Determine the Key Factors of Structure-Based Hazards Management Based on Future Research Approach (case study: Ardabil city)

Environmental hazards are considered as one of the most important topics in various fields of urban planning and design. Structure-based hazard management is a management method based on hazards reduction, in which measures to prevent and reduce losses caused by hazards are carried out before the hazard occurs. The science of futures studies is preparing for the future and using existing resources in the best possible way according to values, that affect disaster risk planning and management. In this regard; The aim of the current research is to identify the key factors effective on structure-based hazard management with a future-research approach in Ardabil city. The purpose of this study is practical, and descriptive- analytical in terms of method. Environmental survey method has been used to identify variables and indicators. The statistical population of the research is 35 people who are experts in the field of hazard management, whom were selected purposefully. In order to measure and analyze the data, judgments of experts about the research topic was collected and combining, also Micmac and Scenario Wizard software have been used. The results obtained from the output of Micmac software show that 7 key factors have major impacts on structure-based hazard management. afterwards, for each of the key factors, three scenarios were defined and analyzed using Scenario Wizard software. Based on the quantitative analysis of Scenario Wizard software, two strong scenarios, 129 weak scenarios and 10 scenarios with high compatibility were obtained. Among these three groups of scenarios, the scenarios of the third group were selected as desirable scenarios and finally classified into three groups of golden, believable and critical scenarios.