmia on the climate parameter of downfall.
2. Study Area: Lake Urima, considered the biggest pond in western Asia, with a surface area of 5 thousand and 822 square kilometers, is the second biggest lake in Iran, after the Caspian Sea, and the second highly saturated saline lake in the world. The drainage basin of Lake Urmia constitutes nearly 3 percent of the entire area of Iran. In recent years, climate issues are considered to be the main culprit in water crisis engulfing northwest of Iran. In some studies, climate is estimated to have been the cause of environmental crisis in Lake Urmia somewhere between 60 to 65 percent. Studies indicate that the aggregate seasonal and annual rainfall and snowfall in northwest of Iran is declining. It has, also, been shown that the sharp decline in rainfall and snowfall throughout the year in northwest of Iran, especially in winter, is the main reason for the decline, on an annual basis, in this period (Charbgu, 2011).
3. Material and In the study, for simulation using RegCM, it was paired the Lake’s model and was executed with a resolution of 10 kilometers for a three-year period (2001-2003). For the initial input of the model, digitized data were used. Lateral boundary condition data were obtained from the reanalyzed data with 2.5 degrees of horizontal separation, supplied by National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data, gathered in six-hour intervals, includes geopotential height, parallel (u) and meridian (v) components of wind, temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure and vertical speed. Data regarding the initial conditions include the surface temperature of the sea, gathered weekly, with a spatial horizontal separation of one degree, provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data for surface specification includes the topographical data gathered by National Cartographic Information Center in the USA, with a horizontal separation of 30 seconds, and land cover data together with the data regarding soil humidity and texture, with a spatial separation of 30 seconds. In order to investigate the influence of Lake Urmia on the amount of downfall in north-west of Iran, the paired model of the lake was executed first using the real condition and then by replacing the surface of Lake Urmia with a semi-desert and salt marsh. In order to investigate the importance of Lake Urmia’s existence and its effect on region’s climate for a three-year period (2001-2003), Regional Climate model (RegCM 4.3) with Grell parameterization in initial settings (with the lake) and simulated settings (without the lake) was executed. Since the aggregate daily or hourly rainfall or snowfall in a region forms its annual and seasonal amount, and on the other hand, depicting the pattern of rainfall or snowfall on a smaller scale is of importance for studying drought and wet year cycles, daily rainfall or snowfall was analyzed using Grell parameterization. In this parameterization, two ascending and descending major convective streams for clouds are considered. In fact, it is one of the cogent parameterizations for calculating rainfall and snowfall.
4. The map reveals that in case Lake Urmia is dried up, the eastern section of the lake will experience a more dramatic decline in the amount of downfalls. As can be seen, of the three kernels of decline in downfall, one is located in proximity to the Shabestar, Tabriz and Marand counties, the second kernel is in the middle of the eastern section of the lake, in Azarsharh county, and finally the third kernel is discernable in south-west of the lake, in Maragheh county. The greatest decrease in downfall, in simulated settings, occurs in the northeastern kernel, above Shabestar, Marand and Tabriz, which is much higher compared to other kernels, to the extent that in case of the lake’s disappearance, the entirety of western and northern sections of East Azerbaijan province will experience a decrease in the amount of downfall. In other regions, too, the amount of downfall will gradually become zero. Finally, it can be said that downfall during winter, in simulated settings, has decreased and the decrease of downfall in spring is much more severe and extensive, in comparison with other seasons.
5 The map indicates that in case the lake disappears, Jolfa, Maraghe, Tabriz, Shabestar, Azarsharh, and Marand counties will experience a decrease in the amount of downfall. This decrease will have dire consequences for the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, during the rainy season of spring. These consequences are much more salient for East Azerbaijan. The extent of the decrease in downfall around the lake, in case of its disappearance, will impact all the counties around it, and similar to the pattern of spring, will affect East Azerbaijan province more than before. With regards to the maps obtained through Grell parameterization, it can be said that this parameterization is capable of simulating the amount of downfall in northwest of Iran. The results yielded by Grell parameterization were validated by the data gathered through observation, and the percentage of error and skewness were analyzed using the data gathered by stations. After analyzing the aggregate seasonal three-year downfall (2001-2003), the outputs of the model in initial settings and after eliminating the lake, and their comparison with the real amount of downfall in Lake Urmia, revealed that RegCM4.3, in connection with the lake’s model, is capable of simulating the amount of snowfall and rainfall. Although the model has simulated more downfall than real situation (especially in spring), its conformity with the downfall recorded in stations of Tabriz, Jolfa, and Maraghe is satisfactory and in fact, RegCM has been able to perfectly simulate the pattern of monthly downfall with a high correlation of 0.9. The average percentage of error and skewness of downfall, compared to the observed amounts in synoptic weather stations in Iran for the months of the year 2003, were calculated using relations 1 and 2, and it was revealed that simulation for the amount of north-west downfall using Grell parameterization, has the highest amount of skewness in spring (85 millimeters) and lowest amount of skewness in summer (-2 millimeters). Model’s high amount of skewness in spring is indicative of a higher-than-real estimation compared to the actual data for northwest region. The pie chart, too, depicts model’s skewness and its ability to simulate downfall in the region, to the extent that winter, with a skewness of 15%, spring with 58%, autumn with 26% and finally summer with a 1% were simulated. It merits a mention that the reason for model’s low degree of simulation in summer is that; generally, downfall in this season is minimal (3%). The findings reveal that in case Lake Urima dries up, the amount of downfall in the eastern half of the lake and especially in East Azerbaijan will decrease, posing serious challenges to north-west of Iran.

Finding the optimal techniques is one of the aims of sport biomechanics science. According to previous soccer kick studies، the pattern of optimal technique has been computing by analyzing the kinematic and kinetic parameters of elite soccer player. The purpose of this study was finding the optimal soccer kick pattern in forward swing phase to achieve a maximum speed shot. The solution approach which is suggested to produce the optimal technique is to use the mechanical modeling by applying the motion equations. This model has some advantages compared to experimental study such as changing the model parameters separately، low cost and run repeatedly the model. A two-dimensional four-link dynamic model is introduced and by applying the appropriate constraints، the genetic algorithm is used to achieve the optimal technique. The computed pattern was compared with six skill subject’s patterns that Acquired by cameras (240Hz). The results showed significant deference in joints angular displacement patterns between computed and subjects techniques. Also، the computed pattern velocity increased 62. 5 percent more than subject’s pattern and the computed pattern was similar to reported in previous studies. Therefore، the computed pattern is valid for human according to human body physiology and mechanics. Using the model in this study can create interaction between joint and segments and enhance Motion-Dependent Moment in distal segment and improve speed and quality of the kick. Therefore، it is important and necessary to enhance muscle strength and improve neuromuscular coordination. In a nutshell، this model is an apparatus which can available for trainers to teach optimal technique of soccer instep kick to athletes specifically.

In many developing countries، agriculture as the dominant sector of the economy is known. High share of employment and value added in agriculture and increasing food demand increases the importance of this sector and the agricultural sector may be seen as a precondition for economic development. Capital has always been known as one of the factors affecting economic growth is considered. According to the government''s role in the economy and the need for private investment in the economy، this study examines the impact of GDP on infrastructure spending، government spending، government consumption، interest rates، inflation and uncertainty on private investment in agriculture has. For this purpose، time series data during 1350 to 1387 and of Johansen - Juselius (1990) are used. The results of this study indicate that government infrastructure spending and economic growth in private investment in the agricultural sector are significant and positive impact On the other variable interest rate uncertainty and private investment in the agricultural sector are significant and negative impact.

The human resource managers have to make strategic and prospective decisions to respond to the unexpected changes in national tire industry. In this regard، system dynamics is one of the most practical tools for searching causal structures in systems، simulating their behaviors against unpredicted variations، and making some reactive policies for possible future conditions. We try to predict and sensitively analyze the required human resource capacity of national sedan tire industry over the horizon of Iran 1404 vision through developing a system dynamics model. The structures of sedan tire industry are designed based on Sterman’s methodology and the recent 10 years corresponding data on the effective variables is identified. Collected data described by mathematical equations is then considered as the model’s input in Vensim. Based on the designed model، the behavior and final results of variables are evaluated until the end of time horizon. Numerical results indicated that the number of human resources employed in sedan tire industry at the end of Iran 1404 vision will approximately be equal to 15000. By establishing a sensitivity analysis، the effect of the key variables، particularly the demand، on sedan tire industry is examined and suggestions for making macro-planning policies for production and human resource in different conditions are provided.

Although the heavy traffic of metropolitan areas has created many problems, from another perspective, there is a big opportunity at the heart of this threat. This great opportunity is an entrepreneurial field in the form of urban physical distribution services. Still, this field of business has not been adequately recognized and known by society. It needs more supporting and complementary institutions and regulations to be reliable for the society. In this research, the issue of inner urban physical distribution services is analyzed by using dynamic modeling in the shape of systems dynamic analysis. First, the important aspects of the problem are specified. Afterwards, the dynamic assumptions are presented and the causal model is developed. In the next step, the behavioral credibility is verified by the current statistics and by using mathematical functions and simulating the models in “Venism”. As a result, certain policies are presented for development of inner urban physical distribution services and are evaluated by software simulation. Finally, the most effective policies which can affect development of inner urban physical distribution service are recommended.