fuzzy-delphi approach

The aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive model for stock price forecasting in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) using a mixed Delphi-fuzzy approach of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The model incorporated technical, fundamental, macroeconomic, and emotional factors. In this study, the fuzzy Delphi method was employed to identify key criteria from the investor’s perspective among the 54 stock price prediction criteria extracted from the existing literature. Subsequently, the interpretive structural modeling method was utilized to examine the relationships between these criteria and establish a hierarchical model. The findings of the ISM revealed that the price per share and the money flow index held significant positions at the bottom of the hierarchy and exerted a strong driving force. Among the criteria occupying lower positions in the hierarchy, the exchange rate and the power indicator relative and exponential moving averages were identified as the most influential indicators.

The purpose of this research is to identify and prioritize the key indicators of the visual merchandising of the online store.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey research in terms of method. This research is based on quantitative and qualitative approach. The statistical population of the research includes all marketing managers of companies that have internet sales, as well as university professors in Ardabil province, and a sample of 24 people was selected using the purposeful sampling method. In the qualitative part, interviews have been used to identify the indicators of the visual merchandising of the online store. After compiling the interview and collecting its data, the validity and reliability of the interview was tested using the CVR relative content validity index and Cohen’s kappa reliability index. In the quantitative section, the tool for collecting information is a questionnaire. In this way, the indicators identified in the interview were provided to the sample members in the form of a questionnaire to be used in the fuzzy Delphi method. To measure the validity and reliability of the research questionnaire, the method of content validity and reliability was used based on the degree of inconsistency, which is equal to 0.39 have been. Regarding the method of data analysis, in the qualitative part of the research, Atlas.ti software was used, and in the quantitative part, the fuzzy Delphi method was used.

According to the findings of the research, the most important indicators of the visual merchandising of the online store are: image size, number of images, font type, font size, font color, displaying images in a fixed or moving form, image color. The background, the color of the product images and around the products, product categories, the size of the side of the site, the content of the side of the site, how to arrange the images, the lighting of the site page, the activation of the images, menu ads, clickable, non-clickable, automatic and ..., changeable background, flat or 3D images, use of human image or animation, displaying images horizontally or vertically, sound, music and video, graphic design of the site and site content.

The results of the research include the identification and prioritization of the most important key indicators of the visual merchandising of the online store. Finally, 22 determining factors regarding the visual merchandising of the online store were identified.

The current research was conducted with the aim of understanding the virtual leadership style and analyzing its opportunities and challenges in international businesses. According to the research approach , the statistical population of the research consists of 17 professors and managers of private organizations, who were selected based on the principle of theoretical adequacy and targeted sampling. The data collection tool in the qualitative part of the semi-structured interview, whose validity was confirmed through content validity and its reliability with the help of intra-coder and inter-coder reliability. On the other hand, the data collection tool in the quantitative section is the Delphi questionnaire, which was confirmed using content validity and inconsistency rate, respectively. It should be noted that the data obtained in the qualitative section were analyzed using the Atlas software. Analysis coding method and opportunities and challenges of virtual leadership in international businesses were identified. Also, in order to determine the amount and degree of importance of the results in the quantitative part, this was done using the fuzzy Delphi method. The results show that creating multi-purpose teams, solving social and global issues, improving creativity and innovation, selecting top talents and reducing costs are the most important virtual leadership opportunities in business and They are international works. On the other hand, weak information literacy, lack of appropriate communication infrastructure, cultural and linguistic diversity, education and learning, and conflicts with policies, laws and regulations are the most important challenges of virtual leadership in international businesses.

Knowledge inertia is the tendency to rely on past procedures, knowledge, or experience to address new issues and problems. In other words, it considers the future as today. In fact, individuals and organizations rely on their previous knowledge and experience to navigate unprecedented and new conditions. Therefore, the present study was conducted to analyze the consequences of knowledge inertia in knowledge-based companies.
The current research utilizes a mixed methods approach, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods within the inductive-deductive paradigm. It is also practical in terms of its purpose and exploratory in terms of its nature and method. It is important to note that the statistical population for both the qualitative and quantitative parts of the research consists of experts, including managers of knowledge-based companies in Lorestan province and professors from the management department of Lorestan University. A purposeful sampling method was used to select 14 individuals as sample members. Therefore, according to the principle of theoretical sufficiency (which occurs when the researcher has gathered all available data and information necessary to understand the phenomenon and gain knowledge), the necessary data were collected to the fullest extent. It should be noted that in the qualitative aspect of the thematic analysis approach, apart from reviewing articles, books, and magazines, semi-structured interviews were also conducted. The validity and reliability of these interviews were assessed using the CVR coefficient and the Kappa-Cohen test, respectively. Confirmed. In the quantitative section, the data collection tool is the Delphi questionnaire. Its validity and reliability were confirmed using content validity and inconsistency rate, respectively.
The current research utilizes a mixed approach (qualitative and quantitative). The results obtained in the qualitative part indicate the identification of the consequences of knowledge inertia in knowledge-based companies. The results of this section, following data analysis using the coding approach (open, central, and selective coding) and Atlas.ti software, reveal fifteen factors as consequences of knowledge inertia in knowledge-seeking companies. In the quantitative aspect of the research, the fuzzy Delphi method was employed to prioritize the consequences of knowledge inertia in scientific companies. The results indicate that the disclosure of the organization's strategies, the enhancement of predictability in the organization's operations, and the increase in stagnation and intellectual inertia are significant outcomes. The most significant consequences of knowledge inertia in knowledge-based companies are the loss of creativity and innovation, resistance to change, reduced performance, diminished organizational learning, and decreased agility and flexibility.
Knowledge is considered one of the most fundamental and crucial assets for competing in the new millennium. No matter how many resources an organization has, if it does not leverage modern knowledge and science, its resources will remain stagnant and it will be practically unable to use them optimally. Acquiring knowledge and leveraging it can enhance the organization's growth and excellence, ultimately improving its competitive position. In other words, knowledge determines the efficient and effective utilization of other resources for the organization. In this way, the dominance of knowledge inertia causes the organization to cease acquiring new knowledge and learning, and instead rely on outdated versions and strategies to solve its issues and challenges. In other words, stagnation and intellectual inertia within the organization are increasing day by day. It should be noted that the organization is losing the ability to generate new and original ideas, as well as other methods and techniques to address recurring threats and ultimately predict competitors' actions. On the other hand, knowledge inertia poses a challenge by hindering the organization's ability to respond quickly, effectively, and efficiently to the opportunities created in the environment. This distortion affects the organization's agility and speed of action.

 The aim of this study was to analyze the consequences of political networking in the policy-making system in governmental organizations in Lorestan province.

Design/Methodology/Approach: 

The statistical population of the study consists of managers of governmental organizations in Lorestan province. Using the principle of theoretical adequacy and purposeful sampling method, 16 of them were selected as sample members. In the qualitative part of the research, semi-structured (in-depth) interviews were used to collect data, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed using CVR coefficient and Kappa-Cohen test, respectively, and the data obtained from the interview using software Atlas.ti and the coding method of analysis and the consequences of political networking in the policy system were identified. On the other hand, in the quantitative part, a questionnaire was used to collect information, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed by content validity and incompatibility rate. 

Research Findings:

 The findings of the qualitative section indicate that sixteen factors were identified as consequences of political networking. Also, the findings of the quantitative section are prioritizing and recognizing the degree of importance of the consequences of political networking in the policy-making system using the fuzzy Delphi approach

Limitations & Consequences: 

The neglect of political networking, especially in domestic research, has led the present study to reduce the aforementioned theoretical and conceptual gap.

Practical Consequences: 

 Political networking has the potential to facilitate policy-making in complex situations by injecting new strategies and policies.
Innovation or value of the Article: This study analyzes the consequences of political networking in a way that has not been used before, which provides a more complete concept.

An intelligent network agility model and technology, knowledge-based, new, service-oriented, highly economical, low-cost allowing for virtual capabilities and resources. In this research, it has been attempted to determine the effective components of cloud supply agility. Identify and evaluate the effectiveness of each enabler on the results. In this study, the relationship between supply chain agility (with regard to enablers and capabilities) and cloud generation has been investigated in order to quantify the potential impact of ICT strategies on supply chain agility. The method of implementation was descriptive modeling and we tried to finalize the conceptual model using field study through interview and questionnaire (in- and out-of-company experts) with experts and experts in order to provide unit output for agility as well as rate. Their relevance is based on the fuzzy Swaraj model (at ISACO) And refinement of our conceptual model of fuzzy Delphi approach (panel of experts) and using a mathematical model based) ANFIS five inputs and one output) has been trained. The results of this research are identifying the empowering components of the application of productive technologies as well as the effective components in the form of organizational agility (results). The results of this research can help organizations to make decisions about investment in emerging technologies. It can help systematize, intelligently select new technologies, as well as be effective, efficient and adapt to the level of agility needed.

Strategic renewal provides the basis for a dynamic strategic fit between the organization and the environment. Although strategic renewal is very important in today's changing world and the main reason for the failure of organizations can be attributed to it, no coherent research has been done in this regard. Thus, the aim of the present study is to identify and explain the prerequisites and consequences of strategic renewal in state-owned companies. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and method, descriptive-survey and is among mixed researches. In the qualitative section, 15 management professors participated using semi-structured interviews, and in the quantitative section, 26 middle and senior managers of state-owned companies affiliated to the Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran participated using a pairwise comparison questionnaire. Atlas.ti software was used to encode the data and fuzzy Delphi fan was used to prioritize the answers. Findings showed that organizational culture, economic resources, technology and strategic human resources are the most important factors in creating strategic renewal and increasing productivity, trust and satisfaction of stakeholders and strategic agility are the most important consequences of strategic renewal. It is valuable considering that the research results inform managers and decision makers of the organization about the importance of strategic renewal and its consequences and provide the ground for strategic development of the company by using the factors affecting the implementation of strategic renewal.

Over the past decades, women have been more exposed to sexual discrimination than men. This is because women did not have the capabilities and facilities needed to empower  themselves and reduce poverty. Empowerment is essential for the empowerment of low-income people to achieve their rights. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and introduce womenchr('39')s empowerment methods.

The present research is applied in terms of purpose and is descriptive. The present research is a quantitative and descriptive-analytical study. This research seeks to identify and prioritize the ways to empower female-headed households with Fuzzy Delphi (F-DELPHI) and Network Analysis Process (NAP). Data collection tools were interviews and questionnaires. the interview and questionnaires were conducted in the well-being office of the  city of Savadkuh (Polsefid).

Based on the results of library studies and interviews, possible ways of empowering female-headed households were identified and categorized into three levels of person, family, and society. After distributing the questionnaire among the experts of the field and prioritizing the possible ways, the main and important ways identified were promoting social health, providing professional training, providing life skills training, creating markets, rehabilitation, providing the facilities, providing insurance and social security services, providing necessary goods, allocating more Funds for organizations to support women and offering allowances to improve individual welfare.

The results showed that personal empowerment-based ways have a higher priority than ways to empower through direct financial assistance. These ways attracted the experts attention.

Political entrepreneur stimulates fundamental changes in society, which through creative and transformative actions has a tremendous impact on policies and political institutions.

The aim of the present study the implications of political entrepreneurship in policy-making were analyzed using the fuzzy Delphi approach. This research is among the researches mixed with a qualitative and a quantitative approach which is descriptive-survey in terms of purpose, application and nature and method. the statistical population of the study consists of managers of government organizations in Lorestan province. Using the principle of theoretical adequacy and purposeful sampling method, 18 of them were selected as sample members. In the qualitative part of the research, semi-structured (in-depth) interviews were used to collect data, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed using the CVR coefficient and Kappa-Cohen test, respectively, and the data obtained from the interview using the software. Atlas. ti and the coding method were analyzed and the consequences of political entrepreneurship were identified. on the other hand, in the quantitative part, a pairwise comparison questionnaire was used to collect information, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed using content validity and incompatibility rate.

The results of the research indicate that based on judgments and surveys of experts, nineteen factors were introduced as the consequences of political entrepreneurship. The results also show that attracting public opinion, developing political life and forming coalitions and groups, accurate internal and external monitoring, policy direction, injecting new and innovative policies and regulating relations in the network are the most important consequences of political entrepreneurship in the field of policymaking.

To increase the ability of individuals, groups and parties to continue lawful participation in the political arena, as well as to improve the accountability of the political system, policymakers are advised to pay special attention to entrepreneurs in the field of politics to transform the policy. And policies to solve the problems of the organization and society

Undoubtedly, mum effect is a source of ignorance; when mum effect among employees of the organization, ignorance increases, and learning and adaptability of the organization diminishes. The present study aims to identify and explore the effective antecedents and consequences of human resources mum effect using fuzzy Delphi approach in governmental organizations. This research has a combined quantitative and qualitative method and inductive deductive paradigm. It is an applied research in terms of purpose, and terms of the nature and methods is a descriptive survey. The statistical population of the present study consists of knowledge workers of Lorestan province, whose 28 experts have been selected based on the principle of theoretical saturation and using purposeful sampling method. In the qualitative part of the study, semi-structured interviews were used for data collection. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were verified using CVR coefficient and Kaplan-Cohen test. In addition, a quantitative comparison questionnaire was used to collect information. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire was verified using content validity and test-retest. In the qualitative section, the data obtained from the interview were analyzed using the Atlas.ti software and the coding method and the antecedents and consequences of the human resources mum effect has been identified. Also, in the quantitative part of the research, using the Delphi Fuzzy technique, the prioritization of human resource mum effect antecedents and consequences were done and the most ones were identified. The results of the research indicate that among the antecedents of human resources mum effect, organizational culture, time constraints, compatibility with the norms and values of the organization, ineffective communication and preservation of reputation and reputation are the most important factors causing mum effect in governmental organizations. The results also showed that reduction of learning, organizational indifference, loss of trust and morale of employees, decrease of creativity and innovation, increase of stress and decrease of individual and organizational performance are among the most important consequences or outcomes of mum effect of human resources in governmental organizations.

Nowadays most organizations seek for excellence indicators to implement and gain promotion of quality level of services and products and ultimately, value creation for stakeholders. Hence, excellence indicators are considered as an operational framework in the context of improvement of organizations performance. The objective of this study is specifying the excellence indicators of strategic knowledge management. Thus having used the literature review, fuzzy Delphi approach has been applied to refine and select desired indicators of strategic knowledge management. The used methodology is consisted of four stages and has been refined by Cheng and Lin approach. The population of the study includes 30 industrial and academic experts. In order to analyze the indicators, the initial 52 indicators derived from literature review and five models of excellence model has been selected and by means of fuzzy Delphi method the experts’ ideas and open question in questionnaires has been refined. The result was 80 verified indicators. As a result, by using the indexes extracted, there will be an Excellence route for the organizations and can be achieved as soon as possible in the organization's achievements.

Organizations search for appropriate knowledge management strategies for successful knowledge management implementation. So, it is necessary to select and apply suitable strategies at the first step. Knowledge management maturity models help organizations to identify maturity level and effective knowledge management strategies. This paper tries to present a model for knowledge management strategy selection according to Hansen et al research (codification/personalization) due to maturity level.10 knowledge management experts were surveyed for this purpose. Knowledge management strategy model was developed after defuzzification of experts’ opinions by Center of gravity (COG).
The results showed that organization with low level of maturity, tend to use customization while organization with high level of maturity, select codification strategy.