delphi method

Undoubtedly entrepreneurship has a very important role in the urban economy and achieving economic development, and through the implementation of economic development strategies, provides acceptable conditions for urban management. Entrepreneurship is one of the solutions that provide the ground for the financial independence of citizens by significantly reducing the unemployment rate and its many problems and creating a stable income. On the other hand, given that we are in a situation of coronavirus outbreak and many businesses are facing serious disruptions, the lack of appropriate urban entrepreneurship development models can lead to the continuation of the recession. Therefore, finding one or more patterns of urban entrepreneurship development appropriate to the conditions of the Coronavirus outbreak can help improve the economic conditions of cities. The present study aimed to identify patterns of urban entrepreneurship development that are effective in the prevalence of coronavirus. In this regard, effective indicators in the development of urban entrepreneurship were determined using the Delphi method. First, the effective indicators in the development of urban entrepreneurship were determined using the Delphi method and expert opinions. The experts were selected using the purposeful snowball sampling method. Then, to determine the importance of indicators, the SWARA method was used. To interpret and identify the impact of entrepreneurship development indicators, an interpretive structural approach was used. The results showed that the index of creating communication networks has the highest weight. In addition, to select the optimal models of entrepreneurship development, the indicators of providing bank facilities and creating communication networks should be paid special attention.

Mineral industries are one of the important sectors of industry in Iran, therefore, it is necessary to improve the quality of mineral products. One of these products is foundry silica sand. The aim of this study was to create a complete model using this type of silica sand. A comprehensive analysis was done on ten mines and seven mines were selected to perform the quality improvement stage. A total of 1400 tests were conducted to achieve the main goal of the research, which was to increase the quality of silica sand parameters. It was also found that the seven basic characteristics of silica sand have a significant effect on the quality of the final products. The quality of silica sands is influenced by elements such as calcium, sodium, potassium and magnesium, which are alkaline elements of the soil. A higher percentage of silica in a mineral is usually associated with increased quality, as it ensures the achievement of ideal properties and performance in silica sands. Factors affecting the quality of silica sand were prioritized by experts using the fuzzy Delphi technique and hierarchical analysis. These factors have an effect on the chemical composition, purity, reactivity and performance of silica sands. Also, a data mining model was designed to predict the quality of these sands. The findings of this study show that the presence of calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium, silica content, ADV (sand alkalinity or acidity) and pH affect the quality of silica sands. It is concluded that this model provides an efficient attitude and prediction to increase product quality.

Risk management is a new branch of management science that, despite being new, has been rapidly expanding and growing and has been welcomed by experts and managers in a variety of trends. Today, risk and related tendencies have found their place in a wide range of matters such as investment, trade, insurance, safety, health, industrial and development projects, and even political, social and military issues. In this regard, risk management has a special place in project management issues, features such as project uniqueness and uncertainty in hypotheses, project objectives and requirements and as a result of environmental factors governing the project, the roots of uncertainty and the source of risk in the project host. According to the standard of knowledge of project management, risk management is one of the principles that is used in project management and to identify uncertainties in achieving project goals. In this study, using fuzzy Delphi method, risk was identified in Mashhad construction projects and then, using the opinion of the panel of experts, 32 risks were identified and prioritized. In supply and goods and equipment, lack of necessary infrastructure for projects, lack of foreign investment in project implementation, constant change of managers, lack of skilled labor, lack of qualified engineer, lack of understanding of projects and related activities, Goods and equipment insurance have the highest risks.

Rework has become one of the most common concerns in residential construction. It is also one of the primary causes of cost and time overruns in residential construction projects, requiring additional resources. Consequently, a substantial quantity of pollution is produced during the construction phase due to the use of significant amounts of resources for reworking. Considering the environmental and economic impacts, the risk of rework in projects should be minimized thorough comprehension of the contributing factors. This study's primary objective is to identify rework factors in residential projects in Mashhad. In order to accomplish the aims, rework-related literature was analyzed, resulting in identifying 76 rework factors. Among these factors, 29 key factors were selected from the researchers' point of view. Following this, the Delphi method was used to reach a reliable consensus among experts regarding the significance of selected factors. In the second round of the Delphi method, 15 experts in the field of construction who participated in this study reached a consensus regarding the importance of each factor. The results are: "Lack of experience and knowledge (client/supervisory team)", "Policy of selecting the lowest financial offer without considering technical competence", and "late changes of plan or scope by the client" in the client group; "Design errors and omissions (late designer input, limited designer skill and experience)" in the design team group; and "Skill and knowledge / insufficient training of the contractor's agents" in the contractor group. It is anticipated that the results of this study will assist project stakeholders and actors in comprehending the underlying factors of rework so that the implementation of their projects requires minimal design changes and rework in the construction phase.

It is not easy to achieve the same level of exploration and exploitation in the organization, but the time to reach it can be shortened. Organizations that prefer discovery and abandon exploration incur the costs of experimentation without gaining much benefit from it. These companies are full of untapped ideas and undifferentiated capabilities. In contrast, organizations that abandon exploration and engage in extraction are likely to fall into the trap of steady equilibrium. Creating a proper balance between exploration and exploitation is the main factor in the prosperity of any company's system. Therefore, the aim of this research was to design and explain the organizational ambidexterity model in multi-purpose holdings. The research method of this mixed research is exploratory. First, using the Delphi method, the organizational ambidexterity model was formed in multipurpose holdings. Based on the Delphi method, 16 subcategories in the form of 2 main categories constitute the components of the model. Then, using the structural equation modeling method, the measurement model components and the structural model of the whole model were validated at the level of multi-purpose holdings. Based on the findings of the structural equation modeling method, at the level of multi-purpose holdings under investigation, the "exploration" factor through the sub-dimensions of "communications", "strategy", "flexibility", "capability", "vision", "structure", "organizational culture" , "Entrepreneurial tendency" and "exploratory management" and "exploitation" factor through the sub-dimensions of "strategy", "adaptation", "capability", "vision", "structure", "organizational culture" and "management", the latent variable They explain the higher ."order of "organizational ambidexterity.

In a city, there are different sectors in operation, and each sector also plays a role in the production of municipal waste, which draws attention to waste management methods. The present study explains a model to identify the factors affecting waste production in Bushehr.

The main dimensions of the model are taken from the review of the theoretical literature. A dynamic systems approach has also been used to identify urban waste management strategies. First, we identified and modelled the factors affecting municipal waste production with dynamic systems. The reasons for using the dynamic systems approach for this research can also be enumerated as follows: 1) an appropriate approach in determining and predicting the effects of factors affecting waste production, 2) helping to understand the relationships between variables and examining the behaviour and structure of systems, incredibly complex systems (creating a conceptual model), 3) a flexible approach with the ability to analyze quantitatively and qualitatively, 4) the ability to review the system in the future under different scenarios and policies of decision makers and 5) dynamic system models are considered as simulation models; therefore, they have the advantages of using the simulation method over the analysis methods. In the next step, the organization's internal and external factors in urban waste management were performed by referring to the SWOT analysis method, urban waste management strategies in Bushehr.

 The results of the SWOT method showed that the vulnerability threshold of urban waste management in Bushehr is very high, and it is necessary to provide appropriate policies to address weaknesses and threats using strengths and opportunities. In the next step, Mikhailov's nonlinear method was used to rank the four strategies. This approach shows that among SO strategies, increasing awareness and changing citizens' attitudes towards proper waste management is in the first place. Among ST strategies, culturing for recyclable containers weighing 0.51 is in the first place. Employing knowledgeable people for proper waste segregation and disposal among WT strategies, with a weight of 0.57, was ranked first, and finally, the strategy of encouraging the private sector to invest, with a weight equivalent to 0.43 among WO strategies, Ranked first. Pollution from poor waste management in urban areas imposes irreversible health and aesthetic consequences on society. Among the consequences of poor waste management will be a variety of diseases. Environmental issues are also at the top of all human problems.

Originality/Value: 

 In this research, an attempt has been made to examine innovation from three aspects: theoretical, technical and practical gaps, which can be mentioned as the strengths of the current research compared to other research. From a theoretical point of view, it has been tried to conduct a relatively comprehensive study of factors affecting urban waste management to formulate strategies. Also, from the technical point of view, the current research is innovative by focusing on combining fuzzy logic with the dynamic systems modelling approach and the Delphi method. Finally, it has been tried to reduce the practical vacuum of previous research in this field by formulating optimal strategies.

According to the forecasts, the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions will be between 2025 and 2035. Global climate change policies to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement (not to increase the global temperature by 2 degrees), quickly affect countries, affect the economic growth of countries, shake the position of fossil energy and shape new trends in future energy technologies; Therefore, paying attention to the future of policies to deal with climate change is particularly important. In this article, the method of structural analysis with the Micmac method has been used for future research in this field, and the Delphi method has been used to collect experts' opinions about the influence of variables on each other. In this research, 22 factors were identified as key variables and the mutual influence of the factors on each other in different sections was investigated using Micmac software. Based on the analytical results, political factors will have the most impact in the future of climate change policies. In the next stage, it is the turn of scenario planning, and then the optimal strategies for Iran have been explained considering possible futures.

Planning for housing construction after a probable earthquake in big cities has received less attention due to its complexity and ambiguity in urban settlements like Tehran. Since reconstruction is an opportunity for development and better construction, using up-to-date and suitable technologies in the building is inevitable. The new technology used in the construction of housing after earthquakes must have these features: high construction speed, lower cost, low energy consumption, compatibility with the environment, appropriate stability and strength, seismic resistance, and consequently higher useful life of buildings. Due to the wide dimensions of construction technologies, high implementation costs and the need to have executive knowledge and cognition of post-disaster conditions, the use of suitable and appropriate technology in all dimensions and components of the building requires a correct understanding of the indicators. The current research aims to identify and prioritize the indicators of permanent housing construction technology after the earthquake in Tehran using the Delphi method and Shannon's entropy technique.The research methodology applies a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods based on analytical and exploratory strategies. After reviewing the articles, documents and specialized texts as well as examining the experiences from previous studies, indicators were extracted and classified using the Delphi method then approved by the experts and ranked using Shannon's entropy technique. After that, the opinions of ten experts, senior managers, officials, and eight university professors aware of the field of housing in Tehran were used. By referring to the qualified specialists and experts in the field of housing construction technologies after the earthquake and by visiting the relevant departments and organizations, senior managers, and officials in person, questionnaires were completed by experts in the field of housing and university professors knowledgeable in the field of housing who made up the target statistical population. Then, to achieve the indicators, the research background, publications and published documents related to the subject were reviewed.For this purpose, the indicators obtained through interviews with experts were examined, and among dozens of cases, after combining similar cases and including overlaps, removing unrelated and ambiguous cases, and making necessary corrections, 78 variables were selected as the indicators in the field of housing construction technologies were identified after the earthquake in Tehran.In the first step, a questionnaire was designed under the title of weighting indicators of housing construction technology after a possible earthquake in Tehran, which included 12 components and 90 sub-components and was given to 18 experts to rate each index based on a 5-point Likert scale. It is worth mentioning that the experts were asked to mention, in addition to the determined indicators, if they consider another influencing factor. In the research process, the majority of experts agreed, some added new components, and some did not express an opinion. Then, in the second round, items with an average of less than 3.5 were removed and new items were added. Thus, during two stages and using the Delphi method, various items of post-accident housing construction technologies were extracted. The meaning of housing in this research is permanent and conventional housing of 5 to 7 floors with an area of 70 to 90 square meters in Tehran, which is usually assumed to start construction after the stages of emergency and temporary housing. Twelve effective components in housing construction technology after the Tehran earthquake have been identified in previous studies. These factors include construction and execution management, cost, housing construction components, type of materials, time, prefabrication, energy consumption, safety, cultural and social characteristics, environmental conditions and compatibility with the architectural design, which are categorized into four managerial, economic, social and cultural sectors.The results show that among the refined indicators, "quality, durability and high resistance of housing construction materials", "application of existing standards of the construction industry in building systems", "main structure of housing", "supplying space light", "minimum required energy for climate adaptation" and "considering different areas of Tehran" were recognized as the most important indicators of housing construction technology after earthquakes.The criteria with high priority in housing construction technology can be analyzed from the structural and non-structural points of view.A Scrutinizing look shows that there are factors in the construction technologies considered by the respondents, which are mostly non-structural and architectural and the view of builders and designers from the scope of structural and physical issues of housing to other categories in the construction process, including Management, architectural and social factors have been focused in Tehran.

The sustainability of supply chain processes is one of the up-to-date infrastructures needed by organizations in tough competitive conditions, so that supply chain sustainability has become a strategic organizational issue. The health system has one of the most complex supply chains due to its relationship with human health, and the drug supply chain is a part of this system. The purpose of this research is "to design a maturity model of supply chain sustainability with a continuous improvement approach in the pharmaceutical industry of Iran". This research is an exploratory mixed research. The first stage of the research is qualitative due to the need to determine the required components of the model. In this stage, using the methods of literature review and systematic review, the required data were collected from scientific articles of domestic and foreign journals and analyzed using the methods of content analysis and thematic analysis, and in the second stage of the research, the opinions of 16 academic experts and An industry was collected and analyzed in the form of quantitative data using a questionnaire in the Delphi method, it is quantitative. The designed maturity model has a descriptive, prescriptive and comparative approach. Designing a supply chain sustainability maturity model for other industries, clarifying the status of the country's pharmaceutical industry's supply chain sustainability using the designed maturity model, and developing a supply chain sustainability standard for Iran's pharmaceutical industry are suggested for future research.

Policy evaluation is the guarantor of their control, direction and perfection. But in the field of tourism industry, less attention has been paid to this important matter. The current research, with the aim of identifying the main elements related to the evaluation of tourism policies in Iran, is a step to partially cover this knowledge gap. To answer this main research question: What are the basic elements (dimensions, categories and concepts) to evaluate the general policies of tourism in Iran? The method of conducting this research is mixed (qualitative and quantitative). The research data included documents, texts related to the subject, the results of interviews with seven experts and the answers to the questionnaires of 21 experts who were selected by purposive sampling. Qualitative data was obtained from the review of related documents and literature, interview tool and Delphi method. In the initial stage, 18 categories and 59 basic concepts related to the evaluation model of public policies in Iranian tourism were identified and extracted and related to these 5 comprehensive dimensions of tourism policy evaluation: Diagnosing the problem, formulating the policy, legitimizing the policy, implementing the policy, evaluating the policy. For validation, the factors extracted during three rounds of the Delphi method were given to 21 experts. Based on the findings of the research, a total of 44 basic concepts related to the following 14 categories were identified for the evaluation model of tourism policies in Iran: Addressing the central issue, Having a comprehensive approach, Concern for experts, Rationality of the policy, Policy dynamics, Policy coherence, Legality, General admission, Efficiency, Executive commitment, Having the necessary tools, Continuity of assessment, Having appropriate evaluation indicators and Attention to the positive results of the policy.

Evaluation of maintenance system in the building is one of the key factors in improving the quality of maintenance and repair processes. It can be stated with certainty that all buildings need maintenance and scientific and technical repair after construction, and therefore how to define this system and determine the appropriate indicators and strategies for it will play an important role in the cost and longevity of the building during operation. The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the indicators affecting the maintenance and repair system (R&M) of Residential buildings and determine the most appropriate policy related to it using a combination of multi-criteria decision-making method. In the presented method, first the weight of the indicators was calculated and then the indicators were prioritized based on multi-criteria fuzzy and non-fuzzy decision-making methods.Finally, considering the ranks obtained from those methods, the final ranking of indicators was calculated using the Average rating and Copeland method. The results showed that the indicators of safety, health, accessibility and proper utilization are in the highest priority respectively and reliability are in the last rank. This issue indicates the importance of safety indicator in evaluating the maintenance and Repairs system of buildings. in order to perform maintenance and repair operations, by identifying and prioritizing effective indicators, they can be used to evaluate the maintenance and repair system of the building based on them.Finally, according to the results and with the help of ARAS method, Breakdown Maintenance Strategy was selected as the most appropriate maintenance policy for buildings.The results of this study show that the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods can help the construction industry professionals to select the key effective indicators in the repair and maintenance system and determine appropriate strategies. Finally, suggestions for future research were provided.

Increasing traffic congestion in urban thoroughfares will have detrimental negative effects such as increasing air pollution, increasing fuel consumption and increasing road user dissatisfaction. General strategies for controlling traffic congestion can be divided into three parts, which are: creating a restricted traffic area, turning traffic plan, and traffic congestion pricing. In the present study, the mentioned strategies were prioritized using the combined Delphi method and Analytic Network Process (ANP). The metropolis of Mashhad was also selected as a case study in this study. Based on the results, the traffic congestion pricing strategy with a score of 0.484 was recognized as the best traffic congestion control strategy in metropolitan areas. The strategies of the turning traffic plan and the creation of a restricted traffic area also gained the second and third priorities, respectively, with a slight difference. The indicators of the travel cost, using of public transportation and single-occupancy car traffic were also recognized as the most important indicators affecting the evaluation and prioritization of traffic congestion control strategies, respectively.

Selecting a construction project manager is one of the most important processes in human resource management in the construction industry. Deciding on the issue of hiring a project manager will be a complex and multivariate issue. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid model that optimally solves the issue of ranking and selection of a construction project manager by using decision-making techniques. The proposed model is based on fuzzy linguistic decision criteria, to solve the construction manager selection based on criteria derived from the Delphi method based on previous studies. In this research, two methods of group decision making in ranking and selecting the construction project manager are presented. The Delphi method extracts the criteria, while the fuzzy TOPSIS method selects the optimal candidate. The results show that the use of multi-criteria decision-making methods in the construction project manager selection, increases the efficiency of the process and because it considers various criteria, in the end, efficient managers in accordance with the needs of the project-based organization is a candidate in the recruitment process. One of the features of the proposed approach is to minimize the involvement of subjective judgments in the selection of the construction project manager. This approach can also help decision makers of project-based organizations in identifying and determining the basic criteria before selecting a construction project manager and facilitate the decision to select the best construction project manager based on multiple criteria and options.