fuzzy delphi method

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework of effective anti-fraud and financial corruption criteria in public and private sector with emphasia on the fraud triangle.In order to achieve the purpose of the study, by studying the literature and the background of the, a set of effective factors were extracted in the framework of anti-fraud and financial corruption. Then, by implementing the fuzzy Delphi method, we identified the most important influencing factors in this framework, which is based on 29 criteria and 159 sub-criteria. In the next step, after the finalization of the framework, by using the best-worst approach, the main dimensions and criteria of the framework were prioritized.The results of the fuzzy Delphi method show that 141 sub-criteria were confirmed out of a total of 159 sub-criteria . Also, the results of ranking the main dimensions and criteria using the best-worst method in this study show that the most important dimensions of the fraud triangle are "opportunity", "justification" and "motivation" respectively.The results of the research help regulatory organizations to develop integrated anti-corruption laws for companies by industry. Also, companies should strengthen the most important anti- fraud and corruption, criteria such as; environmental factors, corporate governance, motivational methods, implementation of laws and regulations, transparency and disclosure, risk management, information and communication technology, interaction of organizations with each other, business partners, attitude and way of thinking of managers, whistleblowing, and human resources procedures in the dimensions of the fraud triangle.

Bankruptcy is a matter that must be determined by the court. According to the law, in order to prove bankruptcy, the merchant must present his financial and commercial documents to the court, and the court will issue his bankruptcy order after examination. This ruling contains contents that have many legal effects. Due to the specialization of the bankruptcy investigation process and the need to examine the financial books of the merchant, judges use the expertise of forensic accountants to make decisions and issue judgments, so forensic accountants have an important role in bankruptcy verification. On the other hand, professional standards and operating frameworks that forensic accountants use to perform expert duties have not been developed in iran. The purpose of this research is to provide a model that can be a guide for certified experts of the justice in this field. In this research, first by studying the conceptual foundations, 68 forensic accounting techniques related to the bankruptcy were extracted. Then by implementing the fuzzy delphi method and using a questionnaire, the opinions of 25 qualified elites in this field were collected regarding the mentioned techniques. Finally, 59 techniques, which according to elites, can be useful in the expert process, are identified and a model consisting of five parts "preliminary survey", "detailed investigation", "information gathering", "documents review" and "comprehensive data analysis" was presented. Forensic accountants can plan and implement the expert process in the field of bankruptcy by using the techniques presented in each of these sections. The results of this research can be used in the formulation of professional standards of forensic accounting in the field of bankruptcy and similar issues.

This research seeks to provide a model of factors that affect external audits of banks on the basis of 29 Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision.

To identify the effective factors in the qualitative segment, the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) was used, in addition to interviews with the selected experts through purposive sampling. In the quantitative segment, questionnaires were distributed among the banking experts and supervisors, as well as auditors to develop a model. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) and PLS software.

The findings suggested that 31 items are effective as latent variables include selecting external audits, executing audit operations, and reporting, on the external audits of banks basis of 29 Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision.

The obtained effective factors are a turning point to align the external auditors and banking supervisors in Iran to substantially improve the health of the banking network of the country and protect people’s interests, especially the depositors.

Contribution:

 Taking into account that this research is the first study on bank audit and banking supervision emphasizing the international documents in banking, it has suggested an appropriate framework to audit banks and interact between the external auditors and banking supervisors. Furthermore, its results help expand the literature in the field of banking supervision and audit.

The earnings forecasts report is considered as one of the most important and effective reports in investors' decision-making. The purpose of this study is to present an earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market. To achieve this research goal, the earnings forecasts reporting framework was identified first by studying the theoretical foundations and the background of the research, as well as interviewing 21 experts using the snowball method and the theme analysis method. Then, through the implementation of the fuzzy Delphi method and solicitation of opinions from 183 experts using a questionnaire and targeted judgmental sampling method, a consensus was reached on the reporting framework, resulting in the presentation of the earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market. The research population included university faculty members, employees in regulatory organizations, investors, auditors, and providers of financial information. The research results showed that out of 122 detailed themes extracted through theme analysis, categorized into six main themes and 14 sub-themes, 97 detailed themes obtained the consensus among the Delphi group, thereby forming components of the earnings forecasts reporting framework. The main elements of the earnings forecasts reporting framework encompass generalities, environmental fields, characteristics, consequences, challenges, and evaluation. The findings of this research can serve as a guide for developing financial reporting standards and modifying procedures and regulations.

The management forecasts earnings is one of the disclosed information outside the financial statements, which reflects the management's forecast about the future prospects. This report is one of the most important sources of information for companies in the capital market. Corporate management possesses considerable information advantages about contingencies related to future profitability. Management disclosures are considered a valuable and potential source of information for investors. Investors are interested in estimating the future benefits of their investment so that they can assess receiving future cash earnings as well as the value of their shares. Therefore, the expected earnings from companies are important for investors and beneficiaries to make investment decisions.
How to present the earnings forecast report has been a challenging issue in recent years. Therefore, in the current situation, examining the framework and reporting method of earnings forecasting in the Iranian capital market using the opinions of experts is regarded as an essential need.
Considering the importance of earnings forecast reporting for investors, the problem of the current research is: What is the earnings forecast reporting framework in Iran's capital market? Additionally, what are the components of this framework based on the country's economic and capital market conditions?

Literature Review:

There are several reasons for disclosing the information of managers and publishing the earnings forecast report. One reason for this is agency theory, which refers to the conflict of interests between managers and owners. In addition, we can refer to the Signaling theory, Expectation adjustment hypothesis, and Legal liability hypothesis.
The primary framework of earnings forecasting reporting includes the purpose, users, limitations, environmental fields, characteristics, and consequences.
Hirst et al. (2008) provided a framework regarding management earnings forecasting. They categorized earnings forecasts into three components including antecedents, characteristics, and consequences. They concluded that earnings forecasting characteristics are less explored in both theoretical and empirical research, despite managers having the most control over this component.
Preussner and Aschauer (2022) synthesized the literature on management earnings forecasts and adaption mechanisms, combined existing theories into a unifying framework. Overall, the literature review provides strong support for a positive correlation between the extent and credibility of management earnings forecasts, on the one hand, and stock returns, share liquidity, and analyst coverage, on the other hand. Earnings forecasts tend to be optimistically biased, with a positive correlation with forecast uncertainty, earnings flexibility, financial distress, investor sentiment, and the share price dependency of managers' remuneration. Firm growth, legal liability, and litigation risk are significantly associated with forecast pessimism.
Until 2017, listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange published an independent report titled earnings forecasts report. The Securities and Exchange Organization announced in a notification that since January 2018, the Issuers are not allowed to publish earnings forecasts report. Instead, they are required to prepare and disclose the management's interpretive report alongside the interim and annual financial statements. Recently, as of July 2021, the return of the earnings forecast report was announced with a new procedure for five industries.

To achieve the goal of the research, the primary framework was first identified by studying the literature review and theoretical background. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with 21 experts using the snowball sampling method. The data from the interview was analyzed using the theme analysis method and the earnings forecasts reporting framework was extracted according to the country's environmental characteristics. Finally, the fuzzy Delphi method was implemented and opinions were gathered from 183 experts through a questionnaire and targeted judgment sampling method to reach a consensus on the earnings forecasts reporting framework.
The statistical population of the research included university faculty members, employees in regulatory organizations, investors, auditors, and providers of financial information.

The research results showed that out of 122 detailed themes extracted through theme analysis, which were categorized into 6 main themes and 14 sub-themes, 97 detailed themes obtained consensus from the Delphi group and were identified as components of the earnings forecasts reporting framework. The main themes of the framework are generalities, environmental fields, characteristics, consequences, challenges, and evaluation. Each main theme consists of sub-themes. For example, the generalities theme includes sub-themes such as purpose, users, and limitations. The environmental fields theme covers aspects related to the forecast environment and company characteristics. The characteristics theme encompasses the method of publishing, features, text of the report, and assurance. The consequences theme addresses the consequences of publishing and non-publishing. The challenges theme explores the challenges in the environment and the company. Lastly, the evaluation theme focuses on the evaluation of the disclosure procedure.

The findings of this research can serve as a valuable guide for developing financial reporting standards and modifying procedures and regulations.
The paper has some limitations. The use of questionnaires, which is common in humanities research, is inherently limited, and this research is no exception. The time limitation, the diverse knowledge base of the experts, and their interest in the research topic may have influenced the quality of the experts' responses to the questionnaire.

This research has presented the earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market, consisting of 6 main themes. The results of this study can help Iran's Accounting Standards Development Committee in developing standards. Furthermore, the Securities and Exchange Organization can use the framework, particularly for the evaluation theme to modify and present regulations related to earnings forecasting reporting. Additionally, investors can use the results of this research to enhance their understanding about the earnings forecast report and make more informed investment decisions. Issuers can also use the framework to improve information disclosure and prepare reports.

I am grateful to all the esteemed professors and experts who helped me in this way. I would also like to express my gratitude to the staff of Allameh Tabataba’i University for their cooperation.

  Relational capital is one of the intangible assets that is defined as the role of the customer in the current and future income of the organization. Therefore, it is important to identify the factors affecting Relational capital.

The present study is applied according to its purpose and descriptive-causal based on the method.

In this research, first the factors affecting the banks' Relational capital were determined performed using the fuzzy Delphi method. Then a questionnaire related to DEMITEL was developed and provided to the experts in order to explain and evaluate the cause-and-effect relationships between the factors affecting the banks' Relational capital.

According to the fuzzy technique, the most important factor in the Relational capital of banks was the dispersion of ATMs, which shows the direct relationship of people with the bank at the community level. Also, according to DEMITEL analysis, finance and customer orientation were the most influential factors and customer orientation and absentee services were the most influential factors.

The prevalence and powerful consequencesof earning management, the decisive role of banks in the economy of eachcountry and their operational function in the field of accounting and financialreporting allow accounting studies to survey banking industry. Due to the lackof qualitative studies, the paper aims to identify and rank interventional andcontextual conditions and consequences of earning management in this industry.

The methodology of research is FuzzyDelphi and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process using an interview and aquestionnaire. Using snowball sampling, 15 experts in this industry wereinterviewed. Then the questionnaires of Delphi and pairwise comparisons weregiven to 23 people participated in the preparation, analysis and auditing offinancial statements of the banks. The time domain of this study is 2019 and2020. 

The effective interventionalconditions on earning management in the banking industry are as follows, respectively: "Economic environment pressure", "Factors involved in the level of financial transparency", "Industry-specific factors," and "Legal environment factors"; also, contextual conditions involve "economic", "cultural", "regulatory/legal" and "industry-specific" contexts, respectively. Furthermore, the consequences of this phenomenon are as follows, respectively: "Distortion of Financial Reporting", "SocialConsequences", "Economic and Monetary Market Consequences", and "Consequences of Impact on the Capital Market".

Becoming a culture of profit payment, bank survival motivation, special management motivation, quality of accountingstandards and legal motivation are the main conditions affecting the earningmanagement; also, its main consequences are accumulation of toxic assets, systematic corruption, sharp rise in inflation, and the increased informationasymmetry. Contribution: In addition to developing literatureand related theories, these findings can be useful for investors, The CentralBank, standard setters, inspectorates and auditors.

Since the two essential characteristics of the audit profession are serving the community and gaining the public's trust, auditors' social responsibility is important in promoting social trust, information transparency, and public confidence. The end-product of auditing is used by investors, creditors, regulators, governments and the general public, the perception of audit quality varies among stakeholders, and is a multidimensional concept. because previous research has identified only a limited group to determine the factors affecting audit quality and given the environmental conditions of the auditing profession in Iran, many areas that could affect the quality of auditing have been overlooked. This research seeks to enhance this understanding Level of social trust by identifying and ranking auditor quality improvement strategies Is the view of stakeholders .In this study, based on the areas of the financial reporting supply chain and using the Delphi method and the trapezoidal fuzzy entropy, various aspects of audit quality and rating. The strategies for its improvement were studied. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in nature.From the experts' point of view, strategies such as: "increasing the accountability of managers, exercising strong oversight over the activities of auditing firms to ensure full professional independence, supervision and professional care ؛ Training and quality control, evidence-based commenting, applying secure referral guidelines and contract pricing, and strong oversight to prevent job referrals, increasing auditors' legal responsibility for professional reporting, monitoring of the activities of the institutions, committed and independent use of financial managers, "to improve audit quality are of special importance.

Fraudulent financial reporting is a major concern of the audit profession. In this regard, auditors are responsible according to auditing standards. Given the importance of identification and assessment of the risk of fraud in an audit of financial statements and the importance of responses of auditors, the purpose of this study is to provide a model for identification and assessment of the risks of material misstatement due to fraud in an audit of financial statements.  

In order to achieve this goal, firstly, researches in this field were studied to identify the effective indicators on assessment of the risk of fraud and other effective indicators were extracted by interviewing experts. Experts' opinion on the extracted indicators was collected through a questionnaire and were agreed upon through using Fuzzy Delphi method and expert opinion poll. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis test was used to determine the factor load of each indicator of each component. The relationship between the influence of different indicators on assessment of the risk of fraud in the form of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was tested and the research model was presented.  

The results of the study showed that 146 out of 162 indicators extracted from theoretical foundations and researches and interviews, in the form of 5 components, reached the Delphi group general consensus and the results of performing a confirmatory factor analysis showed 144 indicators were of sufficient importance.  

The components that influence the assessment of the risk of fraud in an audit of financial statements, importance respectively, are: the characteristics of the client, the characteristics of the audit firm, the characteristics of performing the audit, the environmental characteristics and the personal characteristics of the auditor. Of the 53 indicators approved in the component of client characteristics, five important indicators are: lack of sufficient managers experience; lack of fair dealing with staff; lack of appropriate work environment for employees; lack of job security; ignoring the need to monitor or reduce the risks associated with assets misappropriation. Of the 23 indicators approved in the component of audit firm characteristics, five important indicators are: having sufficient auditing tools; auditor access to databases; giving auditors reasonable rights and benefits; adequate investment in auditing; and fair dealing with Auditors. Of the 27 indicators approved in the component of the characteristics of performing the audit, five important indicators are: adjusting the audit plan and auditing tests in responses to fraud risk factors; adequate understanding of the client and its environment, including internal controls; appropriate allocation and oversight of the audit team; the discussion among audit team members; and auditor access to databases. Of the 19 indicators approved in the component of environmental characteristics, five important indicators are: lack of culture of accountability and answering; sophisticated rules and regulations; numerous laws and regulations; lack of independent oversight bodies; and inexpressive laws and regulations. Of the 22 indicators approved in the component of personal characteristics of the auditor, five important indicators are: Ability to properly understand evidence and identify evidence inconsistent with other evidence; knowledge and awareness of fraud; responsibility; confidence; ability to identification of intentional identified misstatements.

In this paper, a model for Assessing Efficiency using accounting variables is introduced as a benchmark for performance evaluation. For this purpose, using Fuzzy Delphi method and obtaining opinions of experts through the questionnaire, five output variables and six input variables were identified as effective variables on the performance of the companies. In the next step, using the mathematical model of data envelopment analysis in accordance with the negative data, the number of 210 companies in the 16 Tehran stock exchanges in the 10-year period was compared to the efficiency index and the efficient and inefficient companies were isolated and ranked. Then, using the model facilities, the optimal target function and the amount of deviations of inefficient firms from the efficiency boundary and the time trends of each company were analyzed at the company and industry level.

This study aims to provide a model for executive directors' compensation in private manufacturing companies, based on a balanced scorecard framework. The framework contains retrospective and prospective criteria in four areas of financing, customer affairs, internal processes, and growth and learning issues, which based on them it is possible to evaluate the manager at best and outline the company's future road-map.

The Method of this research is qualitative and of survey type. In the first step, the factors influencing the design of the compensation plan were determined, using the Fuzzy Delphi method and interviewing with 16 academic experts. In the second step, the weight of each of the four balanced scorecard perspectives in the proposed plan was determined, using the survey method and fuzzy analytical hierarchical analysis. In this step, 22 experts, who were CEOs or members of the board of directors of the companies in different industries, completed the research questionnaire.

The main factors of the proposed model were in the three groups of manager characteristics, internal environment characteristics, and external environment characteristics. Based on the findings, in the manager characteristics, the factor of effective communication with the group, and in the proposed plan of research, the growth and learning perspective are the most important.

Achieving the highest coefficient for growth and learning implies that from the perspective of the experts, the underlying changes in allocating compensations to management should have the highest priority.

As the final product of the audit is used by investors, creditors, regulators, governments, and in general the community, the perception of audit quality varies among stakeholders. Since the research has so far only recognized the quality of the audit from the point of view of the people in the profession, and, given the environmental conditions of the audit profession in Iran, many areas that can affect the audit quality are ignored. Moreover, the studies did not provide a comprehensive framework based on the views of stakeholders. Therefore, the use of financial reporting Supply chain areas due to the inclusion of all stakeholders included a comprehensive study on the identification of effective components The quality of audit that comes with the financial reporting cycle is provided. In this study, using the results of the fuzzy Delphi method, the research data were analyzed. In this regard, the major categories, major categories and extraction categories were analyzed from the research data. And was presented as a quality audit model based on financial reporting supply chain. Given the multifaceted quality, from the standpoint of experts and stakeholders, the quality audit model, which includes, (domain, components, dimensions, and content components) is presented. The results of the analysis indicate that the components affecting the quality of audit can be related to the main dimensions of "organizational structure and governance, internal control system, professional standards and regulations for financial reporting, suppliers and suppliers of financial statements, financial statements set , The general jurisdiction of creditors in financial statements, the structure of audit institutions, the implementation of operations and the reporting of crediting in the financial statements, the profession and the audit market. " Meanwhile, the findings reveal many effective factors in different aspects to increase the quality of auditing in Iran. With regard to the components extracted from the research data, a selection of effective components in different domains was presented at the end.

Because of no comprehensive research in this area, the aim of this research is identifying all tax compliance factors for the first time, using the OECD tax compliance model (2004). Using explorative studies and regarding the Iranian environmental conditions, this study categorizes the factors into 8 components and 40 indexes; then it analyzes opinions of 61 experts about the indexes effects on tax compliance, by implementation of Fuzzy Delphi Method. The results show that all factors have impact on tax compliance in exception of the taxpayer type, taxpayer’s revenue type, taxpayer’s occupation, taxpayer’s age, taxpayer’s gender, taxpayer’s religion, taxpayer’s race and nationality, ethnicity backgrounds, establishing tax advisers, social norms, and civil organizations.

FASB and IASB have made some criticisms on current preparation model of Financial Statements (Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement) which includes lack of using a uniform method in preparation and classification of data in financial statements, difficulty in comprehending the link between financial statements, and non-transparency. In this regard, IASB and FASB started a mutual project in 2004 which resulted to publishing a new financial statements presentation model in 2008. However, this new model was unsuccessful in achieving primary goals and for the same reason it has been remained silent since the opinion polling. By adopting an analytical-critical approach, this study uses Chomsky’s Syntax Theory and Shannon's Communication Theory to understand pathology of these criticisms about current preparation model of financial statements. Subsequently, by applying Fuzzy Delphi Method and doing polling from 44 experts and also utilizing Shannon’s Correction Model in general communication system and determining activities as drivers and fundamental basis for preparing financial statements, a new model named Activity-based Financial Reporting has been proposed which is mostly capable in resolving criticisms on the current model of financial statements preparation and achieving the objectives of IASB and FASB new model.

Stock Exchange holds a special place in countries’ financial system and many investors tend to invest (buy and sell) in this market; however, it is considered one of the most high-risk markets. Finding a good place for investment, especially in exchange market, has always been one of the most stressful decisions for investors to make. In such a market, investors who analyze the market with a more accurate vision and buy good shares are successful. To do this kind of analysis, employing a good and powerful investment model is helpful. This study is an effort to determine factors that investors must consider in order to have safe and successful investments. To find the factors, experts’ views are considered. In order to correctly model the conditions of uncertainty, fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) was employed. Research Question In this study, attempts have been made to address the following question: - What are the appropriate factors to evaluate and compare companies? In this study, data was collected through a questionnaire. In order to develop the questionnaire, a list of evaluation factors was gathered from literatures. Nineteen factors were found and put into the questionnaire. Then, experts [4 faculty members and 8 official Stock Exchange specialists (Brokers)] were asked to evaluate the factors by rating them from high to low; they were also asked to add to the list of evaluation factors if necessary. The questionnaire provided respondents with three sets of response choices: high, medium, and low. It is important to mention that faculty were asked to confirm the validity of questionnaire. Gathered data were then processed. Considering the steps of fuzzy Delphi method, certain numbers that were announced by experts must be converted to fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy numbers used in this study were trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Therefore, the fuzzy score for each range (high, medium, low) was found to be (6,8,10,10), (3,4,6,7), and (0,0,2,4) for high, medium, and low range, respectively. Hence, the certain (de-fuzzy) scores for each range were 8.5, 5, and 1.5, respectively. Then, the last step of the first round of fuzzy Delphi method was finished by finding the average of experts’ evaluation of each factor through necessary calculations. In order to reach a consensus on evaluation factors gathered for the purpose of this study, fuzzy Delphi method must be continued. Therefore, a new questionnaire, which was also validated by faculty, was developed. For each expert, the new questionnaire also contained the difference between his/her evaluation number of each factor and the average calculated in previous step. All experts were then asked to either improve or confirm their evaluations. Collecting the second questionnaire, the average of experts’ evaluation numbers for each factor was again calculated. The new averages were compared with corresponding results from previous round and the difference between two numbers for each factor was calculated. In order to reach a consensus on each evaluation factor, it was stipulated that the difference must not change dramatically. The results of the second round reveal that experts reach the consensus on only two factors. Hence, the fuzzy Delphi method must be continued. The process was repeated 5 times until consensus on all factors was reached. Consequently, the qualified evaluation factors must be determined. Based on some investigations, it was decided that only factors with more than 2/3 (approximately 66%) of all scores to be the final factors of this study. It implies that only evaluation factors with scores greater or equal to 6.16 are qualified to be considered. After finishing all required calculation, it was found that 16 factors have the qualified score to be as the final factors. Thus far, final evaluation factors were selected. The final factors that can be categorized in 4 groups of Liquidity, Profitability, Market Value, and Growth are as follows: Quick Ratio, Earnings Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Operating Profit Margin, Basic Earnings Power Ratio (BEP), Dividend Per Share to Price Ratio, Earnings Per Share Coverage, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) to Sales Ratio, Price-Earnings Ratio(P/E), Intrinsic Value Per Share, Equity Growth, Earnings Per Share Growth, Operating Profit Growth, Sales Growth, and Capital Growth. Discussion and In order to be able to invest correctly, employing a good investment model can be very helpful. This study was an effort to determine all important evaluation factors that must be considered by investors to choose a good investment. To find the factors, experts’ opinions were considered. The final results that have been presented as a list of factors, not only must be complete and comprehensive, it also must be easy, user-friendly, and fast. It is important because it serves investors for whom time is an essential factor in investment, especially in a market such as exchange. In this study, to achieve such a result, the following steps were taken: first, searching the literature, a primarily list of important evaluation factors was prepared and experts were asked to evaluate the factors. In selecting the factors, attempts have been made to eschew the redundancy and similarity of factors. It was also tried to choose factors that have huge impact on evaluating companies. Then, all selected factors were put into a questionnaire and distributed between experts. It is important to mention that experts were also asked to add to the list of evaluation factors, if necessary. Adding this option to the questionnaire reduced the possibility of dropping any important factor. Eventually, using fuzzy Delphi method, the best factors were selected and presented as the final result.