Estimation of Cancer Cases in Golestan Province between 2004-2006 by Using Capture-Recapture Method

Backgrounds and Under-ascertainment is a common phenomenon in surveillance systems and health related events registry systems. One of the methods which has been applied to determine the sensitivity of surveillance or registry systems is capture-recapture method. This study was aimed to estimate the cancer cases in the province of Golestan in Iran using available data in two cancer registry centers. The Capture-Recapture (CR) method was employed to estimate cancer cases in the province of Golestan. All cancer cases registered within the boundaries of Golestan province during the study period from 2004 to 2006 constitutes the population size of this study. The population was derived from the two cancer registry centers and entered into Microsoft Excel software. After removing duplicate cases by finding the common cases، the data was analyzed in Capture-Recapture 1. 4 (CARE 1. 4) software. Estimations were calculated by Chapman and Petersen methods at the 95% confidence interval (CI). Overall، the estimated number of all cancer cases was 5436 (CI 95%: 5386-5495) over the period of three years from 2004 to 2006. The sensitivity rate of Golestan center for all cancer cases was 88. 9% while it was 47% in the Babol center. The sensitivity rate of the two sources، in combination was 94. 1%. The results of this study indicate that better estimation of cancers cases can be achieved by using two registry lists and applying CR method than using a single source.