Identification and Assessment of Fire Risk Factors Using the Delphi Technique and Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis A Case Study: Forest Parks in the Southern Slopes of Alborz, Iran

The present research was conducted to achieve sustainable development and optimal use of environmental resources for identifying and prioritizing fire risk factors and fire management in Vesiye forest park located on the southern slopes of Alborz, Iran, to control and reduce the resultant destruction.

The three-round Delphi questionnaire and previous information were used to identify the most important fire risk factors in the studied forest park, which were subsequently ranked and weighted using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

The effective factors in the fire were identified to be vegetation type, slope, slope direction, distance to roads, distance to settlements, presence of tourists, altitude changes in the region, annual temperature changes, vegetation density, land use, atmospheric humidity percentage, wind speed, direction and the presence of hunters, and animal husbandry, respectively. According to the analyzed data, the highest ranks were assigned to vegetation type (0.2785), slope (0.1875), slope direction (0.1495), distance to roads (0.1075), and distance to settlements (0.0665), and the lowest weight to height (0.055).

The results revealed that the vegetation type has provided suitable conditions for fire in Vesiye Forest Park due to its high flammability factor as a fuel for the fire and the distance to roads as the factor of easy access for tourists to the forest park.