delphi technique

The emergence of complex issues has led to the expansion of consensus and collective agreement methods; however, many researchers still mistakenly use these methods interchangeably. Therefore, familiarity with collective agreement methods may be helpful. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of conventional collective agreement methods and state their goals and characteristics for the benefit of researchers.

This study was conducted by reviewing and searching for the keywords Focus Group technique, Nominal group technique, Delphi technique, and Expert panel, whose Persian equivalents are the Delphi technique, expert panel, focus group technique, and nominal group technique, respectively, in reputable Persian-language databases, Magiran, SID, Iran Medex, and English-language databases including PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct, without time limits, in Persian and English. More than 560 articles were identified. After removing duplicates and examining the relevance of titles, the relevance of the subject, and the credibility of the source and accessibility of the article, the remaining 18 articles were reviewed.

This article briefly introduces collective agreement techniques, common questions, appropriate goals of the techniques, and types of collective agreement. Collective decision-making methods in various scientific fields are very helpful in making the most appropriate decisions when faced with complex issues and a lack of sufficient information.

Collective agreement methods are helpful in making the most appropriate decisions regarding ambiguous issues. Therefore, it is suggested that experts design appropriate guidelines to guide young researchers in becoming familiar with the applications of collective agreement methods and choosing the appropriate technique.

Given the rapid pace of changes in the medical field and the necessity for continuous updating of knowledge and skill, lifelong learning has become an indispensable requirement for physicians. This study aimed to identify the development and application of the components related to lifelong learning characteristics and behaviors in general medical course curricula.

 The research was a qualitative approach, utilizing the Delphi method for data collection. The participants consisted of 15 individuals from the fields of medical education, curriculum planning, and medical faculty in Isfahan, Rafsanjan, and Kerman Universities in 2024, who were selected by purposive sampling. Data were collected through a questionnaire combining close-ended questions (5-point Likert scale) and open-ended questions using the Delphi method. Descriptive statistics, including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, interquartile range, and agreement ratio of 4 or more, as well as expert consensus were employed in the analysis of 75%.

Following the first round of Delphi analysis, four components were eliminated with an agreement ratio below 75%. Nine components were identified with a consensus ratio of 93% or higher, including self-education spirit, the enjoyment and utility of learning, creating a sustainable intrinsic motivation for learning, applying continuous learning findings in personal life, a research-oriented mindset, critical thinking, learning management, being a good communicator, and a passion for learning, which reached the highest consensus.

The identified key components reveal that lifelong learning in medicine is a multifaceted process, requiring a complex interplay of attitudes, skills, and behaviors. Fostering these components can contribute to the development of more competent and responsive physicians to meet the evolving healthcare needs of the community.

Reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health hold significant potential to enhance the health and quality of life for the current and future generations, thus they are considered the centerpiece of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Identifying Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and utilizing them in monitoring health programs is crucial for resource management, service quality enhancement, and satisfaction. This study aimed to identify the KPIs for the health management of the population, family, and schools in the Deputy of Health at Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences.

This study is an observational research utilizing the Delphi technique. The research population included 50 managers and staff from the health deputy and health networks. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Initially, a review of literature and organizational documents was conducted to examine all programs related to the management of population, family, and school health, and indicators for each program were extracted separately. Subsequently, over three stages, the opinions and assessments of these individuals were collected and analyzed to reach a consensus on the KPIs. Two Likert scale questionnaires—a three-point scale (inappropriate, no opinion, appropriate) and a nine-point scale—were used to identify and confirm the KPIs. Data analysis was performed using frequency, percentage, and median.

In five health management programs targeting the population, family, and schools, 107 indicators were included the study. The highest number of indicators (over 35 %) in the first Delphi round pertained to maternal health programs. After completing the first round of Delphi, 76 indicators were identified as appropriate by 60 % or more of the participants and entered the second round of Delphi. All 8 indicators for the adolescent, youth, and school health programs advanced to the next round. However, 53.8 % of the indicators related to population and reproductive policies were selected for the subsequent round. Moreover, 8.4 % of the second round indicators (9 indicators) were reviewed in the third round for further experts’ comments, resulting in the approval of 4 key indicators related to the middle-aged and elderly health program as key indicators in this round.

From the total indicators of population health, family, and school health management, 44 indicators were identified and confirmed as KPIs. The middle-aged and elderly health program had the most number of key indicators with 11 indicators, and the adolescent, youth, and school health programs had the fewest number with 6 indicators. Other programs key indicators were equal (9 key indicators for each program). The analysis and evaluation of these indicators by health managers and experts can facilitate effective planning and interventions to improve public health.

Medical sciences universities grapple with high work pressure and the ongoing challenges posed by the pandemic. Addressing the need to bolster organizational adaptability and resilience in the face of these stressors, this study aimed to identify and forecast models that can enhance organizational resilience through a future research lens.

This research follows a developmental-applicative objective by employing a mixed exploratory approach within a qualitative framework. The study's participants encompassed management science experts and senior managers from medical sciences universities, selected based on specific characteristics and criteria. A total of 26 individuals were chosen to form the expert group and Delphi panel using a non-probability targeted (judgmental) sampling method.

Through the Delphi technique and the assessment of various consensus indicators, the study proposes an organizational resilience model incorporating a future research perspective for medical sciences universities. The model comprises 14 dimensions and 71 components, with eight dimensions and 38 components focusing on assessing organizational resilience, and six dimensions and 33 components dedicated to evaluating future research aspects.

The study advocates for officials and managers to use the model's components to enhance the resilience of medical sciences universities, particularly when adopting a future research-oriented approach.

Citizenship sports as a social phenomenon rebuilds society based on promoting a healthy lifestyle through treatment and prevention. The purpose of this study was to explore the factors affecting the development of sports citizenship in Iran, with a focus on the health of citizens.

This research followed a mixed approach (qualitative-quantitative). In the first part, with a qualitative approach and a systematic method, database searches were conducted for studies published in the last 10 years, resulting in 178 studies being identified. After screening the studies based on the established criteria, 17 studies were selected for analysis, and the results of studies were aggregated with the method of document content analysis and coding method, and finally, indicators were extracted. In the second phase, extracted indicators were presented to 12 purposefully selected experts in the form of 53 closed-ended questions with a 5-point Likert scale through the Delphi method. The experts' opinions were used to revise, merge, or eliminate indicators. After reaching a group agreement, the Delphi process was completed in three rounds and the factors influencing the development of Iranian citizenship sports were extracted with an emphasis on citizens' health.

Influential factors in the development of Iranian citizenship sports included behavior stabilization in sports, environmental attractiveness, public service delivery, national planning, effective management, sports structure of the country, assessment and evaluation, Iranian-Islamic capacities, education development, successful scientific models, volunteer support, climatic-geographical factors, family sports infrastructure, educational sports development, economic infrastructure, legal factors, media management, and governance factors.

By implementing changes in macro policies and adopting strategic foresight to prioritize health and enhance societal well-being, sustainable development of citizenship sports will be attained.

This study aims to explore the application of the Delphi method in ranking health, safety, and environmental (HSE) management indicators at the municipal waste landfill in Mashhad.

Initially, relevant criteria and indicators were identified using the Delphi method and a survey of experts, who assigned scores ranging from 1 to 9. Subsequently, the criteria and indicators were prioritized by employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and based on the opinions of 15 experts through pairwise comparisons. The analysis and synthesis of indicators were facilitated using statistical software, such as Expert Choice. 

The highest scores across all three categories pertained to the safety of the burial process, integrity of burial cells, management and treatment of sanitary sewage, leachate collection systems, soil contamination via leachate, control of traffic noise and operations, and adherence to slope guidelines. Conversely, the lowest scores across all categories were associated with the safety of facilities, training, safety of equipment, warning signs, gas collection, and extraction wells, prohibition of entry and animal presence, daily spraying operations aligned with wind direction, landfill gas management, gas collection systems, effluent management parameters, control of traffic noise, levels of odors, and the impact on the greenhouse effect.

This research indicates that the HSE conditions at the Mashhad landfill are suboptimal. Environmental and safety indicators, in particular, have been largely overlooked in landfill management practices. Establishing a dedicated HSE system within the waste management framework of Mashhad's municipal administration could significantly enhance these indicators. 

Human health is a fundamental right and a valuable asset for all members of a society at any level and social class. The existence of a strong and stable health system in a country displays the all-round stability of that society. The three main characteristics for evaluating the performance of the health system include the health status of the community, citizens' satisfaction with the services provided by the health sector, and protection against financial risks. Therefore, the aim of the current research was to design an efficient model for cost management of non-surgical cancer treatment in Iran.

This was a descriptive-analytical study with a survey method conducted in 2018. The method of data collection was a library (through examining hospital records) and the tool used was a questionnaire. For this purpose, an available sample consisting of 50 elites from the fields of health service management and health economics was selected and were asked to answer the designed questionnaire. The data collected by means of the main statistics used in the Delphi technique were the central measurements (mean, median and mean) and dispersion index, standard deviation and interquartile range.

The amount of extracted variances was 0.529 after management of visit costs, 0.518 after management of diagnosis costs, 0.494 after management of hospitalization costs, 0.496 after management of chemotherapy costs, and 0.501 after management of radiation therapy costs. These results indicated that the amount of extracted variances was higher than 0.5; moreover, all the AVE values of the model dimensions were lower than the combined reliability, as a result the, condition of convergent validity was established.

The results of the present study indicated that the costs of non-surgical cancer treatment could be classified into 5 main indicators, including the cost of visits, diagnosis, hospitalization, radiation therapy and chemotherapy.

This research aimed to investigate the factors affecting human resources development in social welfare based on the Delphi approach. In three rounds, this descriptive study was conducted with the Delphi technique. The statistical population was the faculty members and human resources experts in Sistan and Baluchistan province; 20 people were selected through purposive sampling. The constituent elements of human resources development in social welfare were identified during a library and internet survey. Reliable internet databases, such as Emerald, Elsevier, and Science Direct, were searched, and articles in this field were studied. The experts survey utilized a five-point rating scale ranging from completely inappropriate (1), unsuitable (2), relatively suitable (3), suitable (4), and completely suitable (5). Experts confirmed the content validity of the survey. Kendall's coefficient was employed to assess the level of agreement among the experts. The aim was to identify the dimensions, indicators, and components of the human resources development model in social welfare. To achieve this, the Department of Cooperative, Labor, and Social Welfare and several experts' opinions were sought and considered. Ten dimensions (social-cultural, creativity, job knowledge, organizational knowledge, intellectual, decision-making skills, communication skills, technological, behavioral, and competencies) and 35 components were identified. According to the current research on the components of resource development, any activity based on the development of employees in this sector will lead to significant results in promoting public services.

Medical tourism in Yazd city has been greatly developed as one of the treatment poles of the country and can be said that this industry has become one of the development axes of Yazd city. The purpose of this research is to identify the most important factors influencing the attraction of non-native medical tourists to the historical city of Yazd.

The current research was of a qualitative type conducted in the fall of 1401. Desk research and Delphi method were used to collect data. The statistical sample of this study included 41 experts in the fields of treatment, tourism, and urban planning, and these experts were selected based on their related specialties using a snowball method. After studying the theoretical foundations of the research, 41 effective factors in attracting medical tourists were specified from related research texts, and during studying, categorization and editing, 23 indicators were provided to the experts in the form of a questionnaire on a 5-point Likert scale, and at the end of the questionnaire, an open question was provided. After analyzing the answers, the results were recorded and a new questionnaire was created for the next stage, which was repeated 3 times. According to the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 0.05, the correlation between the factors was analyzed using the W. Kendall non-parametric correlation test and the SPSS 18 software, and the Delphi technique was used to achieve the research objectives.

In the course of data analysis, indicators with an average difference of less than 0.1 were confirmed, indicators with an average of less than 4 were removed, and other indicators were moved to the next stage. After completing 3 stages of the test, 12 factors were identified as the most important factors affecting medical tourism in Yazd city, and these factors were placed in 5 categories: characteristics of the treatment staff, characteristics of the hospital, economic factors, giving information and communication, and other related factors. According to W. Kendall's correlation coefficients obtained during the 3 Delphi steps, the convergence and agreement of experts' opinions were confirmed.

Considering that infrastructure indicators, personnel skills and economic factors are among the most important indicators of attracting medical tourists to the historical city of Yazd, it is suggested that to develop medical tourism in Yazd city, these items should be taken into consideration in managing the current situation of medical centers; Furthermore, investment should focus on the development of medical infrastructure.

This study aimed to design a model for developing health system partnerships by using electronic word-of-mouth communication. This issue has recently attracted the attention of researchers and managers of the country’s public and private sectors.

In this qualitative study, the meta-composite method and Delphi technique were employed. The data collection tools included library studies and review of articles related to the research background. First, relevant information and findings were extracted from reliable national and international scientific databases using the meta-combination method, and then the opinions of the expert panel were recorded using a questionnaire. After two stages of opinion polling, the initial findings of refinement and unnecessary items were merged or deleted. Finally, the components and indicators affecting the development of health system partnerships were identified and categorized through word-of-mouth communication.

Out of 66 primary codes extracted by metacombination method, 36 final indicators were identified by the experts using Delphi method. The identified indicators were then divided into three categories and nine components including Creation Factors with “structural and contextual, economic and financial, communication, and interactive” components, Diffusion Factors with “organizational and institutional, legal and contractual, awareness, and trust building” components, as well as Impact Factors with “legal and regulatory, technical and specialized, and acceptability and effectiveness” components.

A new model and perspective was presented for developing health system partnerships through electronic word-of-mouth communication, so that the enormous economic, social, and cultural potentials of the public, private, and charitable sectors may have been exploited for developing health and treatment through using new marketing tools and modern technologies.

Every organization has an identity that is based on organizational culture. Organizations, like individuals, have personality, which is called the culture of that organization. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the components of organizational culture in medical universities and present a conceptual model using the Delphi technique.

To conduct the research, semi-structured interviews with 15 experts, including university professors in the field of organizational culture at Lorestan University of Medical Sciences and the Delphi method were used. In this paper, three basic steps of qualitative methods included; Open coding, axial coding, and selective coding and then the validity of the extracted codes was checked by Delphi method.

The findings showed that in the case of creating and forming friendly groups in universities of medical sciences in order to improve relations and proper cooperation in terms of presenting ideas, opinions and also solving problems, it creates a favorable organizational culture in universities. Medical science will be.in this section, the survey has been conducted in several stages to reach the consensus of the experts for the components. The components identified in the qualitative phase were presented to 15 experts in the form of a closed questionnaire. Then the average answers were calculated using Excel software. The purpose of the Delphi method is to reach the most reliable group agreement of experts on a specific issue, which is done by using questionnaires and asking experts' opinions, repeatedly, according to their feedback. This process continues until the average numbers become stable enough. In this research, the minimum average value of the answers is 3.5 and the difference of opinion for the Delphi averages is 1 (the lowest number in the response spectrum). If the average response is less than 3.5 or the amount of disagreement is greater than 1, the corresponding component will be removed. In the first stage of Delphi, the identified components were presented to the experts in the form of a 5-option Delphi questionnaire, and the average answers were calculated. At this stage, the average answers given for the components of risk acceptance, the importance of work to satisfy personal needs, personal influence, the effort to participate in the public-private sector, and creating an atmosphere without fear and intimidation were less than 3.5, and therefore this component were removed from the process. Kendall's coefficient of agreement in the first stage was equal to 0.569, which shows that the experts' agreement in this stage is average. In the second stage of Delphi, the Delphi questionnaire was again provided to the experts and the average answers and also the average difference with the previous stage were calculated. At this stage, the average difference in all identified components is less than 1, but the average components of voluntary coordination and voluntary presence of people to carry out assigned tasks, sensitivity to the needs, desires and personal problems of organization members, creating a communication network and alliance with Good people, the independence of employees and team members for how to do work and design a happy and stimulating work environment was less than 3.5. Therefore, these components were also removed from the process and the third round of Delphi was conducted. Kendall's coefficient was 0.590 in the second stage, which shows that the experts' agreement in this stage is average. In the third round, the average difference in all components is below 1, and also the average of all identified components is higher than 3.5. Also, Kendall's coefficient was obtained in the third stage equal to 0.690, which shows that the level of agreement of the experts in this stage is almost high. Therefore, all the indicators that entered the third round of Delphi were evaluated according to experts and therefore these indicators were approved. According to the results obtained from the Delphi method, finally 8 main components and 54 secondary components were identified. According to the number of experts, the content validity index of CVR is confirmed. Also, the Cronbach's alpha coefficient in all components is above 0.7, which shows the acceptable reliability of the components questionnaire.

The purpose of the current research was to analyze the components of organizational culture in universities of medical sciences using the Delphi technique. Based on the results, 8 main components and 64 sub-components were identified as organizational culture components in medical sciences universities. First, the questionnaire made by the researcher and the answer package was provided to the experts. Then it was done by Delphi method in three rounds until we reached the agreement of the experts for the components. In the first round, 5 sub-components and in the second round, 5 other sub-components were removed from the study process. Kendall's coefficient in the first and second rounds is 0.569 and 0.590, respectively, which shows that the experts' agreement in these two rounds is average. In the third round, the average difference in all components was below 1 and also the average of all identified components was higher than 3.5. Kendall's coefficient was also obtained at 0.690 in the third stage, which shows that the level of agreement of the experts in this stage was almost high. Therefore, all the indicators that entered the third round of Delphi were evaluated and approved by experts. Therefore, in the end, 8 main components and 54 sub-components were identified.According to the results of this study, the components of organizational culture in Lorestan University of Medical Sciences include shared responsibility; team orientation; The main result; desirable communication pattern; adaptability; governance and leadership; The emphasis is on details and ideation and individual creativity. Based on the results obtained, it can be said that in universities of medical sciences, the factors that define the organizational culture of the university are joint responsibility and cooperation among the members of the organization, attention to teamwork, correct communication. , friendly and favorable among the members of the organization, accuracy in the results and considering it important, adapting the members of the organization to the conditions and problems created, the presence of a competent and capable manager in the university, emphasizing the details of the problems of the university and trying to provide a solution for it. It is a collective and team form, as well as expression of creativity and ideas by all members of the university. If groups are formed in a friendly manner in universities of medical sciences to create cooperation and proper relationships to solve problems and also to present ideas and opinions, a favorable organizational culture will be implemented in universities of medical sciences. Therefore, it is suggested that the universities of medical sciences of the country pay attention to teamwork and cooperation among the members of the organization so that they can use the opinions and ideas of all people. If all employees have a sense of responsibility in the university and adapt themselves to the conditions, it can be said that an organizational culture has been implemented in the university. The requirement for this is to pay attention to the details available in the university as well as the results obtained from the cooperation of the members of the organization.

The present study was designed and conducted to identify and determine the parameters of health, safety, and environment (HSE) affecting cloud computing in providing intelligent services in the rail transportation system.

This cross-sectional study was carried out based on the Delphi technique and expert opinions on the rail transportation system in 2020. This research was performed in five steps, including a comprehensive review of the related literature, identification, presentation of HSE parameters affecting cloud computing in providing intelligent services in the rail transportation system, and three Delphi rounds. Sixteen experts participated in the field of HSE and rail transportation. The coefficient of variation (CV) and desirability of each parameter were considered at < 20% and ≥ 4, respectively.

Based on this Delphi study, 15 parameters related to HSE and influential on cloud computing technology in the provision of intelligent services in the rail transportation system were introduced. Moreover, the CV index was estimated at 8.0%. The parameters of future research, the existence of a skilled workforce, and cloud service resource management tools had the highest degree of desirability (4.875).

The findings indicated that identifying functions and challenges of HSE regarding cloud computing technology in the rail transportation system could help decision-makers to improve effective services in the rail transportation system and reduce the associated risks.