نشریه بررسی های آمار رسمی ایران
سال سی و یکم شماره 2 (پیاپی 97، پاییز و زمستان 1399)

 Considering the need to save energy consumption in less developed countries, it seems necessary to identify the effective factors of energy growth in the economy of OPEC countries. Energy intensity represents the energy required to produce a unit of product at the national level. Energy intensity at the level of an industry or a specific production process is calculated in terms of physical units. The physical value of energy intensity is the result of dividing the amount of energy consumed by the product produced. Energy intensity of GDP is a measure for measuring and evaluating energy efficiency in the economy, which is measured by the ratio of units of energy consumed to one unit of GDP. Considering the role and importance of energy intensity, in this article, the effect of variables of energy price (oil), GDP, producer price index and technology was investigated using panel data method during 1995-2018 for OPEC member countries. The results indicate a negative and significant effect of the energy price variable with a value of -0.03, foreign direct investment (-0.004) and capital to labor force with a value of -0.13, as well as a positive effect of the producer price index (0.044) on energy intensity, which the variable effect is according to is expected.

  In this paper, dynamic longitudinal categorical data and estimation of their parameters in incomplete contingency tables are evaluated. To apply the proposed method, a study has been conducted on the data of the semi-concentrated doctoral exam of the National Organization for Educational Testing (NOET). The results of studies such as the obtained confidence intervals and calculating the efficiency of estimators show the superiority of the proposed method over other current methods.

 The paper’s aim is to establish the foundations, principles and process of the knowledge-based mechanism of the Statistical Center of Iran. To reach this aim, the path is systemic cognition based on pattern, strategy and thinking. Understanding the basic concepts of knowledge and the ways to achieve knowledge system and knowledge maps is according to the eight research questions. Therefore, this paper relies on the corns of system approach, strategy and thinking, knowledge and the way to achieve them, types of basic knowledge, knowledge recognition tools, arguments and techniques, knowledge maps and its types and their application, providing knowledge and codifications and documentation and finally the description of various forms of knowledge. The paper’s approach is descriptive-analytical one. However, the research methodology according to the patterns of interpretiveness is phenomenology and narrative one. Implementation and effective use of knowledge management in the SCI requires systemic infrastructure as well as organizational commitments for the application of knowledge in current activities at all organizational levels. The patterns presented in this study make it possible to use the components, processes and mechanism in the SCI to achieve the desired knowledge situation. Therefore, by using foresaid patterns, we would be able to solve problems and even without background and novel one. These patterns allow the SCI’s staff, partners and customers to access the database and knowledge storage. Knowledge system enables the SCI to meet the needs of customers more quickly and increases the center's proximity to customers. Therefore, customer satisfaction expected to increase by quickly identifying and resolving their problems.

  According to a rule known as the Okan Law, for one percent decrease (increase) in the unemployment rate, the economic growth rate will increase (decrease) by approximately 0.3 percent. In other words, there is a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the economic growth rate. This study examines the establishment of this relationship. Contrary to expectations, the relationship between these two variables is not fixed. To show this through the cross-correlation coefficient with different delays, the relationship between these two variables in Iran and 10 selected countries Germany, France, UK, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea, Philippines and Turkey over a period of 30 years was examined and the result Showed that the correlation between these two variables has different patterns in different countries. In Iran and Germany, these two variables are correlated only in the long run.

 In this paper, a structured framework for determining the optimal dose of the first phase in leukemia patients is presented. And here we describe and discuss the key parameters that are needed to set up and run a CRM trial. These are: number of doses; maximum tolerable dose; Target Toxicity Level Dose-toxicity model; Dose-toxicity skeleton; Sample size and cohort size and Stopping rules.

 One of the major problems in using wind energy is that wind-generated electricity is more unstable than electricity generated by other sources, and therefore integrating wind energy use with traditional power generation systems can be a challenge. This problem can be effectively reduced by having accurate information about the mean and wind speed volatilities. Therefore, in this paper, we model the average and wind speed volatilities using time series models. For this purpose, we examine different types of GARCH models. The data studied is the weekly average wind speed from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2016 in Bandar Anzali meteorological station, which includes 783 observations. For modeling, first a moving average autoregressive model is fitted to the data of this station for the average wind speed, then for the residuals obtained from the model fit, we use a variety of GARCH models including GARCH models, GARCH in mean and asymmetric GARCH models. Finally, using the Bayesian information criterion among all fitted models, we select the best model for modeling wind speed volatilities at this station and conclude that the asymmetric ARMA-EGARCH model is suitable for wind speed modeling.

 Marriage, along with the mechanisms of realization and the order and arrangements related to it, is one of the most important social, cultural and biological phenomena that is both affected by the changes in society and influential on it. In recent decades, despite the relative continuity in some aspects, attitudes and behaviors related to marriage in Iran, the timing of marriage has experienced significant changes. The purpose of this article is to examine the changes in marriage timing in Iranian society in the last three decades. The research method is secondary analysis of census data from 1986 to 2016. Two indicators of celibacy ratio and the age specific first marriage rate have been used to examine the timing of marriage. The results showed that the ratio of celibacy of women at young age (24-15 years) has decreased, but in contrast, the ratio of celibacy of men at the age of early marriage and before the age of 30 has increased. The results also showed that the definite celibacy of women and men increased. however, the rate of definite celibacy for women is about twice that of definite celibacy for men. Adopting policies to boost the economy and encourage young people to get married on time can reduce the celibacy of men and women.

Human capital is a prerequisite for sustainable development; since education has the most human capital, paying attention to it will not only ensure individual security but also ensure the security of society. Therefore, understanding the education sector in a wide range of dimensions has been considered by researchers and policy makers. The National Education Account is a framework for measuring the education sector in the economy. This account is an information system about the financial flows of the education sector, while complementing the information set such as the number of schools, students, classes, teachers, infrastructure and equipment. In this research, the national account of education in the Iran for 1396, using primary and secondary data, has been prepared and calculated. In this way, both the registration information of the relevant executive bodies and the census plan of adult education have been implemented to achieve the required information. According to the results, the share of value added of the education sector in GDP at current prices was 4.1%. General secondary and technical and vocational secondary education with 30%, had the highest share of value added among the sub-sectors of education. The share of value added created by the public sector was 68% and 15.2% of the compensation of services is related to the education sector. The highest number of employees in this sector with a share of 43% is the general secondary and technical and vocational secondary sectors. In terms of capital formation, the share of capital formation in this sector of the total economy is 2.6 percent, while general secondary and technical and vocational secondary education with a ratio of 31 percent had the largest share of capital formation in the education sector.

  According to the importance of presenting change estimation of labor force survey indicators along with their variance, in this paper, the use of Jackknife method in estimating variance of changes has been investigated. Then, the effect of nonresponse primary sampling units on estimating the variance of changes has been studied by use of Jackknife method via intensive simulation study. Further that, the effect of nonresponse on estimating the variance of key estimations changes has been investigated based on labor force survey data of 2009 and 2010. The results of this study show that if a pseudo-district is nonresponse from a specific point of time in consecutive survey periods, this will affect the estimation of variance of changes of key estimations, however this effect may be small.

  Since the misery index directly affects the welfare of society, it is of great economic and political importance and one of the most important criteria for measuring the success and survival of governments depends on their success in reducing inflation and unemployment and strengthening economic stability and growth. Based on the benefits of examining the misery index and its importance and necessity in advancing the political goals of governments by creating a suitable environment for economic growth and providing social welfare by controlling inflation and reducing unemployment, this article explains the relationship between the misery index and economic growth. Provinces of Iran in the period of 1397-1390 EViews environment using Vector Autoregression Model, Granger causality test and using fully modified least squares method in justice-seeking and moderate governments, its long-term relations have been studied. The results of this study explain the significant impact of economic growth on the misery index in the provinces of Iran. Also, the results of this study explain the negative and significant long-term negative impact of the misery index on economic growth. The percentage decreases. The positive effect of export development, increasing provincial development expenditures, improving labor productivity and improving the combined index of the innovation system on the economic growth of the provinces of Iran are other results of this study.

 With the industrialization of societies, the issue of employment also faced changes. specially For women, with the increase in the level of education, their desire to do jobs that were exclusive to men in the past, has become a tendency to engage in social activities along with men. Men also try to enter the labor market as soon as possible due to family responsibilities and the duty of providing for the family. The duration of unemployment is one of the key indicators of the labor market, and the higher it is, the more severe its social and economic consequences will be. In this article, while examining the duration of unemployment (short-term and long-term) and the reasons for leaving the job of the previously employed unemployed in comparison between two groups of men and women, it has been tried to study the duration of employment and their persistence in the labor market during the years of 1999 - 1384 to be paid. The results indicate that in the last fifteen years, the duration of unemployment has been different between men and women. On average, more than 30% of men and nearly 50% of women have been waiting to find a job for more than a year. In the group of men between 2014 and 2019, "temporary nature of work" was the first effective factor in leaving a job (except for 2016) and in the group of women from 2011 to 2018, "low income" was always the most effective factor in leaving a job. Is Also, during the years 2016 to 2018, the pattern of employment history and in other words, persistence in the labor market, was slightly different for men and women, so that as the duration of employment increases, the role of women in the labor market becomes less prominent.

  This paper deals with estimating a population that is largely defined by the fact that its size, composition, and distribution are not readily accessible from census data in the U.S. and the other countries that use the De Jure concept of population. The population in question is based on the De Facto concept, which involves the estimation of people where they are found rather than where they usually reside. In a country where the national statistical office uses the De Jure concept, estimating the De Facto population as well as its components is an important, but not easy task. It is important because of the many uses for estimates of the De Facto population; it is difficult because the data that can be used to estimate a De Facto population are skimpy. In an effort to develop this field of population estimation more fully we provide an equation to define the De Facto population as well as an example of its use. We describe and discuss each of the components of this equation and also provide examples of estimates of its direct components and an implied component – the daytime population. Although we view a population impacted by a disaster as distinct from a De Facto population, we include a discussion of it here since many of the methods used to estimate a De Facto population are applicable.