نشریه مطالعات خاورمیانه
سال سی‌ام شماره 2 (پیاپی 112، تابستان 1402)

On June 2, 2023, "Emily Milliken", the senior analyst of European Union security studies, and "Giorgio Cafireo", the CEO of Gulf State Analysis, who provide analysis on geopolitical risk issues, published an article entitled "Egypt and Iran: Towards rapprochement" in which they emphasized that de-escalation between the two populous countries of the Middle East follows a new regional model and diplomacy. In their article, it is stated that there have been many attempts to normalize relations between Egypt and Iran in the past, but all of them have failed for various reasons, but this time is different and there are various interests behind this normalization. It seems that the secret of the normalization of relations between the two countries after four decades of disconnection lies in the new changes in the strategic geography of the region, which the authors of the article have mentioned as a regional model that began with the improvement of relations between Riyadh and Tehran, and gradually other countries The region joined it, and the latest of these is the improvement of relations between Egypt and Turkey, after the long-term darkness of relations that began with the Arab Spring and the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, now it seems that a period of easing of tension between Erdogan and El-Sisi has also begun.

Given that Qatar, as one of the richest countries in the Arab world, with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and under the influence of Brotherhood ideas, is an active and influential activist in security processes in the Middle East, on the one hand, also the influence of foreign policy orientations. On the security and national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this study uses the process tracking method to provide an answer to the question of how the Brotherhood's Islamist model has affected Qatar's foreign policy action and what consequences this impact has on the cooperation model. Or is there a conflict in the Persian Gulf region?The findings of this study indicate that the Qatari Brotherhood's Islamist discourse in the field of foreign policy, in addition to providing financial support, through media support through the Al Jazeera media group and the pursuit of the Qatari renaissance project, has been most prominent and this has led to There have been various consequences for regional order and security, such as the restriction and Arab siege of the country, the resurgence of Salafi jihadist Islamist groups, and the intensification of regional conflict patterns and trends.

The geo-economic competition of the Iran and Turkey in post-ISIS Iraq and Syria is one of the areas of regional commercial competition using the tools of economic diplomacy. The strategy of Iran and Turkey during the rise and rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria had a clear contradiction. The Iran sought the survival of Bashar al-Assad's government and the cleansing of Iraq from the extremist and terrorist forces of ISIS, and on the opposite side, Turkey sought to weaken the central government in Syria and Iraq by using the tools of terrorist groups. After the destruction of ISIS, the competition of these two regional rivals in the economic field and seizing geo-economic opportunities developed. The markets of Iraq and Syria became the place of Iranian and Turkish trade. The question of the current research is what is the situation of the Iran in the geo-economic competition with Turkey in Iraq and Syria and what are the reasons for Iran being in this situation? The hypothesis proposed in response to the research question is that the Iran is in an unfavorable situation in the geo-economic competition with Turkey in Iraq and Syria and is lagging behind in taking over the export markets in Iraq and Syria, and the main reason for this is the lack of a clear geo-economic strategy and the lack of links Commercial based on the identification of target markets. The research method in this article is descriptive-explanatory and documentary method is used to collect library resources

Turkey, as one of the powerful economies in the Middle East witch has several economic relations with the world economic powers of the, such as the United States and China. United States and China, the article conducted with analytical qualitative method and using library data and articles that have already been written, as well as the classification of economic statistics and their analysis and the comparison of economic statistics with one another. and has been written, the findings indicate that in the past decade, Turkey's exports to the United States have been on the rise and Turkey's trade balance with the United States has been positive, but Turkey has not been able to succeed in exporting to China and imports In the past decade, Turkey's exports to China have been on average ten times that of Turkey's exports to China. Turkey's trade balance with China has been negative. We can conclude that China has been able to play a greater role in the markets of Turkey plays and practically during the last decade in China's markets Turkey has been more successful than the United States

The independence referendum of the Kurdistan Region was caught in a domestic,regional and international situation.Undoubtedly,the negative reaction of regional and international actors had a significant role in this process.Meanwhile, examining the role of usa as the biggest Global power and an influential actor in the developments of Iraq,which itself has deep relations with the Kurdistan region is very important,and the difference in the action of this actor could have different results in relation to the referendum issue.This research seeks to examine the foreign policy of the usa regarding the independence referendum of the Kurdistan Region in 2017.The questions that this research seeks to answer are:Why was usa unable to present a comprehensive strategy regarding the independence referendum of the Kurdistan Region despite its long-standing relationship with the Kurds? And what were the consequences of this incoherence?The answer to these questions requires examining the internal and external strategic environment affecting the usa foreign policy.Using the theory of "neoclassical realism",this article argues that the systematic limitations as well as the specific perception of foreign policy agents made usa unable to form a clear road map.This caused a strategic vacuum in the region and had consequences such as strengthening the position of the peripheral powers to fill the gap caused by the reduction of usa influence in the region,as well as the isolation of the Kurds in an environment without allies.In this research, descriptive-explanatory method was used and data collection was done by library method as well as interview.

The future of Afghanistan as Iran's most important eastern neighbor is of strategic importance for the country's national security. The Haqqani network, as a powerful faction of the Taliban, which has high military and financial power and is very close to the leadership of the Taliban, has dominated on Afghanistan. This research tries with future studying to evaluate the role of domestic and foreign actors affecting on Haqqani network. In this regard, according to the knowledge of the actors, it seems that the type of their exposure with this network can be read through the theory of defensive realism. According to the opinions of the elites in this research, the Kandahar faction, China and Russia are three effective and important actors whose position change towards the Haqqani network will change the power level of this network and its role in the future of Afghanistan. Based on results in the scenario wizard software, two scenarios; "continuing power" and "weakening the position" of the Haqqani network are possible.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship between three variables of global geopolitical risk index, crude oil price and Middle East region's defense expenditures during the years 1988-2021. For this purpose, the Granger causality test of Hatemi-J (2012) has been used in the form of bivariate analysis. The results of the symmetric causality test between the variables show that only the existence of a one-way causality relationship is confirmed from the side of crude oil price to the Middle East region's defense expenditures. The results of the asymmetric causality test also confirm the one-way causality relationship from the positive shocks of the global geopolitical risk index and the crude oil price to the positive shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures. Also, the one-way asymmetric causality is confirmed from the side of negative crude oil price shocks to the negative shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures and from the side of positive global geopolitical risk index shocks to positive crude oil price shocks. Based on this, it can be said that an increase in the global geopolitical risk leads to an increase in the crude oil price. The increase in the global geopolitical risk and the crude oil price also leads to an increase in defense spending in the Middle East region. Also, it can be expected that with the decrease in the crude oil price, the defense expenditures in the Middle East region will decrease.

Since the Arab Spring commenced in 2011, Turkey has increasingly relied on military tools in its foreign policy. Military force is the most important indicator of displaying hard power, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Ankara has shifted to a hard-power approach to secure itself from threats in and achieve its aspirations of becoming a regional power. Turkey’s military activism and assertive policies during the last few years would not have been possible without strong homegrown defense capabilities and drone power. Therefore, the question of this research is how the developments in the National Defense Industry (NDI), as the most important axis of the country's activity, have affected the increase of Turkey's hard power in the Middle East and North Africa from 2011 to 2021? This article uses John Mearsheimer's offensive realism theoretical framework to answer this question. This research is qualitative, descriptive and analytical. The method of data collection has done in a library manner, and articles, books and websites have been used. 

Secret diplomacy has been one of the important elements of the Israeli diplomatic system. The establishment of Israel, contrary to the legitimate and acceptable processes of nation-building, which resulted in a threatening external environment, the hostile approach of the surrounding countries, and the lack of formal diplomatic ties, is the most important reason for relying on Secret diplomacy by this regime. By promoting Secret diplomacy, Israel has been able to achieve one of the most important achievements of its regional relations, i.e. the transition from the Secret state of diplomatic relations to open diplomacy in the form of signing the Abraham Accords. This article tries to answer this question: What are the historical contexts of Secret diplomacy in Israel? What institutions and channels have promoted it? What capacities has Israel used to advance its secret diplomacy in this regard?What capacities has Israel used to advance its secret diplomacy in this regard?

This article aims to provide a systematic analysis of the continuation of conflict and instability in Afghanistan. The Afghan government has experienced recurrent episodes of violence and political turmoil in the past five decades. Since 1973, the country has witnessed three coups d'état and six regime changes. Afghanistan's geopolitical location at the crossroads of South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia plays a decisive role in the continuation of the conflict. Drawing on the regional security complex theory, this article argues that Afghanistan is an insulator state that does not belong to any of the security arrangements of its neighboring regions and is exposed to their security threats and interventions. The main research question is: how do the surrounding regions of Afghanistan influence the continuation of the conflict in this country? The main hypothesis is that Afghanistan's insulation from its peripheral regional security complexes (South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East) has reduced the sense of common destiny between Afghanistan and these regions and has made it a battleground for their rivalries and spillovers. The findings of the article show that the competition between India and Pakistan from South Asia, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the infiltration of non-state actors such as ISIS from the Middle East, and the presence of Islamic extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Ansarullah of Tajikistan and the issue of energy transit from Central Asia are crucial factors in sustaining the conflict in Afghanistan.

The subject is to identify and explain the effective factors in the policies of the Iranian diplomatic system in the disputes between them.The researcher intends to answer the question that what are the effective factors in the strategies of the Iranian diplomatic towards Saudi and how can it be evaluated.The researcher mainly tries to investigate the key factors causing tension from two perspectives,referring to documents and interviewing experts in this field, i.e. political science, in order to achieve key indicators with the help of phenomenological method.This research emphasizes on two main references to understand the tension factors.First:the paradigm governing the country's political behavior and diplomacy and second:the spatial behavior and pattern of Saudi political thinking in the region.The research method in this research is explanatory,with the help of Claizi's method,to explain and interpret the subject.At the same time,it is trying to identify and classify the main drivers of tension with the help of the Mic-Mac model.Based on the research problem,this hypothesis comes to mind that the effective factors in Iran's diplomatic system in categories such as Iran's regional influence,influence on the resistance front Saudi's view of Iran can be explained and evaluated through the lens of America.The results of the research showed that in relation to the effective factors in the policy-making of the diplomatic system in the occurrence of differences between them,not only the political behavior of Iran,but also the occurrence of regional and global events and the ruling political thinking,especially on the part of Saudi have't been unaffected.